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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. steelers @ jets week 10, 2014

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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PIT logo
PITSteelers
6-3
13
TBD
MetLife Stadium
58°F
8 mph
20
NYJJets
1-8
NYJ logo
TBD
MetLife Stadium
58°F
8 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Steelers
0
3
0
10
13
Jets
17
0
3
0
20

Spread

NYJ logo
+4.5

Total

UNDER
47

Game Statistics

General
Steelers logo
Jets logo
Total Yards
362
275
Total Plays
62
58
Yards / Play
5.8
4.7
EPA / Play
-0.12
-0.02
Passing Yards
326
125
Comp/Att
30/43(70%)
10/18(56%)
Yards / Pass
7.6
6.9
EPA / Pass
-0.02
+0.05
Rushing Yards
36
150
Rush Attempts
17
36
Yards / Rush
2.1
4.2
EPA / Rush
-0.38
-0.07
Downs & Conversions
Steelers logo
Jets logo
1st Downs
22
15
Passing 1st downs
15
7
Rushing 1st downs
4
8
Penalty 1st downs
3
--
3rd Down %
55%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
6
6
3rd Down Attempts
11
15
Red Zone %
0%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Steelers logo
Jets logo
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-13.84
+3.72
Sacks
2
4
Sack Yards
-17
-7
Sack EPA
-3.20
-4.02
Penalties
3
8
Penalty Yards
20
60
Penalty EPA
-1.09
-7.18

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
PIT logo
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-4.5
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market66.6%
Model58.5%
Spread Pick
NYJ logo
Jets+4.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+14.3%
Cover Probability
59.9%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-11
Home nfelo
1,393
Away nfelo
1,516
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+27.4
Home QB Adjustment
+62.9
Away QB Adjustment
+35.5
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-59.8
Model Spread
+3.0

Quarterbacks

B. Roethlisberger headshot

B. Roethlisberger

Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+35.5
Value
Ptile
12/29
-4.4
22
09/07
1.6
63
09/11
-3.9
27
09/21
3.8
76
09/28
3.1
71
10/05
-0.8
44
10/12
-4.2
25
10/20
1.6
62
10/26
22.7
100
11/02
10.0
96
M. Vick headshot

M. Vick

Proj. Value
-2.6
Team Elo Adj
+62.9
Value
Ptile
11/05
-5.8
13
11/11
-1.9
37
12/30
-2.4
34
09/09
4.6
82
09/15
11.1
97
09/19
-3.8
25
09/29
-0.7
46
10/06
0.0
49
10/27
-8.3
6
11/02
1.2
59

Team Matchup Ranks

Steelers Offense vs Jets Defense
Steelers logo
Jets logo

Total

Points / Game
7
24
Yards / Game
2
7
Passing Yards / Game
6
30
Rushing Yards / Game
17
5

EPA

EPA / Play
4
26
EPA / Pass
3
24
EPA / Rush
19
15

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
7
8
Interceptions / Game
7
30
Fumbles / Game
21
21
Turnover EPA / Game
21
2

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
7
30
4th Down Efficiency
10
1
RZ Efficiency
20
27
Jets Offense vs Steelers Defense
Jets logo
Steelers logo

Total

Points / Game
28
21
Yards / Game
22
17
Passing Yards / Game
23
22
Rushing Yards / Game
3
6

EPA

EPA / Play
24
27
EPA / Pass
29
25
EPA / Rush
10
14

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
25
17
Interceptions / Game
17
26
Fumbles / Game
10
14
Turnover EPA / Game
15
13

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
20
9
4th Down Efficiency
7
32
RZ Efficiency
32
19

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

PIT logo

Steelers

7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/29
13
W
W
U
09/07
3
W
L
O
09/11
-20
L
L
U
09/21
18
W
W
O
09/28
-3
L
L
O
10/05
8
W
W
U
10/12
-21
L
L
U
10/20
7
W
W
O
10/26
17
W
W
O
11/02
20
W
W
O
NYJ logo

Jets

2-8
SU
2-7-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/29
13
W
W
U
09/07
5
W
L
U
09/14
-7
L
P
O
09/22
-8
L
L
O
09/28
-7
L
L
U
10/05
-31
L
L
U
10/12
-14
L
L
O
10/16
-2
L
W
O
10/26
-20
L
L
O
11/02
-14
L
L
U