PITSteelers
2-0
3
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
73°F
7 mph
34
PHIEagles
2-0
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
73°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Steelers
0
3
0
0
3
Eagles
3
10
21
0
34
Spread
+4
Total
UNDER
46.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
251
426
Total Plays
58
61
Yards / Play
4.3
7.0
EPA / Play
-0.28
+0.29
Passing Yards
222
--
Comp/Att
24/44(55%)
23/31(74%)
Yards / Pass
5.0
--
EPA / Pass
-0.34
+0.55
Rushing Yards
29
125
Rush Attempts
10
30
Yards / Rush
2.9
4.2
EPA / Rush
-0.07
+0.02
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
15
25
Passing 1st downs
11
11
Rushing 1st downs
2
10
Penalty 1st downs
2
4
3rd Down %
36%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
4
4
3rd Down Attempts
11
10
Red Zone %
0%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
--
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-7.80
--
Sacks
4
--
Sack Yards
-35
--
Sack EPA
-9.69
--
Penalties
7
10
Penalty Yards
77
99
Penalty EPA
-8.26
-9.27
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-4.0
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market65.2%
Model65.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-62
Home nfelo
1,510
Away nfelo
1,612
Home Field
+57.4
Base HFA
+57.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-17.2
Home QB Adjustment
-5.9
Away QB Adjustment
+11.3
Market Regression
-17.4
Final Difference
-109.1
Model Spread
+4.0
Quarterbacks
B. Roethlisberger
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+11.3
C. Wentz
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-5.9
Value
Ptile
Team Matchup Ranks
Steelers Offense vs Eagles Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
11
Yards / Game
6
12
Passing Yards / Game
25
3
Rushing Yards / Game
8
15
EPA
EPA / Play
6
10
EPA / Pass
7
5
EPA / Rush
3
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
25
19
Interceptions / Game
21
8
Fumbles / Game
4
17
Turnover EPA / Game
20
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
19
4th Down Efficiency
11
11
RZ Efficiency
16
3
Eagles Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
10
Yards / Game
20
10
Passing Yards / Game
22
10
Rushing Yards / Game
9
8
EPA
EPA / Play
16
18
EPA / Pass
20
15
EPA / Rush
13
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
32
Interceptions / Game
16
19
Fumbles / Game
7
15
Turnover EPA / Game
23
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
24
4th Down Efficiency
18
19
RZ Efficiency
25
5
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Steelers
7-3
SU
5-3-2
ATS
5-5
O/U
Eagles
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U