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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. steelers @ jaguars week 5, 2014

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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PIT logo
PITSteelers
2-2
17
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
71°F
10 mph
9
JAXJaguars
0-4
JAX logo
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
71°F
10 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Steelers
0
10
0
1
11
Jaguars
3
3
3
0
9

Spread

PIT logo
-6

Total

UNDER
47

Game Statistics

General
Steelers logo
Jaguars logo
Total Yards
372
243
Total Plays
68
52
Yards / Play
5.5
4.7
EPA / Play
-0.05
-0.32
Passing Yards
261
187
Comp/Att
26/36(72%)
22/36(61%)
Yards / Pass
7.3
5.2
EPA / Pass
+0.12
-0.31
Rushing Yards
111
56
Rush Attempts
28
15
Yards / Rush
4.0
3.7
EPA / Rush
-0.14
+0.00
Downs & Conversions
Steelers logo
Jaguars logo
1st Downs
20
12
Passing 1st downs
15
8
Rushing 1st downs
5
4
Penalty 1st downs
--
--
3rd Down %
50%
25%
3rd Down Conversions
8
3
3rd Down Attempts
16
12
Red Zone %
25%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Steelers logo
Jaguars logo
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-5.04
-7.97
Sacks
4
1
Sack Yards
-12
-4
Sack EPA
-8.31
-1.04
Penalties
7
4
Penalty Yards
50
--
Penalty EPA
+1.62
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
PIT logo
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-6.0
Model
-4.0

Win Probability

Market69.8%
Model65.6%
Spread Pick
JAX logo
Jaguars+6.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+3.6%
Cover Probability
52.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-76
Home nfelo
1,314
Away nfelo
1,492
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+39.8
Home QB Adjustment
+47.1
Away QB Adjustment
+7.2
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-112.2
Model Spread
+4.0

Quarterbacks

B. Roethlisberger headshot

B. Roethlisberger

Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+7.2
Value
Ptile
11/24
3.5
74
11/28
6.7
89
12/08
6.3
87
12/15
0.9
56
12/22
1.2
58
12/29
-4.4
22
09/07
1.6
63
09/11
-3.9
27
09/21
3.8
76
09/28
3.1
71
R. Bortles headshot

R. Bortles

Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+47.1
Value
Ptile
09/28
-0.7
45

Team Matchup Ranks

Steelers Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Steelers logo
Jaguars logo

Total

Points / Game
7
26
Yards / Game
2
26
Passing Yards / Game
6
29
Rushing Yards / Game
17
27

EPA

EPA / Play
4
22
EPA / Pass
3
22
EPA / Rush
19
18

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
7
1
Interceptions / Game
7
30
Fumbles / Game
21
5
Turnover EPA / Game
21
11

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
7
23
4th Down Efficiency
10
9
RZ Efficiency
20
9
Jaguars Offense vs Steelers Defense
Jaguars logo
Steelers logo

Total

Points / Game
32
21
Yards / Game
31
17
Passing Yards / Game
21
22
Rushing Yards / Game
21
6

EPA

EPA / Play
31
27
EPA / Pass
32
25
EPA / Rush
16
14

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
25
17
Interceptions / Game
26
26
Fumbles / Game
10
14
Turnover EPA / Game
11
13

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
29
9
4th Down Efficiency
25
32
RZ Efficiency
31
19

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

PIT logo

Steelers

6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/24
16
W
W
U
11/28
-2
L
W
O
12/08
-6
L
L
O
12/15
10
W
W
O
12/22
7
W
W
O
12/29
13
W
W
U
09/07
3
W
L
O
09/11
-20
L
L
U
09/21
18
W
W
O
09/28
-3
L
L
O
JAX logo

Jaguars

3-7
SU
3-6-1
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/24
7
W
W
U
12/01
4
W
W
O
12/05
7
W
W
O
12/15
-7
L
L
O
12/22
-4
L
P
U
12/29
-20
L
L
U
09/07
-17
L
L
O
09/14
-31
L
L
O
09/21
-27
L
L
O
09/28
-19
L
L
O