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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. steelers @ cowboys week 15, 2012

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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PIT logo
PITSteelers
7-6
24
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
0
27
DALCowboys
7-6
DAL logo
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Steelers
0
10
7
7
0
24
Cowboys
3
7
7
7
3
27

Spread

DAL logo
+2.5

Total

OVER
45.5

Game Statistics

General
Steelers logo
Cowboys logo
Total Yards
388
415
Total Plays
61
64
Yards / Play
6.4
6.5
EPA / Play
+0.07
+0.10
Passing Yards
319
328
Comp/Att
24/40(60%)
30/42(71%)
Yards / Pass
8.0
7.8
EPA / Pass
+0.17
+0.31
Rushing Yards
69
87
Rush Attempts
17
21
Yards / Rush
4.1
4.1
EPA / Rush
-0.07
-0.37
Downs & Conversions
Steelers logo
Cowboys logo
1st Downs
20
23
Passing 1st downs
17
17
Rushing 1st downs
2
6
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
42%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
5
4
3rd Down Attempts
12
11
Red Zone %
67%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Steelers logo
Cowboys logo
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
-7.16
+0.08
Sacks
4
1
Sack Yards
-20
-13
Sack EPA
-4.92
-1.60
Penalties
--
8
Penalty Yards
--
61
Penalty EPA
--
-5.60

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
PIT logo
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
-2.5
Model
+1.5

Win Probability

Market56.6%
Model47.1%
Spread Pick
DAL logo
Cowboys+2.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+4.4%
Cover Probability
54.7%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+76
Home nfelo
1,531
Away nfelo
1,532
Home Field
+95.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-17.7
Home QB Adjustment
+5.3
Away QB Adjustment
+23.0
Market Regression
-16.2
Final Difference
20.1
Model Spread
-1.5

Quarterbacks

B. Roethlisberger headshot

B. Roethlisberger

Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+23.0
Value
Ptile
09/09
-4.4
22
09/16
5.1
81
09/23
13.0
99
10/07
3.0
70
10/11
2.7
67
10/21
0.6
54
10/28
6.4
88
11/04
-2.0
35
11/12
-2.8
31
12/09
2.4
64
A. Romo headshot

A. Romo

Proj. Value
+0.0
Team Elo Adj
+5.3
Value
Ptile
10/01
-2.6
32
10/14
4.1
75
10/21
3.7
73
10/28
-2.9
31
11/04
5.5
85
11/11
1.1
57
11/18
-0.2
48
11/22
4.4
78
12/02
7.2
91
12/09
-1.5
39

Team Matchup Ranks

Steelers Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Steelers logo
Cowboys logo

Total

Points / Game
22
24
Yards / Game
21
18
Passing Yards / Game
10
16
Rushing Yards / Game
26
20

EPA

EPA / Play
18
25
EPA / Pass
14
28
EPA / Rush
29
16

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
19
15
Interceptions / Game
12
31
Fumbles / Game
28
22
Turnover EPA / Game
13
6

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
9
23
4th Down Efficiency
20
22
RZ Efficiency
12
19
Cowboys Offense vs Steelers Defense
Cowboys logo
Steelers logo

Total

Points / Game
14
5
Yards / Game
8
1
Passing Yards / Game
1
5
Rushing Yards / Game
31
2

EPA

EPA / Play
13
7
EPA / Pass
10
7
EPA / Rush
24
10

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
12
13
Interceptions / Game
28
27
Fumbles / Game
19
16
Turnover EPA / Game
9
9

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
5
4
4th Down Efficiency
1
29
RZ Efficiency
20
11

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

PIT logo

Steelers

6-4
SU
4-5-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/07
2
W
L
U
10/11
-3
L
L
O
10/21
7
W
W
U
10/28
15
W
W
U
11/04
4
W
W
U
11/12
3
W
L
U
11/18
-3
L
P
U
11/25
-6
L
L
O
12/02
3
W
W
O
12/09
-10
L
L
O
DAL logo

Cowboys

5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/01
-16
L
L
O
10/14
-2
L
W
O
10/21
5
W
W
U
10/28
-5
L
L
O
11/04
-6
L
L
U
11/11
15
W
W
O
11/18
3
W
L
U
11/22
-7
L
L
O
12/02
5
W
L
O
12/09
1
W
W
U