PITSteelers
10-3
13
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
37°F
5 mph
27
PHIEagles
11-2
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
37°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Steelers
3
10
0
0
13
Eagles
10
7
3
7
27
Spread
-5.5
Total
UNDER
43
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
163
401
Total Plays
41
77
Yards / Play
4.0
5.2
EPA / Play
-0.12
+0.14
Passing Yards
107
270
Comp/Att
14/22(64%)
25/32(78%)
Yards / Pass
4.9
8.4
EPA / Pass
-0.27
+0.67
Rushing Yards
56
131
Rush Attempts
17
42
Yards / Rush
3.3
3.1
EPA / Rush
-0.33
-0.26
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
10
26
Passing 1st downs
5
15
Rushing 1st downs
4
10
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
30%
59%
3rd Down Conversions
3
10
3rd Down Attempts
10
17
Red Zone %
50%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
2
1
Turnover EPA
+0.09
-4.47
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-21
-20
Sack EPA
-3.85
-1.73
Penalties
5
7
Penalty Yards
60
54
Penalty EPA
-7.33
-5.37
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PHIEaglesFavored
Opening
-5.0
Current
-5.5
Model
-5.5
Win Probability
Market68.0%
Model68.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+100
Home nfelo
1,641
Away nfelo
1,561
Home Field
+39.8
Base HFA
+39.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-18.5
Home QB Adjustment
+4.6
Away QB Adjustment
+23.1
Market Regression
+7.1
Final Difference
130.9
Model Spread
-5.5
Quarterbacks
R. Wilson
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+23.1
J. Hurts
Proj. Value
+2.4
Team Elo Adj
+4.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Steelers Offense vs Eagles Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
1
Yards / Game
23
1
Passing Yards / Game
14
14
Rushing Yards / Game
12
4
EPA
EPA / Play
16
1
EPA / Pass
19
1
EPA / Rush
28
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
13
12
Interceptions / Game
3
6
Fumbles / Game
31
1
Turnover EPA / Game
30
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
8
4th Down Efficiency
31
21
RZ Efficiency
29
6
Eagles Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
7
Yards / Game
8
15
Passing Yards / Game
25
23
Rushing Yards / Game
2
11
EPA
EPA / Play
7
8
EPA / Pass
7
16
EPA / Rush
4
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
25
8
Interceptions / Game
3
3
Fumbles / Game
8
4
Turnover EPA / Game
31
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
11
4th Down Efficiency
3
28
RZ Efficiency
10
13
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Steelers
7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
7-3
O/U
Eagles
9-1
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U