PITSteelers
2-2
28
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
020
DETLions
1-3
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Steelers
7
14
7
0
28
Lions
6
1
0
7
14
Spread
+11
Total
OVER
44
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
344
335
Total Plays
54
69
Yards / Play
6.4
4.9
EPA / Play
+0.17
-0.02
Passing Yards
262
225
Comp/Att
23/30(77%)
23/37(62%)
Yards / Pass
8.7
6.1
EPA / Pass
+0.24
-0.05
Rushing Yards
82
110
Rush Attempts
21
25
Yards / Rush
3.9
4.4
EPA / Rush
+0.02
+0.05
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
21
Passing 1st downs
14
15
Rushing 1st downs
3
5
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
38%
61%
3rd Down Conversions
3
11
3rd Down Attempts
8
18
Red Zone %
100%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
3
--
Red Zone Attempts
3
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-7.22
-4.79
Sacks
3
7
Sack Yards
-15
-57
Sack EPA
-3.81
-9.84
Penalties
6
6
Penalty Yards
59
66
Penalty EPA
-6.65
-7.82
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-13.0
Current
-11.0
Model
-12.0
Win Probability
Market82.5%
Model84.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-320
Home nfelo
1,296
Away nfelo
1,633
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-67.6
Home QB Adjustment
-48.8
Away QB Adjustment
+18.8
Market Regression
+15.5
Final Difference
-288.6
Model Spread
+12.0
Quarterbacks
B. Roethlisberger
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+18.8
D. Culpepper
Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
-48.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Steelers Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
32
Yards / Game
7
32
Passing Yards / Game
3
30
Rushing Yards / Game
20
25
EPA
EPA / Play
7
29
EPA / Pass
10
31
EPA / Rush
14
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
9
Interceptions / Game
10
30
Fumbles / Game
19
7
Turnover EPA / Game
13
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
25
4th Down Efficiency
4
29
RZ Efficiency
26
17
Lions Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
11
Yards / Game
26
6
Passing Yards / Game
12
31
Rushing Yards / Game
23
5
EPA
EPA / Play
30
22
EPA / Pass
29
13
EPA / Rush
25
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
2
Interceptions / Game
32
25
Fumbles / Game
13
16
Turnover EPA / Game
1
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
23
28
4th Down Efficiency
32
30
RZ Efficiency
24
6
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Steelers
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
2-2-6
O/U
Lions
1-9
SU
4-6
ATS
2-2-6
O/U