PITSteelers
2-2
17
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
71°F
10 mph
9
JAXJaguars
0-4
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
71°F
10 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Steelers
0
10
0
1
11
Jaguars
3
3
3
0
9
Spread
-6
Total
UNDER
47
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
372
243
Total Plays
68
52
Yards / Play
5.5
4.7
EPA / Play
-0.05
-0.32
Passing Yards
261
187
Comp/Att
26/36(72%)
22/36(61%)
Yards / Pass
7.3
5.2
EPA / Pass
+0.12
-0.31
Rushing Yards
111
56
Rush Attempts
28
15
Yards / Rush
4.0
3.7
EPA / Rush
-0.14
+0.00
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
12
Passing 1st downs
15
8
Rushing 1st downs
5
4
Penalty 1st downs
--
--
3rd Down %
50%
25%
3rd Down Conversions
8
3
3rd Down Attempts
16
12
Red Zone %
25%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-5.04
-7.97
Sacks
4
1
Sack Yards
-12
-4
Sack EPA
-8.31
-1.04
Penalties
7
4
Penalty Yards
50
--
Penalty EPA
+1.62
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-6.0
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market69.8%
Model65.9%
Spread Pick
Jaguars+6.0
Expected Value
+3.6%
Cover Probability
52.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-80
Home nfelo
1,309
Away nfelo
1,492
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+39.8
Home QB Adjustment
+47.1
Away QB Adjustment
+7.2
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-114.3
Model Spread
+4.0
Quarterbacks
B. Roethlisberger
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+7.2
R. Bortles
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+47.1
Value
Ptile
Team Matchup Ranks
Steelers Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
26
Yards / Game
2
26
Passing Yards / Game
6
29
Rushing Yards / Game
17
27
EPA
EPA / Play
4
22
EPA / Pass
3
22
EPA / Rush
19
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
7
1
Interceptions / Game
7
30
Fumbles / Game
21
5
Turnover EPA / Game
21
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
23
4th Down Efficiency
10
9
RZ Efficiency
20
9
Jaguars Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
32
21
Yards / Game
31
17
Passing Yards / Game
21
22
Rushing Yards / Game
21
6
EPA
EPA / Play
31
27
EPA / Pass
32
25
EPA / Rush
16
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
25
17
Interceptions / Game
26
26
Fumbles / Game
10
14
Turnover EPA / Game
11
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
9
4th Down Efficiency
25
32
RZ Efficiency
31
19
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Steelers
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U
Jaguars
3-7
SU
3-6-1
ATS
7-3
O/U