PITSteelers
7-6
13
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
030
INDColts
7-6
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Steelers
6
7
0
0
13
Colts
0
14
10
6
30
Spread
-1
Total
OVER
41.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
216
372
Total Plays
54
65
Yards / Play
4.0
5.7
EPA / Play
-0.44
-0.08
Passing Yards
142
202
Comp/Att
18/26(69%)
18/28(64%)
Yards / Pass
5.5
7.2
EPA / Pass
-0.31
-0.02
Rushing Yards
74
170
Rush Attempts
24
34
Yards / Rush
3.1
5.0
EPA / Rush
-0.38
+0.09
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
13
19
Passing 1st downs
9
8
Rushing 1st downs
3
9
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
33%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
4
6
3rd Down Attempts
12
15
Red Zone %
100%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-15.17
--
Sacks
4
3
Sack Yards
-30
-13
Sack EPA
-9.09
-4.66
Penalties
8
2
Penalty Yards
101
10
Penalty EPA
-11.63
-0.77
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
INDColtsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-1.0
Model
-1.0
Win Probability
Market52.2%
Model52.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+1
Home nfelo
1,438
Away nfelo
1,478
Home Field
+61.1
Base HFA
+45.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-19.8
Home QB Adjustment
+7.9
Away QB Adjustment
+27.7
Market Regression
-19.6
Final Difference
15.3
Model Spread
-1.0
Quarterbacks
M. Trubisky
Proj. Value
-0.5
Team Elo Adj
+27.7
G. Minshew
Proj. Value
-1.6
Team Elo Adj
+7.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Steelers Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
28
Yards / Game
25
24
Passing Yards / Game
26
25
Rushing Yards / Game
11
24
EPA
EPA / Play
25
19
EPA / Pass
24
15
EPA / Rush
20
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
18
Interceptions / Game
5
14
Fumbles / Game
8
8
Turnover EPA / Game
27
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
11
4th Down Efficiency
25
30
RZ Efficiency
25
16
Colts Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
8
Yards / Game
14
21
Passing Yards / Game
14
23
Rushing Yards / Game
10
21
EPA
EPA / Play
17
10
EPA / Pass
16
10
EPA / Rush
21
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
25
Interceptions / Game
6
13
Fumbles / Game
16
5
Turnover EPA / Game
19
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
21
4th Down Efficiency
16
11
RZ Efficiency
23
6
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Steelers
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
2-8
O/U
Colts
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U