PITSteelers
7-6
24
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
027
DALCowboys
7-6
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Steelers
0
10
7
7
0
24
Cowboys
3
7
7
7
3
27
Spread
+2.5
Total
OVER
45.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
388
415
Total Plays
61
64
Yards / Play
6.4
6.5
EPA / Play
+0.07
+0.10
Passing Yards
319
328
Comp/Att
24/40(60%)
30/42(71%)
Yards / Pass
8.0
7.8
EPA / Pass
+0.17
+0.31
Rushing Yards
69
87
Rush Attempts
17
21
Yards / Rush
4.1
4.1
EPA / Rush
-0.07
-0.37
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
23
Passing 1st downs
17
17
Rushing 1st downs
2
6
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
42%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
5
4
3rd Down Attempts
12
11
Red Zone %
67%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
-7.16
+0.08
Sacks
4
1
Sack Yards
-20
-13
Sack EPA
-4.92
-1.60
Penalties
--
8
Penalty Yards
--
61
Penalty EPA
--
-5.60
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
-2.5
Model
+1.0
Win Probability
Market56.6%
Model47.4%
Spread Pick
Cowboys+2.5
Expected Value
+3.5%
Cover Probability
54.2%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+73
Home nfelo
1,531
Away nfelo
1,536
Home Field
+95.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-17.7
Home QB Adjustment
+5.3
Away QB Adjustment
+23.0
Market Regression
-16.4
Final Difference
18.3
Model Spread
-1.0
Quarterbacks
B. Roethlisberger
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+23.0
A. Romo
Proj. Value
+0.0
Team Elo Adj
+5.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Steelers Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
24
Yards / Game
21
18
Passing Yards / Game
10
16
Rushing Yards / Game
26
20
EPA
EPA / Play
18
25
EPA / Pass
14
28
EPA / Rush
29
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
15
Interceptions / Game
12
31
Fumbles / Game
28
22
Turnover EPA / Game
13
6
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
23
4th Down Efficiency
20
22
RZ Efficiency
12
19
Cowboys Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
5
Yards / Game
8
1
Passing Yards / Game
1
5
Rushing Yards / Game
31
2
EPA
EPA / Play
13
7
EPA / Pass
10
7
EPA / Rush
24
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
12
13
Interceptions / Game
28
27
Fumbles / Game
19
16
Turnover EPA / Game
9
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
4
4th Down Efficiency
1
29
RZ Efficiency
20
11
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Steelers
6-4
SU
4-5-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Cowboys
5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U