PITSteelers
9-6
28
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
34°F
18 mph
12
CLEBrowns
3-12
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
34°F
18 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Steelers
7
7
3
11
28
Browns
3
6
0
3
12
Spread
-13
Total
UNDER
47
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
381
263
Total Plays
56
76
Yards / Play
6.8
3.5
EPA / Play
-0.15
-0.38
Passing Yards
--
177
Comp/Att
24/37(65%)
24/46(52%)
Yards / Pass
--
3.8
EPA / Pass
+0.15
-0.58
Rushing Yards
30
86
Rush Attempts
19
23
Yards / Rush
1.6
3.7
EPA / Rush
-0.50
-0.05
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
22
Passing 1st downs
16
12
Rushing 1st downs
--
5
Penalty 1st downs
--
5
3rd Down %
25%
25%
3rd Down Conversions
2
4
3rd Down Attempts
8
16
Red Zone %
75%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
3
--
Red Zone Attempts
4
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
4
Interceptions
2
2
Fumbles
1
2
Turnover EPA
-16.29
-16.66
Sacks
--
7
Sack Yards
--
-63
Sack EPA
--
-14.69
Penalties
9
8
Penalty Yards
45
47
Penalty EPA
-4.93
-5.05
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-10.0
Current
-13.0
Model
-13.0
Win Probability
Market85.2%
Model85.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-299
Home nfelo
1,381
Away nfelo
1,617
Home Field
+32.1
Base HFA
+58.6
Divisional Adj
-26.4
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-95.6
Home QB Adjustment
-65.4
Away QB Adjustment
+30.2
Market Regression
-40.4
Final Difference
-304.1
Model Spread
+13.0
Quarterbacks
B. Roethlisberger
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+30.2
A. Davis
Proj. Value
-5.4
Team Elo Adj
-65.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Steelers Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
29
Yards / Game
3
28
Passing Yards / Game
13
2
Rushing Yards / Game
14
30
EPA
EPA / Play
9
29
EPA / Pass
12
30
EPA / Rush
7
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
2
Interceptions / Game
29
20
Fumbles / Game
7
9
Turnover EPA / Game
16
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
21
4th Down Efficiency
29
27
RZ Efficiency
13
20
Browns Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
9
Yards / Game
26
19
Passing Yards / Game
12
30
Rushing Yards / Game
22
5
EPA
EPA / Play
29
9
EPA / Pass
28
13
EPA / Rush
18
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
18
Interceptions / Game
11
8
Fumbles / Game
31
2
Turnover EPA / Game
6
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
15
4th Down Efficiency
26
4
RZ Efficiency
32
6
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Steelers
6-4
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Browns
1-9
SU
3-7
ATS
3-7
O/U