PITSteelers
2-2
24
TBD
Qualcomm Stadium
93°F
10 mph
20
LACChargers
2-2
TBD
Qualcomm Stadium
93°F
10 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Steelers
0
3
1
14
18
Chargers
7
0
0
13
20
Spread
+4
Total
UNDER
45.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
349
406
Total Plays
56
69
Yards / Play
6.2
5.9
EPA / Play
+0.05
-0.04
Passing Yards
194
354
Comp/Att
13/26(50%)
35/48(73%)
Yards / Pass
7.5
7.4
EPA / Pass
-0.09
+0.07
Rushing Yards
155
52
Rush Attempts
27
19
Yards / Rush
5.7
2.7
EPA / Rush
+0.19
-0.39
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
14
24
Passing 1st downs
5
20
Rushing 1st downs
8
2
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
36%
29%
3rd Down Conversions
5
4
3rd Down Attempts
14
14
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
1
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-0.24
-13.56
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-9
-11
Sack EPA
-4.23
-2.26
Penalties
8
7
Penalty Yards
86
54
Penalty EPA
-8.91
-7.53
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LACChargersFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-4.0
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market64.7%
Model64.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+130
Home nfelo
1,486
Away nfelo
1,554
Home Field
+96.0
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+33.5
Net QB Adjustment
+102.3
Home QB Adjustment
+6.0
Away QB Adjustment
-96.3
Market Regression
+15.3
Final Difference
105.3
Model Spread
-4.0
Quarterbacks
M. Vick
Proj. Value
-2.6
Team Elo Adj
-96.3
P. Rivers
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+6.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Steelers Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
21
Yards / Game
3
21
Passing Yards / Game
13
17
Rushing Yards / Game
14
27
EPA
EPA / Play
9
30
EPA / Pass
12
19
EPA / Rush
7
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
13
Interceptions / Game
29
20
Fumbles / Game
7
15
Turnover EPA / Game
16
6
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
13
4th Down Efficiency
29
32
RZ Efficiency
13
7
Chargers Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
9
Yards / Game
7
19
Passing Yards / Game
1
30
Rushing Yards / Game
30
5
EPA
EPA / Play
18
9
EPA / Pass
11
13
EPA / Rush
31
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
18
Interceptions / Game
16
8
Fumbles / Game
21
2
Turnover EPA / Game
15
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
15
4th Down Efficiency
29
4
RZ Efficiency
7
6
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Steelers
6-4
SU
7-2-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Chargers
5-5
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U