PITSteelers
2-5
13
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
70°F
035
PHIEagles
6-0
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Steelers
7
3
3
0
13
Eagles
7
14
7
7
35
Spread
-11.5
Total
OVER
43
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
302
401
Total Plays
70
53
Yards / Play
4.3
7.6
EPA / Play
-0.06
+0.35
Passing Yards
158
290
Comp/Att
27/40(68%)
20/30(67%)
Yards / Pass
4.0
9.7
EPA / Pass
-0.33
+0.56
Rushing Yards
144
111
Rush Attempts
24
20
Yards / Rush
6.0
5.5
EPA / Rush
+0.39
+0.10
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
20
Passing 1st downs
9
13
Rushing 1st downs
10
6
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
8%
58%
3rd Down Conversions
1
7
3rd Down Attempts
12
12
Red Zone %
33%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-9.55
--
Sacks
6
3
Sack Yards
-38
-18
Sack EPA
-12.79
-2.79
Penalties
9
8
Penalty Yards
60
60
Penalty EPA
-6.23
-2.95
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PHIEaglesFavored
Opening
-11.5
Current
-11.5
Model
-11.5
Win Probability
Market82.6%
Model82.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+286
Home nfelo
1,585
Away nfelo
1,397
Home Field
+50.5
Base HFA
+39.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+11.3
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+47.0
Home QB Adjustment
+14.8
Away QB Adjustment
-32.2
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
270.6
Model Spread
-11.5
Quarterbacks
K. Pickett
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
-32.2
Value
Ptile
J. Hurts
Proj. Value
+2.4
Team Elo Adj
+14.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Steelers Offense vs Eagles Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
7
Yards / Game
23
1
Passing Yards / Game
20
3
Rushing Yards / Game
16
16
EPA
EPA / Play
19
5
EPA / Pass
16
1
EPA / Rush
11
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
18
15
Interceptions / Game
17
9
Fumbles / Game
1
6
Turnover EPA / Game
26
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
12
4th Down Efficiency
3
19
RZ Efficiency
24
17
Eagles Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
10
Yards / Game
3
11
Passing Yards / Game
6
8
Rushing Yards / Game
4
9
EPA
EPA / Play
2
24
EPA / Pass
6
29
EPA / Rush
1
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
18
Interceptions / Game
3
1
Fumbles / Game
17
31
Turnover EPA / Game
14
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
16
4th Down Efficiency
4
26
RZ Efficiency
3
16
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Steelers
4-6
SU
5-4-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Eagles
8-2
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U