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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. steelers @ chiefs week 19, 2016

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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PIT logo
PITSteelers
12-5
18
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
33°F
9 mph
16
KCChiefs
12-4
KC logo
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
33°F
9 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Steelers
6
6
3
3
18
Chiefs
7
0
3
6
16

Spread

PIT logo
+2

Total

UNDER
45.5

Game Statistics

General
Steelers logo
Chiefs logo
Total Yards
389
227
Total Plays
66
50
Yards / Play
5.9
4.5
EPA / Play
+0.06
-0.07
Passing Yards
218
166
Comp/Att
20/31(65%)
20/35(57%)
Yards / Pass
7.0
4.7
EPA / Pass
-0.13
-0.13
Rushing Yards
171
61
Rush Attempts
34
14
Yards / Rush
5.0
4.4
EPA / Rush
+0.18
+0.02
Downs & Conversions
Steelers logo
Chiefs logo
1st Downs
20
16
Passing 1st downs
10
9
Rushing 1st downs
10
4
Penalty 1st downs
--
3
3rd Down %
47%
22%
3rd Down Conversions
7
2
3rd Down Attempts
15
9
Red Zone %
0%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Steelers logo
Chiefs logo
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-6.38
-5.76
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-6
-6
Sack EPA
-1.25
-2.24
Penalties
4
6
Penalty Yards
53
--
Penalty EPA
-5.32
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
KC logo
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
-2.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market54.2%
Model59.1%
Spread Pick
KC logo
Chiefs-2.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+10.7%
Cover Probability
55.4%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+120
Home nfelo
1,628
Away nfelo
1,619
Home Field
+85.1
Base HFA
+58.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+16.6
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+10.4
Net QB Adjustment
+14.8
Home QB Adjustment
+14.2
Away QB Adjustment
-0.7
Market Regression
-2.7
Final Difference
63.8
Model Spread
-3.0

Quarterbacks

B. Roethlisberger headshot

B. Roethlisberger

Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
-0.7
Value
Ptile
10/16
-6.9
8
11/06
-1.7
36
11/13
12.1
99
11/20
-2.4
31
11/24
4.4
81
12/04
2.2
65
12/11
-7.4
6
12/18
0.8
55
12/25
3.7
76
01/08
-2.3
31
A. Smith headshot

A. Smith

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+14.2
Value
Ptile
10/23
2.3
67
10/30
-3.8
21
11/13
-5.1
15
11/20
5.0
83
11/27
-4.1
19
12/04
2.7
71
12/08
-0.4
46
12/18
-3.9
20
12/25
8.6
94
01/01
6.3
87

Team Matchup Ranks

Steelers Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Steelers logo
Chiefs logo

Total

Points / Game
12
6
Yards / Game
6
23
Passing Yards / Game
25
17
Rushing Yards / Game
8
27

EPA

EPA / Play
6
9
EPA / Pass
7
7
EPA / Rush
3
24

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
25
23
Interceptions / Game
21
3
Fumbles / Game
4
1
Turnover EPA / Game
20
32

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
10
28
4th Down Efficiency
11
15
RZ Efficiency
16
4
Chiefs Offense vs Steelers Defense
Chiefs logo
Steelers logo

Total

Points / Game
13
10
Yards / Game
21
10
Passing Yards / Game
21
10
Rushing Yards / Game
19
8

EPA

EPA / Play
12
18
EPA / Pass
16
15
EPA / Rush
12
17

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
4
32
Interceptions / Game
8
19
Fumbles / Game
23
15
Turnover EPA / Game
22
18

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
20
24
4th Down Efficiency
4
19
RZ Efficiency
28
5

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

PIT logo

Steelers

8-2
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/06
-7
L
L
U
11/13
-5
L
L
O
11/20
15
W
W
U
11/24
21
W
W
U
12/04
10
W
W
U
12/11
7
W
W
O
12/18
4
W
W
U
12/25
4
W
L
O
01/01
3
W
L
O
01/08
18
W
W
U
KC logo

Chiefs

8-2
SU
7-3
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/30
16
W
W
U
11/06
5
W
L
U
11/13
3
W
W
U
11/20
-2
L
L
U
11/27
3
W
W
O
12/04
1
W
W
O
12/08
8
W
W
U
12/18
-2
L
L
U
12/25
23
W
W
O
01/01
10
W
W
O