PITSteelers
6-6
6
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
15°F
25 mph
13
CLEBrowns
1-11
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
15°F
25 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Steelers
0
3
3
0
6
Browns
3
10
0
0
13
Spread
+10
Total
UNDER
34
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
216
255
Total Plays
62
57
Yards / Play
3.5
4.5
EPA / Play
-0.18
-0.08
Passing Yards
141
84
Comp/Att
18/32(56%)
6/19(32%)
Yards / Pass
4.4
4.4
EPA / Pass
-0.35
-0.41
Rushing Yards
75
171
Rush Attempts
22
37
Yards / Rush
3.4
4.6
EPA / Rush
-0.03
+0.10
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
12
Passing 1st downs
9
3
Rushing 1st downs
5
8
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
21%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
3
6
3rd Down Attempts
14
16
Red Zone %
0%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
8
1
Sack Yards
-60
-6
Sack EPA
-12.88
-1.12
Penalties
4
6
Penalty Yards
40
55
Penalty EPA
-3.53
-6.47
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-10.0
Current
-10.0
Model
-10.0
Win Probability
Market80.1%
Model80.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-237
Home nfelo
1,309
Away nfelo
1,587
Home Field
+34.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+6.6
Home QB Adjustment
+25.7
Away QB Adjustment
+19.1
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-241.9
Model Spread
+10.0
Quarterbacks
B. Roethlisberger
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+19.1
B. Quinn
Proj. Value
-4.9
Team Elo Adj
+25.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Steelers Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
21
Yards / Game
7
31
Passing Yards / Game
3
28
Rushing Yards / Game
20
28
EPA
EPA / Play
7
24
EPA / Pass
10
29
EPA / Rush
14
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
23
Interceptions / Game
10
29
Fumbles / Game
19
28
Turnover EPA / Game
13
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
17
4th Down Efficiency
4
15
RZ Efficiency
26
4
Browns Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
29
11
Yards / Game
32
6
Passing Yards / Game
30
31
Rushing Yards / Game
8
5
EPA
EPA / Play
27
22
EPA / Pass
32
13
EPA / Rush
15
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
2
Interceptions / Game
22
25
Fumbles / Game
25
16
Turnover EPA / Game
6
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
28
4th Down Efficiency
4
30
RZ Efficiency
28
6
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Steelers
5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
7-3
O/U
Browns
1-9
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U