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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. steelers @ chiefs week 11, 2009

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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PIT logo
PITSteelers
6-3
24
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
55°F
5 mph
27
KCChiefs
2-7
KC logo
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
55°F
5 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Steelers
0
17
0
7
0
24
Chiefs
7
0
10
7
3
27

Spread

KC logo
+11.5

Total

OVER
39.5

Game Statistics

General
Steelers logo
Chiefs logo
Total Yards
515
282
Total Plays
78
55
Yards / Play
6.6
5.1
EPA / Play
+0.04
+0.06
Passing Yards
401
214
Comp/Att
33/44(75%)
15/30(50%)
Yards / Pass
9.1
7.1
EPA / Pass
+0.16
-0.12
Rushing Yards
114
68
Rush Attempts
31
20
Yards / Rush
3.7
3.4
EPA / Rush
-0.09
-0.02
Downs & Conversions
Steelers logo
Chiefs logo
1st Downs
27
13
Passing 1st downs
20
8
Rushing 1st downs
6
4
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
31%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
4
6
3rd Down Attempts
13
15
Red Zone %
60%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
5
3
Negative Plays
Steelers logo
Chiefs logo
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-15.94
-4.52
Sacks
3
5
Sack Yards
-14
-34
Sack EPA
-3.65
-8.42
Penalties
8
4
Penalty Yards
85
28
Penalty EPA
-8.56
-1.78

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
PIT logo
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-11.0
Current
-11.5
Model
-11.5

Win Probability

Market83.2%
Model83.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-246
Home nfelo
1,323
Away nfelo
1,619
Home Field
+51.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-1.3
Home QB Adjustment
+6.7
Away QB Adjustment
+7.9
Market Regression
-8.6
Final Difference
-277.9
Model Spread
+11.5

Quarterbacks

B. Roethlisberger headshot

B. Roethlisberger

Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+7.9
Value
Ptile
02/01
-0.9
46
09/10
2.7
67
09/20
1.7
61
09/27
4.7
80
10/04
6.4
87
10/11
2.1
64
10/18
5.2
83
10/25
-3.4
28
11/09
2.5
66
11/15
-7.3
9
M. Cassel headshot

M. Cassel

Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
+6.7
Value
Ptile
12/21
7.4
92
12/28
-2.6
30
09/20
-0.1
48
09/27
-0.4
47
10/04
-3.5
27
10/11
1.6
60
10/18
-5.6
16
10/25
-13.5
1
11/08
0.4
53
11/15
-4.2
23

Team Matchup Ranks

Steelers Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Steelers logo
Chiefs logo

Total

Points / Game
12
29
Yards / Game
7
30
Passing Yards / Game
3
8
Rushing Yards / Game
20
30

EPA

EPA / Play
7
25
EPA / Pass
10
18
EPA / Rush
14
27

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
31
5
Interceptions / Game
10
16
Fumbles / Game
19
7
Turnover EPA / Game
13
25

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
17
14
4th Down Efficiency
4
24
RZ Efficiency
26
22
Chiefs Offense vs Steelers Defense
Chiefs logo
Steelers logo

Total

Points / Game
23
11
Yards / Game
25
6
Passing Yards / Game
20
31
Rushing Yards / Game
12
5

EPA

EPA / Play
26
22
EPA / Pass
26
13
EPA / Rush
26
19

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
2
2
Interceptions / Game
18
25
Fumbles / Game
13
16
Turnover EPA / Game
18
7

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
31
28
4th Down Efficiency
17
30
RZ Efficiency
23
6

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

PIT logo

Steelers

7-3
SU
3-7
ATS
4-5-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
02/01
4
W
L
P
09/10
3
W
L
U
09/20
-3
L
L
U
09/27
-3
L
L
O
10/04
10
W
W
O
10/11
8
W
L
O
10/18
13
W
L
O
10/25
10
W
W
U
11/09
18
W
W
U
11/15
-6
L
L
U
KC logo

Chiefs

2-8
SU
4-6
ATS
4-3-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/28
-10
L
L
P
09/13
-14
L
L
O
09/20
-3
L
L
U
09/27
-20
L
L
O
10/04
-11
L
L
P
10/11
-6
L
W
O
10/18
8
W
W
U
10/25
-30
L
L
P
11/08
-3
L
W
O
11/15
6
W
W
U