PITSteelers
4-2
13
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
58°F
7 mph
23
KCChiefs
1-5
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
58°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Steelers
3
0
7
3
13
Chiefs
3
6
7
7
23
Spread
-3
Total
UNDER
41.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
339
377
Total Plays
55
63
Yards / Play
6.2
6.0
EPA / Play
-0.06
+0.09
Passing Yards
192
239
Comp/Att
16/29(55%)
21/32(66%)
Yards / Pass
6.6
7.5
EPA / Pass
-0.28
+0.21
Rushing Yards
147
138
Rush Attempts
24
29
Yards / Rush
6.1
4.8
EPA / Rush
+0.08
-0.03
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
18
Passing 1st downs
9
11
Rushing 1st downs
7
7
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
20%
56%
3rd Down Conversions
2
9
3rd Down Attempts
10
16
Red Zone %
33%
40%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-12.92
--
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-17
-12
Sack EPA
-5.96
-2.80
Penalties
1
6
Penalty Yards
--
66
Penalty EPA
--
-5.99
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-2.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model61.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+124
Home nfelo
1,534
Away nfelo
1,582
Home Field
+51.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+120.2
Home QB Adjustment
-3.0
Away QB Adjustment
-123.1
Market Regression
+3.0
Final Difference
77.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
M. Jones
Proj. Value
-3.3
Team Elo Adj
-123.1
No recent game data available
A. Smith
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-3.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Steelers Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
1
Yards / Game
3
6
Passing Yards / Game
13
7
Rushing Yards / Game
14
6
EPA
EPA / Play
9
5
EPA / Pass
12
3
EPA / Rush
7
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
8
Interceptions / Game
29
2
Fumbles / Game
7
23
Turnover EPA / Game
16
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
5
4th Down Efficiency
29
15
RZ Efficiency
13
22
Chiefs Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
9
Yards / Game
25
19
Passing Yards / Game
19
30
Rushing Yards / Game
6
5
EPA
EPA / Play
5
9
EPA / Pass
15
13
EPA / Rush
1
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
18
Interceptions / Game
1
8
Fumbles / Game
7
2
Turnover EPA / Game
30
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
15
4th Down Efficiency
2
4
RZ Efficiency
12
6
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Steelers
7-3
SU
8-1-1
ATS
1-9
O/U
Chiefs
3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U