PITSteelers
6-3
24
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
55°F
5 mph
27
KCChiefs
2-7
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
55°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Steelers
0
17
0
7
0
24
Chiefs
7
0
10
7
3
27
Spread
+11.5
Total
OVER
39.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
515
282
Total Plays
78
55
Yards / Play
6.6
5.1
EPA / Play
+0.04
+0.06
Passing Yards
401
214
Comp/Att
33/44(75%)
15/30(50%)
Yards / Pass
9.1
7.1
EPA / Pass
+0.16
-0.12
Rushing Yards
114
68
Rush Attempts
31
20
Yards / Rush
3.7
3.4
EPA / Rush
-0.09
-0.02
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
27
13
Passing 1st downs
20
8
Rushing 1st downs
6
4
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
31%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
4
6
3rd Down Attempts
13
15
Red Zone %
60%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
5
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-15.94
-4.52
Sacks
3
5
Sack Yards
-14
-34
Sack EPA
-3.65
-8.42
Penalties
8
4
Penalty Yards
85
28
Penalty EPA
-8.56
-1.78
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-11.0
Current
-11.5
Model
-11.5
Win Probability
Market83.2%
Model83.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-248
Home nfelo
1,323
Away nfelo
1,622
Home Field
+51.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-1.3
Home QB Adjustment
+6.7
Away QB Adjustment
+7.9
Market Regression
-8.6
Final Difference
-277.9
Model Spread
+11.5
Quarterbacks
B. Roethlisberger
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+7.9
M. Cassel
Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
+6.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Steelers Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
29
Yards / Game
7
30
Passing Yards / Game
3
8
Rushing Yards / Game
20
30
EPA
EPA / Play
7
25
EPA / Pass
10
18
EPA / Rush
14
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
5
Interceptions / Game
10
16
Fumbles / Game
19
7
Turnover EPA / Game
13
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
14
4th Down Efficiency
4
24
RZ Efficiency
26
22
Chiefs Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
11
Yards / Game
25
6
Passing Yards / Game
20
31
Rushing Yards / Game
12
5
EPA
EPA / Play
26
22
EPA / Pass
26
13
EPA / Rush
26
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
2
Interceptions / Game
18
25
Fumbles / Game
13
16
Turnover EPA / Game
18
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
28
4th Down Efficiency
17
30
RZ Efficiency
23
6
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Steelers
7-3
SU
3-7
ATS
4-5-1
O/U
Chiefs
2-8
SU
4-6
ATS
4-3-3
O/U