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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. steelers @ patriots week 9, 2013

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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PIT logo
PITSteelers
2-5
31
TBD
Gillette Stadium
44°F
6 mph
55
NEPatriots
6-2
NE logo
TBD
Gillette Stadium
44°F
6 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Steelers
0
10
14
7
31
Patriots
7
17
3
28
55

Spread

NE logo
-6

Total

OVER
42.5

Game Statistics

General
Steelers logo
Patriots logo
Total Yards
479
610
Total Plays
73
71
Yards / Play
6.6
8.6
EPA / Play
+0.08
+0.40
Passing Yards
371
413
Comp/Att
28/48(58%)
23/33(70%)
Yards / Pass
7.7
12.5
EPA / Pass
+0.16
+0.63
Rushing Yards
108
197
Rush Attempts
20
35
Yards / Rush
5.4
5.6
EPA / Rush
+0.02
+0.20
Downs & Conversions
Steelers logo
Patriots logo
1st Downs
24
33
Passing 1st downs
18
17
Rushing 1st downs
6
13
Penalty 1st downs
--
3
3rd Down %
38%
58%
3rd Down Conversions
5
7
3rd Down Attempts
13
12
Red Zone %
75%
63%
Red Zone Conversions
3
5
Red Zone Attempts
4
8
Negative Plays
Steelers logo
Patriots logo
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-12.73
-5.21
Sacks
5
3
Sack Yards
-29
-19
Sack EPA
-9.29
-5.15
Penalties
8
3
Penalty Yards
96
--
Penalty EPA
-9.69
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NE logo
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-6.0
Model
-6.0

Win Probability

Market69.3%
Model69.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+171
Home nfelo
1,618
Away nfelo
1,494
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-37.0
Home QB Adjustment
-39.5
Away QB Adjustment
-2.5
Market Regression
-29.6
Final Difference
141.4
Model Spread
-6.0

Quarterbacks

B. Roethlisberger headshot

B. Roethlisberger

Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
-2.5
Value
Ptile
12/16
0.1
51
12/23
-6.6
11
12/30
0.3
51
09/08
-5.5
17
09/16
-1.6
42
09/22
2.6
68
09/29
0.9
56
10/13
3.2
72
10/20
0.5
54
10/27
-5.6
17
T. Brady headshot

T. Brady

Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
-39.5
Value
Ptile
01/13
8.4
93
01/20
-0.1
49
09/08
-1.9
40
09/12
-1.8
40
09/22
-0.9
45
09/29
4.7
82
10/06
-8.3
7
10/13
-3.6
27
10/20
-8.1
7
10/27
-6.4
13

Team Matchup Ranks

Steelers Offense vs Patriots Defense
Steelers logo
Patriots logo

Total

Points / Game
16
10
Yards / Game
20
28
Passing Yards / Game
14
22
Rushing Yards / Game
27
28

EPA

EPA / Play
18
15
EPA / Pass
9
14
EPA / Rush
29
23

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
7
21
Interceptions / Game
13
10
Fumbles / Game
17
22
Turnover EPA / Game
16
21

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
17
27
4th Down Efficiency
9
2
RZ Efficiency
20
11
Patriots Offense vs Steelers Defense
Patriots logo
Steelers logo

Total

Points / Game
2
13
Yards / Game
6
13
Passing Yards / Game
10
14
Rushing Yards / Game
8
21

EPA

EPA / Play
3
13
EPA / Pass
8
10
EPA / Rush
13
24

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
27
14
Interceptions / Game
5
29
Fumbles / Game
16
16
Turnover EPA / Game
24
15

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
12
20
4th Down Efficiency
18
17
RZ Efficiency
8
19

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

PIT logo

Steelers

3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/16
-3
L
L
O
12/23
-3
L
L
U
12/30
14
W
W
U
09/08
-7
L
L
U
09/16
-10
L
L
U
09/22
-17
L
L
O
09/29
-7
L
L
O
10/13
13
W
W
U
10/20
3
W
W
U
10/27
-3
L
L
U
NE logo

Patriots

7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/13
13
W
W
O
01/20
-15
L
L
U
09/08
2
W
L
U
09/12
3
W
L
U
09/22
20
W
W
U
09/29
7
W
W
O
10/06
-7
L
L
U
10/13
3
W
W
O
10/20
-3
L
L
O
10/27
10
W
W
U