PITSteelers
6-3
13
TBD
MetLife Stadium
58°F
8 mph
20
NYJJets
1-8
TBD
MetLife Stadium
58°F
8 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Steelers
0
3
0
10
13
Jets
17
0
3
0
20
Spread
+4.5
Total
UNDER
47
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
362
275
Total Plays
62
58
Yards / Play
5.8
4.7
EPA / Play
-0.12
-0.02
Passing Yards
326
125
Comp/Att
30/43(70%)
10/18(56%)
Yards / Pass
7.6
6.9
EPA / Pass
-0.02
+0.05
Rushing Yards
36
150
Rush Attempts
17
36
Yards / Rush
2.1
4.2
EPA / Rush
-0.38
-0.07
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
15
Passing 1st downs
15
7
Rushing 1st downs
4
8
Penalty 1st downs
3
--
3rd Down %
55%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
6
6
3rd Down Attempts
11
15
Red Zone %
0%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-13.84
+3.72
Sacks
2
4
Sack Yards
-17
-7
Sack EPA
-3.20
-4.02
Penalties
3
8
Penalty Yards
20
60
Penalty EPA
-1.09
-7.18
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-4.5
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market66.6%
Model58.3%
Spread Pick
Jets+4.5
Expected Value
+14.3%
Cover Probability
59.9%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-8
Home nfelo
1,393
Away nfelo
1,512
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+27.4
Home QB Adjustment
+62.9
Away QB Adjustment
+35.5
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-58.3
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
B. Roethlisberger
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+35.5
M. Vick
Proj. Value
-2.6
Team Elo Adj
+62.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Steelers Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
24
Yards / Game
2
7
Passing Yards / Game
6
30
Rushing Yards / Game
17
5
EPA
EPA / Play
4
26
EPA / Pass
3
24
EPA / Rush
19
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
7
8
Interceptions / Game
7
30
Fumbles / Game
21
21
Turnover EPA / Game
21
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
30
4th Down Efficiency
10
1
RZ Efficiency
20
27
Jets Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
21
Yards / Game
22
17
Passing Yards / Game
23
22
Rushing Yards / Game
3
6
EPA
EPA / Play
24
27
EPA / Pass
29
25
EPA / Rush
10
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
25
17
Interceptions / Game
17
26
Fumbles / Game
10
14
Turnover EPA / Game
15
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
9
4th Down Efficiency
7
32
RZ Efficiency
32
19
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Steelers
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Jets
2-8
SU
2-7-1
ATS
5-5
O/U