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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. steelers @ lions week 16, 2025

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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PIT logo
PITSteelers
8-6
29
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0
24
DETLions
8-6
DET logo
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Steelers
3
7
0
17
27
Lions
0
10
0
14
24

Spread

PIT logo
+7.5

Total

OVER
52.5

Game Statistics

General
Steelers logo
Lions logo
Total Yards
481
361
Total Plays
70
69
Yards / Play
6.9
5.2
EPA / Play
+0.14
+0.06
Passing Yards
251
346
Comp/Att
27/41(66%)
34/54(63%)
Yards / Pass
6.1
6.4
EPA / Pass
+0.15
+0.20
Rushing Yards
230
15
Rush Attempts
27
12
Yards / Rush
8.5
1.3
EPA / Rush
+0.32
-0.33
Downs & Conversions
Steelers logo
Lions logo
1st Downs
23
23
Passing 1st downs
14
19
Rushing 1st downs
8
2
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
50%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
8
6
3rd Down Attempts
16
15
Red Zone %
0%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Steelers logo
Lions logo
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-4.98
--
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-15
-18
Sack EPA
-4.22
-4.32
Penalties
8
7
Penalty Yards
89
40
Penalty EPA
-7.91
-8.46

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
DET logo
DETLionsFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-7.5
Model
-7.5

Win Probability

Market74.4%
Model74.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+174
Home nfelo
1,622
Away nfelo
1,517
Home Field
+59.9
Base HFA
+44.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.5
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+8.5
Home QB Adjustment
+8.3
Away QB Adjustment
-0.3
Market Regression
+14.3
Final Difference
185.3
Model Spread
-7.5

Quarterbacks

A. Rodgers headshot

A. Rodgers

Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
-0.3
Value
Ptile
09/28
1.1
58
10/12
4.8
83
10/16
3.4
75
10/26
-0.1
50
11/02
-1.7
38
11/09
-8.2
4
11/16
-2.7
32
11/30
-4.2
22
12/07
5.7
88
12/15
3.5
75
J. Goff headshot

J. Goff

Proj. Value
+1.5
Team Elo Adj
+8.3
Value
Ptile
10/05
2.1
65
10/12
4.6
81
10/20
-4.5
21
11/02
0.0
51
11/09
8.5
95
11/16
-5.1
16
11/23
-0.7
45
11/27
4.3
78
12/04
2.5
68
12/14
6.4
90

Team Matchup Ranks

Steelers Offense vs Lions Defense
Steelers logo
Lions logo

Total

Points / Game
15
23
Yards / Game
26
18
Passing Yards / Game
29
21
Rushing Yards / Game
26
16

EPA

EPA / Play
16
12
EPA / Pass
16
14
EPA / Rush
8
15

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
26
16
Interceptions / Game
9
13
Fumbles / Game
6
19
Turnover EPA / Game
28
17

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
19
11
4th Down Efficiency
20
25
RZ Efficiency
13
21
Lions Offense vs Steelers Defense
Lions logo
Steelers logo

Total

Points / Game
3
15
Yards / Game
6
27
Passing Yards / Game
14
30
Rushing Yards / Game
15
12

EPA

EPA / Play
8
13
EPA / Pass
6
16
EPA / Rush
25
21

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
29
24
Interceptions / Game
3
8
Fumbles / Game
15
2
Turnover EPA / Game
25
30

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
20
25
4th Down Efficiency
15
28
RZ Efficiency
5
6

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

PIT logo

Steelers

5-5
SU
5-4-1
ATS
4-5-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/12
14
W
W
U
10/16
-2
L
L
O
10/26
-10
L
L
O
11/02
7
W
W
U
11/09
-15
L
L
U
11/16
22
W
W
U
11/23
-3
L
P
O
11/30
-19
L
L
U
12/07
5
W
W
O
12/15
13
W
W
P
DET logo

Lions

5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/05
13
W
W
O
10/12
-13
L
L
U
10/20
15
W
W
U
11/02
-3
L
L
O
11/09
22
W
W
O
11/16
-7
L
L
U
11/23
7
W
L
O
11/27
-7
L
L
O
12/04
14
W
W
O
12/14
-7
L
L
O