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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. steelers @ chiefs week 7, 2015

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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PIT logo
PITSteelers
4-2
13
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
58°F
7 mph
23
KCChiefs
1-5
KC logo
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
58°F
7 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Steelers
3
0
7
3
13
Chiefs
3
6
7
7
23

Spread

KC logo
-3

Total

UNDER
41.5

Game Statistics

General
Steelers logo
Chiefs logo
Total Yards
339
377
Total Plays
55
63
Yards / Play
6.2
6.0
EPA / Play
-0.06
+0.09
Passing Yards
192
239
Comp/Att
16/29(55%)
21/32(66%)
Yards / Pass
6.6
7.5
EPA / Pass
-0.28
+0.21
Rushing Yards
147
138
Rush Attempts
24
29
Yards / Rush
6.1
4.8
EPA / Rush
+0.08
-0.03
Downs & Conversions
Steelers logo
Chiefs logo
1st Downs
18
18
Passing 1st downs
9
11
Rushing 1st downs
7
7
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
20%
56%
3rd Down Conversions
2
9
3rd Down Attempts
10
16
Red Zone %
33%
40%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
5
Negative Plays
Steelers logo
Chiefs logo
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-12.92
--
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-17
-12
Sack EPA
-5.96
-2.80
Penalties
1
6
Penalty Yards
--
66
Penalty EPA
--
-5.99

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
KC logo
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-2.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.3%
Model60.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+122
Home nfelo
1,534
Away nfelo
1,583
Home Field
+51.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+120.2
Home QB Adjustment
-3.0
Away QB Adjustment
-123.1
Market Regression
+3.5
Final Difference
77.0
Model Spread
-3.0

Quarterbacks

M. Jones headshot

M. Jones

Proj. Value
-3.3
Team Elo Adj
-123.1
No recent game data available
A. Smith headshot

A. Smith

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-3.0
Value
Ptile
11/30
-7.3
10
12/07
-0.9
44
12/14
4.0
77
12/21
-2.5
32
09/13
4.4
80
09/17
-7.2
7
09/28
-4.0
21
10/04
1.9
64
10/11
-3.4
26
10/18
1.2
59

Team Matchup Ranks

Steelers Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Steelers logo
Chiefs logo

Total

Points / Game
7
1
Yards / Game
3
6
Passing Yards / Game
13
7
Rushing Yards / Game
14
6

EPA

EPA / Play
9
5
EPA / Pass
12
3
EPA / Rush
7
9

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
28
8
Interceptions / Game
29
2
Fumbles / Game
7
23
Turnover EPA / Game
16
31

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
24
5
4th Down Efficiency
29
15
RZ Efficiency
13
22
Chiefs Offense vs Steelers Defense
Chiefs logo
Steelers logo

Total

Points / Game
9
9
Yards / Game
25
19
Passing Yards / Game
19
30
Rushing Yards / Game
6
5

EPA

EPA / Play
5
9
EPA / Pass
15
13
EPA / Rush
1
3

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
26
18
Interceptions / Game
1
8
Fumbles / Game
7
2
Turnover EPA / Game
30
28

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
12
15
4th Down Efficiency
2
4
RZ Efficiency
12
6

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

PIT logo

Steelers

7-3
SU
8-1-1
ATS
1-9
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/14
7
W
W
U
12/21
8
W
W
U
12/28
10
W
W
U
01/03
-13
L
L
U
09/10
-7
L
W
U
09/20
25
W
W
O
09/27
6
W
W
U
10/01
-3
L
P
U
10/12
4
W
W
U
10/18
12
W
W
U
KC logo

Chiefs

3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/07
-3
L
L
U
12/14
18
W
W
O
12/21
-8
L
L
U
12/28
12
W
W
U
09/13
7
W
W
O
09/17
-7
L
L
O
09/28
-10
L
L
O
10/04
-15
L
L
O
10/11
-1
L
L
U
10/18
-6
L
L
U