PITSteelers
3-0
24
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
027
INDColts
1-2
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Steelers
0
3
7
14
24
Colts
14
3
0
10
27
Spread
+2
Total
OVER
40
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
404
358
Total Plays
68
64
Yards / Play
5.9
5.6
EPA / Play
-0.02
+0.03
Passing Yards
282
225
Comp/Att
22/34(65%)
19/30(63%)
Yards / Pass
8.3
7.5
EPA / Pass
-0.07
+0.40
Rushing Yards
122
133
Rush Attempts
30
32
Yards / Rush
4.1
4.2
EPA / Rush
-0.05
-0.22
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
23
22
Passing 1st downs
11
13
Rushing 1st downs
10
7
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
46%
53%
3rd Down Conversions
6
8
3rd Down Attempts
13
15
Red Zone %
75%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
3
3
Red Zone Attempts
4
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-11.20
--
Sacks
4
2
Sack Yards
-30
-14
Sack EPA
-8.62
-2.65
Penalties
6
4
Penalty Yards
53
38
Penalty EPA
-5.32
-6.30
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-1.5
Current
-2.0
Model
-2.0
Win Probability
Market54.7%
Model54.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-44
Home nfelo
1,449
Away nfelo
1,543
Home Field
+62.9
Base HFA
+46.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+16.3
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-12.8
Home QB Adjustment
-8.1
Away QB Adjustment
+4.7
Market Regression
-7.7
Final Difference
-32.8
Model Spread
+2.0
Quarterbacks
J. Fields
Proj. Value
+0.1
Team Elo Adj
+4.7
A. Richardson
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
-8.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Steelers Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
24
Yards / Game
23
29
Passing Yards / Game
14
12
Rushing Yards / Game
12
23
EPA
EPA / Play
16
15
EPA / Pass
19
27
EPA / Rush
28
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
13
25
Interceptions / Game
3
5
Fumbles / Game
31
11
Turnover EPA / Game
30
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
29
4th Down Efficiency
31
11
RZ Efficiency
29
23
Colts Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
7
Yards / Game
13
15
Passing Yards / Game
24
23
Rushing Yards / Game
8
11
EPA
EPA / Play
23
8
EPA / Pass
23
16
EPA / Rush
17
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
8
8
Interceptions / Game
29
3
Fumbles / Game
22
4
Turnover EPA / Game
4
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
11
4th Down Efficiency
11
28
RZ Efficiency
23
13
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Steelers
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Colts
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U