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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. steelers @ eagles week 3, 2016

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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PIT logo
PITSteelers
2-0
3
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
73°F
7 mph
34
PHIEagles
2-0
PHI logo
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
73°F
7 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Steelers
0
3
0
0
3
Eagles
3
10
21
0
34

Spread

PHI logo
+4

Total

UNDER
46.5

Game Statistics

General
Steelers logo
Eagles logo
Total Yards
251
426
Total Plays
58
61
Yards / Play
4.3
7.0
EPA / Play
-0.28
+0.29
Passing Yards
222
--
Comp/Att
24/44(55%)
23/31(74%)
Yards / Pass
5.0
--
EPA / Pass
-0.34
+0.55
Rushing Yards
29
125
Rush Attempts
10
30
Yards / Rush
2.9
4.2
EPA / Rush
-0.07
+0.02
Downs & Conversions
Steelers logo
Eagles logo
1st Downs
15
25
Passing 1st downs
11
11
Rushing 1st downs
2
10
Penalty 1st downs
2
4
3rd Down %
36%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
4
4
3rd Down Attempts
11
10
Red Zone %
0%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
--
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
5
Negative Plays
Steelers logo
Eagles logo
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-7.80
--
Sacks
4
--
Sack Yards
-35
--
Sack EPA
-9.69
--
Penalties
7
10
Penalty Yards
77
99
Penalty EPA
-8.26
-9.27

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
PIT logo
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-4.0
Model
-4.0

Win Probability

Market65.2%
Model65.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-60
Home nfelo
1,512
Away nfelo
1,613
Home Field
+58.1
Base HFA
+58.1
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-17.2
Home QB Adjustment
-5.9
Away QB Adjustment
+11.3
Market Regression
-17.4
Final Difference
-109.1
Model Spread
+4.0

Quarterbacks

B. Roethlisberger headshot

B. Roethlisberger

Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+11.3
Value
Ptile
11/29
4.1
79
12/06
11.2
98
12/13
1.6
62
12/20
5.5
85
12/27
-6.3
10
01/03
4.1
79
01/09
-1.4
40
01/17
1.3
60
09/12
5.0
82
09/18
0.4
53
C. Wentz headshot

C. Wentz

Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
-5.9
Value
Ptile
09/11
1.5
60
09/19
-2.0
34

Team Matchup Ranks

Steelers Offense vs Eagles Defense
Steelers logo
Eagles logo

Total

Points / Game
12
11
Yards / Game
6
12
Passing Yards / Game
25
3
Rushing Yards / Game
8
15

EPA

EPA / Play
6
10
EPA / Pass
7
5
EPA / Rush
3
19

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
25
19
Interceptions / Game
21
8
Fumbles / Game
4
17
Turnover EPA / Game
20
26

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
10
19
4th Down Efficiency
11
11
RZ Efficiency
16
3
Eagles Offense vs Steelers Defense
Eagles logo
Steelers logo

Total

Points / Game
16
10
Yards / Game
20
10
Passing Yards / Game
22
10
Rushing Yards / Game
9
8

EPA

EPA / Play
16
18
EPA / Pass
20
15
EPA / Rush
13
17

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
15
32
Interceptions / Game
16
19
Fumbles / Game
7
15
Turnover EPA / Game
23
18

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
18
24
4th Down Efficiency
18
19
RZ Efficiency
25
5

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

PIT logo

Steelers

7-3
SU
5-3-2
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/29
-9
L
L
O
12/06
35
W
W
O
12/13
13
W
W
O
12/20
7
W
L
O
12/27
-3
L
L
U
01/03
16
W
W
U
01/09
2
W
P
U
01/17
-7
L
P
U
09/12
22
W
W
O
09/18
8
W
W
U
PHI logo

Eagles

5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/15
-1
L
L
U
11/22
-28
L
L
O
11/26
-31
L
L
O
12/06
7
W
W
O
12/13
3
W
W
U
12/20
-23
L
L
O
12/26
-14
L
L
O
01/03
5
W
W
O
09/11
19
W
W
U
09/19
15
W
W
O