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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. steelers @ jaguars week 11, 2018

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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PIT logo
PITSteelers
6-2
20
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
73°F
8 mph
16
JAXJaguars
3-6
JAX logo
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
73°F
8 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Steelers
0
0
6
14
20
Jaguars
0
9
7
0
16

Spread

PIT logo
JAX logo
4
P

Total

UNDER
47

Game Statistics

General
Steelers logo
Jaguars logo
Total Yards
323
243
Total Plays
61
67
Yards / Play
5.3
3.6
EPA / Play
-0.19
-0.19
Passing Yards
297
64
Comp/Att
27/48(56%)
10/18(56%)
Yards / Pass
6.2
3.6
EPA / Pass
-0.18
-0.38
Rushing Yards
26
179
Rush Attempts
11
43
Yards / Rush
2.4
4.2
EPA / Rush
+0.17
-0.04
Downs & Conversions
Steelers logo
Jaguars logo
1st Downs
19
15
Passing 1st downs
10
5
Rushing 1st downs
3
9
Penalty 1st downs
6
1
3rd Down %
27%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
3
6
3rd Down Attempts
11
18
Red Zone %
67%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
1
Negative Plays
Steelers logo
Jaguars logo
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
3
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-11.63
-0.02
Sacks
2
6
Sack Yards
-17
-40
Sack EPA
-3.45
-7.15
Penalties
3
11
Penalty Yards
15
111
Penalty EPA
-3.11
-9.58

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
PIT logo
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-5.0
Current
-4.0
Model
-4.0

Win Probability

Market65.2%
Model65.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-74
Home nfelo
1,490
Away nfelo
1,599
Home Field
+58.3
Base HFA
+58.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-23.9
Home QB Adjustment
+2.1
Away QB Adjustment
+26.0
Market Regression
+7.1
Final Difference
-109.1
Model Spread
+4.0

Quarterbacks

B. Roethlisberger headshot

B. Roethlisberger

Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+26.0
Value
Ptile
01/14
13.8
100
09/09
-6.3
12
09/16
12.9
99
09/24
4.3
76
09/30
-0.1
46
10/07
3.5
72
10/14
6.6
87
10/28
2.0
62
11/04
5.6
83
11/08
13.9
99
R. Bortles headshot

R. Bortles

Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+2.1
Value
Ptile
01/21
0.8
57
09/09
-1.3
37
09/16
11.0
97
09/23
-3.9
23
09/30
8.3
92
10/07
-4.1
21
10/14
-5.6
15
10/21
-4.2
21
10/28
-0.0
46
11/11
6.6
88

Team Matchup Ranks

Steelers Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Steelers logo
Jaguars logo

Total

Points / Game
5
4
Yards / Game
5
5
Passing Yards / Game
2
5
Rushing Yards / Game
31
20

EPA

EPA / Play
8
6
EPA / Pass
4
7
EPA / Rush
15
8

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
32
2
Interceptions / Game
26
23
Fumbles / Game
18
28
Turnover EPA / Game
7
7

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
6
14
4th Down Efficiency
6
1
RZ Efficiency
2
4
Jaguars Offense vs Steelers Defense
Jaguars logo
Steelers logo

Total

Points / Game
31
16
Yards / Game
27
6
Passing Yards / Game
31
27
Rushing Yards / Game
20
5

EPA

EPA / Play
30
20
EPA / Pass
30
18
EPA / Rush
23
23

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
9
29
Interceptions / Game
17
27
Fumbles / Game
32
19
Turnover EPA / Game
8
8

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
11
9
4th Down Efficiency
27
12
RZ Efficiency
31
16

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

PIT logo

Steelers

6-3-1
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/14
-3
L
L
O
09/09
0
T
L
O
09/16
-5
L
L
O
09/24
3
W
W
O
09/30
-12
L
L
U
10/07
24
W
W
O
10/14
7
W
W
U
10/28
15
W
W
O
11/04
7
W
W
U
11/08
31
W
W
O
JAX logo

Jaguars

3-7
SU
4-5-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/21
-4
L
W
U
09/09
5
W
W
U
09/16
11
W
W
O
09/23
-3
L
L
U
09/30
19
W
W
O
10/07
-16
L
L
U
10/14
-33
L
L
O
10/21
-13
L
L
U
10/28
-6
L
L
U
11/11
-3
L
P
O