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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. steelers @ eagles week 15, 2024

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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PIT logo
PITSteelers
10-3
13
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
37°F
5 mph
27
PHIEagles
11-2
PHI logo
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
37°F
5 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Steelers
3
10
0
0
13
Eagles
10
7
3
7
27

Spread

PHI logo
-5.5

Total

UNDER
43

Game Statistics

General
Steelers logo
Eagles logo
Total Yards
163
401
Total Plays
41
77
Yards / Play
4.0
5.2
EPA / Play
-0.12
+0.14
Passing Yards
107
270
Comp/Att
14/22(64%)
25/32(78%)
Yards / Pass
4.9
8.4
EPA / Pass
-0.27
+0.67
Rushing Yards
56
131
Rush Attempts
17
42
Yards / Rush
3.3
3.1
EPA / Rush
-0.33
-0.26
Downs & Conversions
Steelers logo
Eagles logo
1st Downs
10
26
Passing 1st downs
5
15
Rushing 1st downs
4
10
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
30%
59%
3rd Down Conversions
3
10
3rd Down Attempts
10
17
Red Zone %
50%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
6
Negative Plays
Steelers logo
Eagles logo
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
2
1
Turnover EPA
+0.09
-4.47
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-21
-20
Sack EPA
-3.85
-1.73
Penalties
5
7
Penalty Yards
60
54
Penalty EPA
-7.33
-5.37

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
PHI logo
PHIEaglesFavored
Opening
-5.0
Current
-5.5
Model
-5.5

Win Probability

Market68.0%
Model68.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+101
Home nfelo
1,639
Away nfelo
1,560
Home Field
+40.3
Base HFA
+40.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-18.6
Home QB Adjustment
+4.7
Away QB Adjustment
+23.3
Market Regression
+7.1
Final Difference
130.9
Model Spread
-5.5

Quarterbacks

R. Wilson headshot

R. Wilson

Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
+23.3
Value
Ptile
12/10
-1.3
41
12/16
-1.4
40
12/24
1.3
58
10/20
5.4
81
10/28
-0.0
49
11/10
-4.2
21
11/17
-6.7
9
11/21
1.8
61
12/01
7.2
91
12/08
1.1
56
J. Hurts headshot

J. Hurts

Proj. Value
+0.9
Team Elo Adj
+4.7
Value
Ptile
09/29
-5.4
14
10/13
4.8
79
10/20
-0.4
46
10/27
10.7
98
11/03
5.0
80
11/10
3.5
72
11/14
1.1
57
11/24
0.8
53
12/01
-0.5
46
12/08
2.0
62

Team Matchup Ranks

Steelers Offense vs Eagles Defense
Steelers logo
Eagles logo

Total

Points / Game
20
1
Yards / Game
23
1
Passing Yards / Game
14
14
Rushing Yards / Game
12
4

EPA

EPA / Play
16
1
EPA / Pass
19
1
EPA / Rush
28
2

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
13
12
Interceptions / Game
3
6
Fumbles / Game
31
1
Turnover EPA / Game
30
30

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
12
8
4th Down Efficiency
31
21
RZ Efficiency
29
6
Eagles Offense vs Steelers Defense
Eagles logo
Steelers logo

Total

Points / Game
5
7
Yards / Game
8
15
Passing Yards / Game
25
23
Rushing Yards / Game
2
11

EPA

EPA / Play
7
8
EPA / Pass
7
16
EPA / Rush
4
13

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
25
8
Interceptions / Game
3
3
Fumbles / Game
8
4
Turnover EPA / Game
31
27

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
11
11
4th Down Efficiency
3
28
RZ Efficiency
10
13

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

PIT logo

Steelers

7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/29
-3
L
L
O
10/06
-3
L
L
U
10/13
19
W
W
O
10/20
22
W
W
O
10/28
8
W
W
O
11/10
1
W
W
O
11/17
2
W
W
U
11/21
-5
L
L
O
12/01
6
W
W
O
12/08
13
W
W
U
PHI logo

Eagles

9-1
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/29
-17
L
L
O
10/13
4
W
L
U
10/20
25
W
W
U
10/27
20
W
W
O
11/03
5
W
L
O
11/10
28
W
W
U
11/14
8
W
W
U
11/24
17
W
W
O
12/01
5
W
W
U
12/08
6
W
L
U