PITSteelers
5-3
10
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
025
LACChargers
6-3
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Steelers
3
0
0
7
10
Chargers
0
10
3
10
23
Spread
-3
Total
UNDER
45.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
221
314
Total Plays
50
69
Yards / Play
4.4
4.6
EPA / Play
-0.40
-0.07
Passing Yards
148
199
Comp/Att
16/31(52%)
20/33(61%)
Yards / Pass
4.8
6.0
EPA / Pass
-0.58
-0.20
Rushing Yards
73
115
Rush Attempts
16
31
Yards / Rush
4.6
3.7
EPA / Rush
-0.05
-0.03
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
11
18
Passing 1st downs
6
7
Rushing 1st downs
4
11
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
18%
35%
3rd Down Conversions
2
6
3rd Down Attempts
11
17
Red Zone %
0%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
1
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-10.13
+4.55
Sacks
3
5
Sack Yards
-13
-21
Sack EPA
-3.92
-7.69
Penalties
4
8
Penalty Yards
29
55
Penalty EPA
-2.99
-5.90
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LACChargersFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+114
Home nfelo
1,524
Away nfelo
1,497
Home Field
+80.4
Base HFA
+42.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.9
Time Adj
+22.9
Net QB Adjustment
+7.0
Home QB Adjustment
+12.8
Away QB Adjustment
+5.8
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
-0.0
Team Elo Adj
+5.8
J. Herbert
Proj. Value
-0.1
Team Elo Adj
+12.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Steelers Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
11
Yards / Game
28
4
Passing Yards / Game
29
4
Rushing Yards / Game
29
18
EPA
EPA / Play
10
10
EPA / Pass
14
4
EPA / Rush
19
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
5
Interceptions / Game
16
7
Fumbles / Game
6
32
Turnover EPA / Game
30
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
6
4th Down Efficiency
20
18
RZ Efficiency
9
8
Chargers Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
16
Yards / Game
11
28
Passing Yards / Game
2
32
Rushing Yards / Game
15
13
EPA
EPA / Play
22
16
EPA / Pass
22
17
EPA / Rush
11
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
24
Interceptions / Game
25
8
Fumbles / Game
15
1
Turnover EPA / Game
8
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
24
4th Down Efficiency
9
28
RZ Efficiency
26
6
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Steelers
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Chargers
6-4
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U