PITSteelers
6-2
20
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
73°F
8 mph
16
JAXJaguars
3-6
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
73°F
8 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Steelers
0
0
6
14
20
Jaguars
0
9
7
0
16
Spread
4
P
Total
UNDER
47
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
323
243
Total Plays
61
67
Yards / Play
5.3
3.6
EPA / Play
-0.19
-0.19
Passing Yards
297
64
Comp/Att
27/48(56%)
10/18(56%)
Yards / Pass
6.2
3.6
EPA / Pass
-0.18
-0.38
Rushing Yards
26
179
Rush Attempts
11
43
Yards / Rush
2.4
4.2
EPA / Rush
+0.17
-0.04
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
15
Passing 1st downs
10
5
Rushing 1st downs
3
9
Penalty 1st downs
6
1
3rd Down %
27%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
3
6
3rd Down Attempts
11
18
Red Zone %
67%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
3
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-11.63
-0.02
Sacks
2
6
Sack Yards
-17
-40
Sack EPA
-3.45
-7.15
Penalties
3
11
Penalty Yards
15
111
Penalty EPA
-3.11
-9.58
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-5.0
Current
-4.0
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market65.2%
Model65.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-79
Home nfelo
1,491
Away nfelo
1,603
Home Field
+57.6
Base HFA
+57.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-23.9
Home QB Adjustment
+2.1
Away QB Adjustment
+26.0
Market Regression
+8.0
Final Difference
-109.1
Model Spread
+4.0
Quarterbacks
B. Roethlisberger
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+26.0
R. Bortles
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+2.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Steelers Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
4
Yards / Game
5
5
Passing Yards / Game
2
5
Rushing Yards / Game
31
20
EPA
EPA / Play
8
6
EPA / Pass
4
7
EPA / Rush
15
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
2
Interceptions / Game
26
23
Fumbles / Game
18
28
Turnover EPA / Game
7
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
14
4th Down Efficiency
6
1
RZ Efficiency
2
4
Jaguars Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
31
16
Yards / Game
27
6
Passing Yards / Game
31
27
Rushing Yards / Game
20
5
EPA
EPA / Play
30
20
EPA / Pass
30
18
EPA / Rush
23
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
29
Interceptions / Game
17
27
Fumbles / Game
32
19
Turnover EPA / Game
8
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
9
4th Down Efficiency
27
12
RZ Efficiency
31
16
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Steelers
6-3-1
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U
Jaguars
3-7
SU
4-5-1
ATS
4-6
O/U