PITSteelers
-
18
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
70°F
010
ATLFalcons
-
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Steelers
3
6
6
3
18
Falcons
3
7
0
0
10
Spread
+4
Total
UNDER
42.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
270
226
Total Plays
66
50
Yards / Play
4.1
4.5
EPA / Play
-0.05
-0.34
Passing Yards
133
137
Comp/Att
17/23(74%)
16/26(62%)
Yards / Pass
5.8
5.3
EPA / Pass
-0.06
-0.43
Rushing Yards
137
89
Rush Attempts
41
22
Yards / Rush
3.3
4.0
EPA / Rush
-0.13
-0.28
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
15
Passing 1st downs
6
8
Rushing 1st downs
9
6
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
47%
22%
3rd Down Conversions
8
2
3rd Down Attempts
17
9
Red Zone %
0%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
3
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-18.39
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-23
-18
Sack EPA
-4.22
-1.88
Penalties
9
5
Penalty Yards
60
34
Penalty EPA
-6.40
-4.57
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ATLFalconsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-4.0
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market64.7%
Model64.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+35
Home nfelo
1,470
Away nfelo
1,517
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+46.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+16.1
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+20.2
Home QB Adjustment
+25.3
Away QB Adjustment
+5.1
Market Regression
+39.9
Final Difference
105.3
Model Spread
-4.0
Quarterbacks
J. Fields
Proj. Value
+0.8
Team Elo Adj
+5.1
K. Cousins
Proj. Value
-1.4
Team Elo Adj
+25.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Steelers Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
23
Yards / Game
23
22
Passing Yards / Game
14
3
Rushing Yards / Game
12
15
EPA
EPA / Play
16
23
EPA / Pass
19
28
EPA / Rush
28
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
13
25
Interceptions / Game
3
16
Fumbles / Game
31
27
Turnover EPA / Game
30
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
31
4th Down Efficiency
31
13
RZ Efficiency
29
28
Falcons Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
7
Yards / Game
6
15
Passing Yards / Game
7
23
Rushing Yards / Game
10
11
EPA
EPA / Play
15
8
EPA / Pass
15
16
EPA / Rush
11
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
8
Interceptions / Game
29
3
Fumbles / Game
6
4
Turnover EPA / Game
8
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
11
4th Down Efficiency
5
28
RZ Efficiency
20
13
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Steelers
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Falcons
3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
6-4
O/U