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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. steelers @ panthers week 3, 2014

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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PIT logo
PITSteelers
1-1
37
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
79°F
7 mph
19
CARPanthers
2-0
CAR logo
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
79°F
7 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Steelers
3
6
14
14
37
Panthers
3
0
3
13
19

Spread

PIT logo
+3.5

Total

OVER
42.5

Game Statistics

General
Steelers logo
Panthers logo
Total Yards
454
349
Total Plays
65
55
Yards / Play
7.0
6.3
EPA / Play
+0.42
+0.09
Passing Yards
190
307
Comp/Att
22/30(73%)
29/42(69%)
Yards / Pass
6.3
7.3
EPA / Pass
+0.16
+0.12
Rushing Yards
264
42
Rush Attempts
34
10
Yards / Rush
7.8
4.2
EPA / Rush
+0.31
-0.12
Downs & Conversions
Steelers logo
Panthers logo
1st Downs
24
20
Passing 1st downs
9
14
Rushing 1st downs
12
3
Penalty 1st downs
3
3
3rd Down %
27%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
3
4
3rd Down Attempts
11
12
Red Zone %
75%
NaN%
Red Zone Conversions
3
--
Red Zone Attempts
4
--
Negative Plays
Steelers logo
Panthers logo
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
+7.79
-4.41
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-6
-23
Sack EPA
-1.14
-7.47
Penalties
11
7
Penalty Yards
91
105
Penalty EPA
-9.10
-10.04

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
CAR logo
CARPanthersFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-6.5

Win Probability

Market62.5%
Model70.9%
Spread Pick
CAR logo
Panthers-3.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+11.3%
Cover Probability
58.3%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+208
Home nfelo
1,555
Away nfelo
1,491
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+82.2
Home QB Adjustment
+82.6
Away QB Adjustment
+0.3
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
154.8
Model Spread
-6.5

Quarterbacks

B. Roethlisberger headshot

B. Roethlisberger

Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+0.3
Value
Ptile
11/10
-4.6
21
11/17
9.5
95
11/24
3.5
74
11/28
6.7
89
12/08
6.3
87
12/15
0.9
56
12/22
1.2
58
12/29
-4.4
22
09/07
1.6
63
09/11
-3.9
27
C. Newton headshot

C. Newton

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+82.6
Value
Ptile
11/10
-7.5
10
11/18
6.8
89
11/24
-0.5
47
12/01
6.9
90
12/08
-1.4
43
12/15
1.4
60
12/22
-5.7
16
12/29
0.3
52
01/12
-2.4
37
09/14
1.1
58

Team Matchup Ranks

Steelers Offense vs Panthers Defense
Steelers logo
Panthers logo

Total

Points / Game
7
20
Yards / Game
2
6
Passing Yards / Game
6
19
Rushing Yards / Game
17
11

EPA

EPA / Play
4
16
EPA / Pass
3
14
EPA / Rush
19
21

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
7
14
Interceptions / Game
7
15
Fumbles / Game
21
4
Turnover EPA / Game
21
16

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
7
21
4th Down Efficiency
10
14
RZ Efficiency
20
29
Panthers Offense vs Steelers Defense
Panthers logo
Steelers logo

Total

Points / Game
19
21
Yards / Game
15
17
Passing Yards / Game
20
22
Rushing Yards / Game
7
6

EPA

EPA / Play
17
27
EPA / Pass
19
25
EPA / Rush
11
14

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
22
17
Interceptions / Game
14
26
Fumbles / Game
14
14
Turnover EPA / Game
12
13

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
12
9
4th Down Efficiency
10
32
RZ Efficiency
25
19

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

PIT logo

Steelers

7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/10
13
W
W
U
11/17
10
W
W
O
11/24
16
W
W
U
11/28
-2
L
W
O
12/08
-6
L
L
O
12/15
10
W
W
O
12/22
7
W
W
O
12/29
13
W
W
U
09/07
3
W
L
O
09/11
-20
L
L
U
CAR logo

Panthers

8-2
SU
5-4-1
ATS
1-9
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/18
4
W
W
U
11/24
4
W
L
U
12/01
21
W
W
U
12/08
-18
L
L
U
12/15
10
W
P
O
12/22
4
W
W
U
12/29
1
W
L
U
01/12
-13
L
L
U
09/07
6
W
W
U
09/14
17
W
W
U