PITSteelers
2-5
31
TBD
Gillette Stadium
44°F
6 mph
55
NEPatriots
6-2
TBD
Gillette Stadium
44°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Steelers
0
10
14
7
31
Patriots
7
17
3
28
55
Spread
-6
Total
OVER
42.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
479
610
Total Plays
73
71
Yards / Play
6.6
8.6
EPA / Play
+0.08
+0.40
Passing Yards
371
413
Comp/Att
28/48(58%)
23/33(70%)
Yards / Pass
7.7
12.5
EPA / Pass
+0.16
+0.63
Rushing Yards
108
197
Rush Attempts
20
35
Yards / Rush
5.4
5.6
EPA / Rush
+0.02
+0.20
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
24
33
Passing 1st downs
18
17
Rushing 1st downs
6
13
Penalty 1st downs
--
3
3rd Down %
38%
58%
3rd Down Conversions
5
7
3rd Down Attempts
13
12
Red Zone %
75%
63%
Red Zone Conversions
3
5
Red Zone Attempts
4
8
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-12.73
-5.21
Sacks
5
3
Sack Yards
-29
-19
Sack EPA
-9.29
-5.15
Penalties
8
3
Penalty Yards
96
--
Penalty EPA
-9.69
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-6.0
Model
-6.0
Win Probability
Market69.3%
Model69.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+171
Home nfelo
1,618
Away nfelo
1,494
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-37.0
Home QB Adjustment
-39.5
Away QB Adjustment
-2.5
Market Regression
-29.6
Final Difference
141.4
Model Spread
-6.0
Quarterbacks
B. Roethlisberger
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
-2.5
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
-39.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Steelers Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
10
Yards / Game
20
28
Passing Yards / Game
14
22
Rushing Yards / Game
27
28
EPA
EPA / Play
18
15
EPA / Pass
9
14
EPA / Rush
29
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
7
21
Interceptions / Game
13
10
Fumbles / Game
17
22
Turnover EPA / Game
16
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
27
4th Down Efficiency
9
2
RZ Efficiency
20
11
Patriots Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
13
Yards / Game
6
13
Passing Yards / Game
10
14
Rushing Yards / Game
8
21
EPA
EPA / Play
3
13
EPA / Pass
8
10
EPA / Rush
13
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
14
Interceptions / Game
5
29
Fumbles / Game
16
16
Turnover EPA / Game
24
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
20
4th Down Efficiency
18
17
RZ Efficiency
8
19
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Steelers
3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
3-7
O/U
Patriots
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U