PITSteelers
3-7
24
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
017
INDColts
4-6
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Steelers
3
13
0
8
24
Colts
0
3
14
0
17
Spread
+2.5
Total
OVER
40
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
325
290
Total Plays
68
62
Yards / Play
4.8
4.7
EPA / Play
+0.12
-0.05
Passing Yards
153
180
Comp/Att
20/29(69%)
22/34(65%)
Yards / Pass
5.3
5.3
EPA / Pass
-0.00
-0.15
Rushing Yards
172
110
Rush Attempts
36
25
Yards / Rush
4.8
4.4
EPA / Rush
+0.22
-0.20
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
19
Passing 1st downs
10
11
Rushing 1st downs
11
6
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
50%
25%
3rd Down Conversions
7
3
3rd Down Attempts
14
12
Red Zone %
67%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-11.34
Sacks
3
3
Sack Yards
-23
-19
Sack EPA
-5.83
-5.17
Penalties
3
2
Penalty Yards
19
20
Penalty EPA
-4.59
-3.66
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
INDColtsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-2.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market56.1%
Model63.1%
Spread Pick
Colts-2.5
Expected Value
+12.4%
Cover Probability
58.9%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+139
Home nfelo
1,471
Away nfelo
1,431
Home Field
+54.3
Base HFA
+40.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.1
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+44.1
Home QB Adjustment
+17.5
Away QB Adjustment
-26.6
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
93.2
Model Spread
-3.5
Quarterbacks
K. Pickett
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
-26.6
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+17.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Steelers Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
28
Yards / Game
23
15
Passing Yards / Game
20
18
Rushing Yards / Game
16
20
EPA
EPA / Play
19
10
EPA / Pass
16
16
EPA / Rush
11
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
18
2
Interceptions / Game
17
24
Fumbles / Game
1
10
Turnover EPA / Game
26
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
9
4th Down Efficiency
3
17
RZ Efficiency
24
32
Colts Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
10
Yards / Game
27
11
Passing Yards / Game
18
8
Rushing Yards / Game
23
9
EPA
EPA / Play
32
24
EPA / Pass
30
29
EPA / Rush
30
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
18
Interceptions / Game
32
1
Fumbles / Game
32
31
Turnover EPA / Game
1
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
16
4th Down Efficiency
23
26
RZ Efficiency
29
16
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Steelers
3-7
SU
4-5-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Colts
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
2-8
O/U