PITSteelers
12-5
18
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
33°F
9 mph
16
KCChiefs
12-4
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
33°F
9 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Steelers
6
6
3
3
18
Chiefs
7
0
3
6
16
Spread
+2
Total
UNDER
45.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
389
227
Total Plays
66
50
Yards / Play
5.9
4.5
EPA / Play
+0.06
-0.07
Passing Yards
218
166
Comp/Att
20/31(65%)
20/35(57%)
Yards / Pass
7.0
4.7
EPA / Pass
-0.13
-0.13
Rushing Yards
171
61
Rush Attempts
34
14
Yards / Rush
5.0
4.4
EPA / Rush
+0.18
+0.02
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
16
Passing 1st downs
10
9
Rushing 1st downs
10
4
Penalty 1st downs
--
3
3rd Down %
47%
22%
3rd Down Conversions
7
2
3rd Down Attempts
15
9
Red Zone %
0%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-6.38
-5.76
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-6
-6
Sack EPA
-1.25
-2.24
Penalties
4
6
Penalty Yards
53
--
Penalty EPA
-5.32
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
-2.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market54.2%
Model59.2%
Spread Pick
Chiefs-2.0
Expected Value
+10.7%
Cover Probability
55.4%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+121
Home nfelo
1,631
Away nfelo
1,619
Home Field
+84.0
Base HFA
+57.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+16.4
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+10.3
Net QB Adjustment
+14.8
Home QB Adjustment
+14.2
Away QB Adjustment
-0.7
Market Regression
-3.0
Final Difference
64.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
B. Roethlisberger
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
-0.7
A. Smith
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+14.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Steelers Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
6
Yards / Game
6
23
Passing Yards / Game
25
17
Rushing Yards / Game
8
27
EPA
EPA / Play
6
9
EPA / Pass
7
7
EPA / Rush
3
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
25
23
Interceptions / Game
21
3
Fumbles / Game
4
1
Turnover EPA / Game
20
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
28
4th Down Efficiency
11
15
RZ Efficiency
16
4
Chiefs Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
10
Yards / Game
21
10
Passing Yards / Game
21
10
Rushing Yards / Game
19
8
EPA
EPA / Play
12
18
EPA / Pass
16
15
EPA / Rush
12
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
32
Interceptions / Game
8
19
Fumbles / Game
23
15
Turnover EPA / Game
22
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
24
4th Down Efficiency
4
19
RZ Efficiency
28
5
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Steelers
8-2
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U
Chiefs
8-2
SU
7-3
ATS
4-6
O/U