PITSteelers
-
34
TBD
MetLife Stadium
67°F
3 mph
32
NYJJets
-
TBD
MetLife Stadium
67°F
3 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Steelers
7
10
0
17
34
Jets
9
10
7
6
32
Spread
+3
Total
OVER
37.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
271
394
Total Plays
54
64
Yards / Play
5.0
6.2
EPA / Play
+0.29
+0.20
Passing Yards
218
212
Comp/Att
22/30(73%)
16/23(70%)
Yards / Pass
7.3
9.2
EPA / Pass
+0.34
+0.44
Rushing Yards
53
182
Rush Attempts
20
40
Yards / Rush
2.6
4.5
EPA / Rush
-0.15
+0.09
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
23
Passing 1st downs
14
9
Rushing 1st downs
2
13
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
40%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
4
7
3rd Down Attempts
10
14
Red Zone %
100%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
3
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-5.68
Sacks
4
1
Sack Yards
-26
-6
Sack EPA
-5.61
-1.68
Penalties
4
7
Penalty Yards
26
74
Penalty EPA
-3.08
-5.64
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-29
Home nfelo
1,431
Away nfelo
1,491
Home Field
+51.8
Base HFA
+38.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.4
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-20.7
Home QB Adjustment
-2.0
Away QB Adjustment
+18.7
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+1.1
Team Elo Adj
+18.7
J. Fields
Proj. Value
+0.9
Team Elo Adj
-2.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Steelers Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
28
Yards / Game
29
20
Passing Yards / Game
26
10
Rushing Yards / Game
31
25
EPA
EPA / Play
12
30
EPA / Pass
14
30
EPA / Rush
21
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
10
Interceptions / Game
17
30
Fumbles / Game
1
25
Turnover EPA / Game
21
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
12
4th Down Efficiency
28
31
RZ Efficiency
7
13
Jets Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
19
21
Yards / Game
21
28
Passing Yards / Game
23
32
Rushing Yards / Game
3
19
EPA
EPA / Play
16
23
EPA / Pass
17
22
EPA / Rush
23
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
8
13
Interceptions / Game
2
4
Fumbles / Game
32
2
Turnover EPA / Game
3
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
23
4th Down Efficiency
14
21
RZ Efficiency
17
16
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Steelers
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Jets
3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
7-3
O/U