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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. steelers @ cowboys week 9, 2020

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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PIT logo
PITSteelers
7-0
24
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
0
19
DALCowboys
2-6
DAL logo
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Steelers
0
9
0
15
24
Cowboys
3
10
6
0
19

Spread

DAL logo
+14

Total

UNDER
44

Game Statistics

General
Steelers logo
Cowboys logo
Total Yards
355
364
Total Plays
64
71
Yards / Play
5.5
5.1
EPA / Play
+0.00
-0.07
Passing Yards
--
220
Comp/Att
31/46(67%)
21/38(55%)
Yards / Pass
--
5.8
EPA / Pass
+0.21
-0.24
Rushing Yards
46
144
Rush Attempts
18
31
Yards / Rush
2.6
4.6
EPA / Rush
-0.45
+0.00
Downs & Conversions
Steelers logo
Cowboys logo
1st Downs
20
19
Passing 1st downs
15
10
Rushing 1st downs
2
9
Penalty 1st downs
3
--
3rd Down %
38%
47%
3rd Down Conversions
5
8
3rd Down Attempts
13
17
Red Zone %
67%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
2
--
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Steelers logo
Cowboys logo
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-7.23
Sacks
--
2
Sack Yards
--
-23
Sack EPA
--
-5.39
Penalties
3
7
Penalty Yards
16
70
Penalty EPA
+2.77
-4.94

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
PIT logo
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-14.0
Current
-14.0
Model
-14.0

Win Probability

Market87.0%
Model87.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-327
Home nfelo
1,461
Away nfelo
1,610
Home Field
+9.6
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+2.2
Time Adj
+1.1
Net QB Adjustment
-187.3
Home QB Adjustment
-177.7
Away QB Adjustment
+9.6
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-330.2
Model Spread
+14.0

Quarterbacks

B. Roethlisberger headshot

B. Roethlisberger

Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+9.6
Value
Ptile
12/30
0.8
52
09/08
-2.1
38
09/15
-5.6
17
09/14
2.3
61
09/20
3.4
69
09/27
-1.1
37
10/11
6.1
84
10/18
-3.1
23
10/25
-2.1
29
11/01
0.8
50
G. Gilbert headshot

G. Gilbert

Proj. Value
-5.0
Team Elo Adj
-177.7
No recent game data available

Team Matchup Ranks

Steelers Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Steelers logo
Cowboys logo

Total

Points / Game
12
28
Yards / Game
22
23
Passing Yards / Game
31
16
Rushing Yards / Game
32
31

EPA

EPA / Play
19
21
EPA / Pass
15
18
EPA / Rush
32
26

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
32
7
Interceptions / Game
25
23
Fumbles / Game
9
2
Turnover EPA / Game
17
26

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
13
27
4th Down Efficiency
11
11
RZ Efficiency
8
20
Cowboys Offense vs Steelers Defense
Cowboys logo
Steelers logo

Total

Points / Game
17
5
Yards / Game
13
3
Passing Yards / Game
4
8
Rushing Yards / Game
17
13

EPA

EPA / Play
24
2
EPA / Pass
25
2
EPA / Rush
18
10

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
12
32
Interceptions / Game
17
4
Fumbles / Game
31
11
Turnover EPA / Game
4
20

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
20
6
4th Down Efficiency
22
1
RZ Efficiency
29
5

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

PIT logo

Steelers

7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
5-4-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/15
-7
L
L
U
12/22
-6
L
L
U
12/29
-18
L
L
O
09/14
10
W
W
U
09/20
5
W
L
O
09/27
7
W
W
O
10/11
9
W
W
O
10/18
31
W
W
U
10/25
3
W
W
P
11/01
4
W
W
O
DAL logo

Cowboys

3-7
SU
1-9
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/22
-8
L
L
U
12/29
31
W
W
O
09/13
-3
L
L
U
09/20
1
W
L
O
09/27
-7
L
L
O
10/04
-11
L
L
O
10/11
3
W
L
O
10/19
-28
L
L
U
10/25
-22
L
L
U
11/01
-14
L
L
U