nfelo logo

nfelo

Live
Platform
Kalshi
$10

$10 Bonus

Receive $10 when you sign up with Kalshi prediction market

Affiliate Disclosure: Some of the links and placements on this site may be affiliate links or paid partnerships. This means nfelo may receive compensation when you click these links or sign up for a partner’s service.

Offer Disclosure: Offers are for informational purposes only. Age, location, and other restrictions may apply. nfelo does not validate offer availability. See provider for full terms.

  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. steelers @ colts week 4, 2024

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

© 2026 nfelo. All rights reserved.

Entertainment purposes only. The information contained on nfeloapp.com is not intended to be, and shall not be construed as, gambling advice, financial advice, or any other professional advice or service. nfeloapp.com and its owners assume no responsibility for errors or omissions. Please gamble responsibly.

PIT logo
PITSteelers
3-0
24
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0
27
INDColts
1-2
IND logo
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Steelers
0
3
7
14
24
Colts
14
3
0
10
27

Spread

IND logo
+2

Total

OVER
40

Game Statistics

General
Steelers logo
Colts logo
Total Yards
404
358
Total Plays
68
64
Yards / Play
5.9
5.6
EPA / Play
-0.02
+0.03
Passing Yards
282
225
Comp/Att
22/34(65%)
19/30(63%)
Yards / Pass
8.3
7.5
EPA / Pass
-0.07
+0.40
Rushing Yards
122
133
Rush Attempts
30
32
Yards / Rush
4.1
4.2
EPA / Rush
-0.05
-0.22
Downs & Conversions
Steelers logo
Colts logo
1st Downs
23
22
Passing 1st downs
11
13
Rushing 1st downs
10
7
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
46%
53%
3rd Down Conversions
6
8
3rd Down Attempts
13
15
Red Zone %
75%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
3
3
Red Zone Attempts
4
5
Negative Plays
Steelers logo
Colts logo
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-11.20
--
Sacks
4
2
Sack Yards
-30
-14
Sack EPA
-8.62
-2.65
Penalties
6
4
Penalty Yards
53
38
Penalty EPA
-5.32
-6.30

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
PIT logo
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-1.5
Current
-2.0
Model
-2.0

Win Probability

Market54.7%
Model54.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-44
Home nfelo
1,448
Away nfelo
1,543
Home Field
+63.8
Base HFA
+47.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+16.5
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-12.9
Home QB Adjustment
-8.1
Away QB Adjustment
+4.8
Market Regression
-7.7
Final Difference
-32.8
Model Spread
+2.0

Quarterbacks

J. Fields headshot

J. Fields

Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+4.8
Value
Ptile
11/19
3.3
72
11/27
1.1
56
12/10
1.7
60
12/17
-5.8
15
12/24
3.7
74
12/31
3.1
71
01/07
-6.3
13
09/08
-1.0
41
09/15
-2.7
29
09/22
2.0
62
A. Richardson headshot

A. Richardson

Proj. Value
-1.4
Team Elo Adj
-8.1
Value
Ptile
09/10
-0.8
45
09/17
2.1
64
10/01
3.8
75
10/08
-4.1
24
09/08
2.3
65
09/15
-5.5
14
09/22
-7.1
8

Team Matchup Ranks

Steelers Offense vs Colts Defense
Steelers logo
Colts logo

Total

Points / Game
20
24
Yards / Game
23
29
Passing Yards / Game
14
12
Rushing Yards / Game
12
23

EPA

EPA / Play
16
15
EPA / Pass
19
27
EPA / Rush
28
5

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
13
25
Interceptions / Game
3
5
Fumbles / Game
31
11
Turnover EPA / Game
30
25

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
12
29
4th Down Efficiency
31
11
RZ Efficiency
29
23
Colts Offense vs Steelers Defense
Colts logo
Steelers logo

Total

Points / Game
16
7
Yards / Game
13
15
Passing Yards / Game
24
23
Rushing Yards / Game
8
11

EPA

EPA / Play
23
8
EPA / Pass
23
16
EPA / Rush
17
13

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
8
8
Interceptions / Game
29
3
Fumbles / Game
22
4
Turnover EPA / Game
4
27

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
19
11
4th Down Efficiency
11
28
RZ Efficiency
23
13

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

PIT logo

Steelers

6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/03
-14
L
L
U
12/07
-3
L
L
O
12/16
-17
L
L
O
12/23
23
W
W
O
12/31
7
W
W
O
01/06
7
W
W
U
01/15
-14
L
L
O
09/08
8
W
W
U
09/15
7
W
W
U
09/22
10
W
W
U
IND logo

Colts

5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/26
7
W
W
O
12/03
3
W
W
O
12/10
-20
L
L
O
12/16
17
W
W
O
12/24
-19
L
L
U
12/31
3
W
L
O
01/06
-4
L
L
U
09/08
-2
L
W
O
09/15
-6
L
L
U
09/22
5
W
W
U