PITSteelers
8-7
30
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
60°F
11 mph
24
MIADolphins
7-8
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
60°F
11 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Steelers
14
3
7
6
30
Dolphins
7
3
0
14
24
Spread
-3
Total
OVER
46
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
403
303
Total Plays
67
58
Yards / Play
6.0
5.2
EPA / Play
+0.18
+0.04
Passing Yards
201
204
Comp/Att
18/28(64%)
20/30(67%)
Yards / Pass
7.2
6.8
EPA / Pass
+0.13
+0.02
Rushing Yards
202
99
Rush Attempts
36
25
Yards / Rush
5.6
4.0
EPA / Rush
+0.13
-0.07
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
20
Passing 1st downs
11
11
Rushing 1st downs
9
6
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
50%
58%
3rd Down Conversions
7
7
3rd Down Attempts
14
12
Red Zone %
33%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
6
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
3
Interceptions
1
3
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-8.04
-9.51
Sacks
3
3
Sack Yards
-19
-19
Sack EPA
-6.69
-4.59
Penalties
5
3
Penalty Yards
40
45
Penalty EPA
-3.07
-3.74
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-29
Home nfelo
1,515
Away nfelo
1,585
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-21.5
Home QB Adjustment
-10.3
Away QB Adjustment
+11.1
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
B. Roethlisberger
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+11.1
C. Henne
Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
-10.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Steelers Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
25
Yards / Game
7
21
Passing Yards / Game
3
29
Rushing Yards / Game
20
17
EPA
EPA / Play
7
28
EPA / Pass
10
21
EPA / Rush
14
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
14
Interceptions / Game
10
16
Fumbles / Game
19
30
Turnover EPA / Game
13
6
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
5
4th Down Efficiency
4
22
RZ Efficiency
26
8
Dolphins Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
11
Yards / Game
17
6
Passing Yards / Game
23
31
Rushing Yards / Game
5
5
EPA
EPA / Play
12
22
EPA / Pass
19
13
EPA / Rush
3
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
2
Interceptions / Game
24
25
Fumbles / Game
8
16
Turnover EPA / Game
8
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
28
4th Down Efficiency
2
30
RZ Efficiency
5
6
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Steelers
5-5
SU
3-6-1
ATS
5-4-1
O/U
Dolphins
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
5-4-1
O/U