PITSteelers
9-0
27
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
72°F
3 mph
3
JAXJaguars
1-8
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
72°F
3 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Steelers
0
17
0
10
27
Jaguars
3
0
0
0
3
Spread
-10.5
Total
UNDER
47
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
373
206
Total Plays
73
56
Yards / Play
5.1
3.7
EPA / Play
+0.06
-0.43
Passing Yards
--
133
Comp/Att
32/46(70%)
16/37(43%)
Yards / Pass
--
3.6
EPA / Pass
+0.15
-0.71
Rushing Yards
106
73
Rush Attempts
27
17
Yards / Rush
3.9
4.3
EPA / Rush
-0.16
+0.09
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
23
14
Passing 1st downs
12
8
Rushing 1st downs
7
4
Penalty 1st downs
4
2
3rd Down %
41%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
7
4
3rd Down Attempts
17
13
Red Zone %
100%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
1
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
4
Interceptions
1
4
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-1.94
-13.58
Sacks
--
2
Sack Yards
--
-18
Sack EPA
--
-3.65
Penalties
6
8
Penalty Yards
42
105
Penalty EPA
-6.05
-12.07
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-10.0
Current
-10.5
Model
-12.0
Win Probability
Market81.3%
Model83.9%
Spread Pick
Steelers-10.5
Expected Value
+2.4%
Cover Probability
53.6%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-321
Home nfelo
1,402
Away nfelo
1,612
Home Field
+6.3
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-116.3
Home QB Adjustment
-93.6
Away QB Adjustment
+22.6
Market Regression
-3.1
Final Difference
-286.5
Model Spread
+12.0
Quarterbacks
B. Roethlisberger
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+22.6
J. Luton
Proj. Value
-5.8
Team Elo Adj
-93.6
Value
Ptile
Team Matchup Ranks
Steelers Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
31
Yards / Game
22
31
Passing Yards / Game
31
23
Rushing Yards / Game
32
30
EPA
EPA / Play
19
30
EPA / Pass
15
30
EPA / Rush
32
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
7
Interceptions / Game
25
16
Fumbles / Game
9
28
Turnover EPA / Game
17
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
21
4th Down Efficiency
11
26
RZ Efficiency
8
24
Jaguars Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
5
Yards / Game
27
3
Passing Yards / Game
19
8
Rushing Yards / Game
29
13
EPA
EPA / Play
30
2
EPA / Pass
26
2
EPA / Rush
17
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
32
Interceptions / Game
27
4
Fumbles / Game
20
11
Turnover EPA / Game
11
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
6
4th Down Efficiency
31
1
RZ Efficiency
14
5
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Steelers
9-1
SU
7-3
ATS
6-3-1
O/U
Jaguars
2-8
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U