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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. steelers @ lions week 5, 2009

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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PIT logo
PITSteelers
2-2
28
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0
20
DETLions
1-3
DET logo
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Steelers
7
14
7
0
28
Lions
6
1
0
7
14

Spread

DET logo
+11

Total

OVER
44

Game Statistics

General
Steelers logo
Lions logo
Total Yards
344
335
Total Plays
54
69
Yards / Play
6.4
4.9
EPA / Play
+0.17
-0.02
Passing Yards
262
225
Comp/Att
23/30(77%)
23/37(62%)
Yards / Pass
8.7
6.1
EPA / Pass
+0.24
-0.05
Rushing Yards
82
110
Rush Attempts
21
25
Yards / Rush
3.9
4.4
EPA / Rush
+0.02
+0.05
Downs & Conversions
Steelers logo
Lions logo
1st Downs
18
21
Passing 1st downs
14
15
Rushing 1st downs
3
5
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
38%
61%
3rd Down Conversions
3
11
3rd Down Attempts
8
18
Red Zone %
100%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
3
--
Red Zone Attempts
3
1
Negative Plays
Steelers logo
Lions logo
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-7.22
-4.79
Sacks
3
7
Sack Yards
-15
-57
Sack EPA
-3.81
-9.84
Penalties
6
6
Penalty Yards
59
66
Penalty EPA
-6.65
-7.82

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
PIT logo
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-13.0
Current
-11.0
Model
-12.0

Win Probability

Market82.5%
Model84.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-319
Home nfelo
1,295
Away nfelo
1,631
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-67.6
Home QB Adjustment
-48.8
Away QB Adjustment
+18.8
Market Regression
+15.7
Final Difference
-288.3
Model Spread
+12.0

Quarterbacks

B. Roethlisberger headshot

B. Roethlisberger

Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+18.8
Value
Ptile
12/14
1.6
63
12/21
0.6
56
12/28
-3.6
24
01/11
0.0
52
01/18
-1.8
38
02/01
-0.9
46
09/10
2.7
67
09/20
1.7
61
09/27
4.7
80
10/04
6.4
87
D. Culpepper headshot

D. Culpepper

Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
-48.8
Value
Ptile
10/14
-5.6
15
10/21
-0.1
48
10/28
-8.2
4
11/18
-2.2
35
11/25
-0.9
42
11/09
-7.4
8
11/16
-2.2
34
11/23
-8.8
4
11/27
-3.9
22
12/07
-0.1
52

Team Matchup Ranks

Steelers Offense vs Lions Defense
Steelers logo
Lions logo

Total

Points / Game
12
32
Yards / Game
7
32
Passing Yards / Game
3
30
Rushing Yards / Game
20
25

EPA

EPA / Play
7
29
EPA / Pass
10
31
EPA / Rush
14
7

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
31
9
Interceptions / Game
10
30
Fumbles / Game
19
7
Turnover EPA / Game
13
15

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
17
25
4th Down Efficiency
4
29
RZ Efficiency
26
17
Lions Offense vs Steelers Defense
Lions logo
Steelers logo

Total

Points / Game
27
11
Yards / Game
26
6
Passing Yards / Game
12
31
Rushing Yards / Game
23
5

EPA

EPA / Play
30
22
EPA / Pass
29
13
EPA / Rush
25
19

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
4
2
Interceptions / Game
32
25
Fumbles / Game
13
16
Turnover EPA / Game
1
7

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
23
28
4th Down Efficiency
32
30
RZ Efficiency
24
6

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

PIT logo

Steelers

7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
2-2-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/14
4
W
W
P
12/21
-17
L
L
P
12/28
31
W
W
P
01/11
11
W
W
P
01/18
9
W
W
P
02/01
4
W
L
P
09/10
3
W
L
U
09/20
-3
L
L
U
09/27
-3
L
L
O
10/04
10
W
W
O
DET logo

Lions

1-9
SU
4-6
ATS
2-2-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/23
-18
L
L
P
11/27
-37
L
L
P
12/07
-4
L
W
P
12/14
-10
L
W
P
12/21
-35
L
L
P
12/28
-10
L
W
P
09/13
-18
L
L
O
09/20
-14
L
L
U
09/27
5
W
W
U
10/04
-24
L
L
O