PITSteelers
13-5
17
TBD
Gillette Stadium
41°F
10 mph
36
NEPatriots
15-2
TBD
Gillette Stadium
41°F
10 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Steelers
0
9
0
8
17
Patriots
10
7
16
3
36
Spread
-5.5
Total
OVER
49.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
370
431
Total Plays
68
71
Yards / Play
5.4
6.1
EPA / Play
-0.06
+0.23
Passing Yards
--
374
Comp/Att
31/48(65%)
32/42(76%)
Yards / Pass
--
8.9
EPA / Pass
+0.08
+0.42
Rushing Yards
54
57
Rush Attempts
20
27
Yards / Rush
2.7
2.1
EPA / Rush
-0.22
-0.17
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
26
Passing 1st downs
18
17
Rushing 1st downs
3
8
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
60%
65%
3rd Down Conversions
9
11
3rd Down Attempts
15
17
Red Zone %
33%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-9.95
--
Sacks
--
2
Sack Yards
--
-10
Sack EPA
--
-3.13
Penalties
3
2
Penalty Yards
19
10
Penalty EPA
-3.99
-1.06
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-5.5
Model
-6.0
Win Probability
Market68.0%
Model69.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+190
Home nfelo
1,694
Away nfelo
1,642
Home Field
+77.3
Base HFA
+57.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.0
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+42.6
Home QB Adjustment
+37.4
Away QB Adjustment
-5.2
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
142.9
Model Spread
-6.0
Quarterbacks
B. Roethlisberger
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
-5.2
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+37.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Steelers Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
1
Yards / Game
6
8
Passing Yards / Game
25
6
Rushing Yards / Game
8
3
EPA
EPA / Play
6
5
EPA / Pass
7
8
EPA / Rush
3
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
25
27
Interceptions / Game
21
12
Fumbles / Game
4
10
Turnover EPA / Game
20
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
4
4th Down Efficiency
11
7
RZ Efficiency
16
12
Patriots Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
10
Yards / Game
4
10
Passing Yards / Game
8
10
Rushing Yards / Game
12
8
EPA
EPA / Play
2
18
EPA / Pass
2
15
EPA / Rush
16
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
32
Interceptions / Game
1
19
Fumbles / Game
14
15
Turnover EPA / Game
31
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
24
4th Down Efficiency
6
19
RZ Efficiency
8
5
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Steelers
9-1
SU
7-3
ATS
4-6
O/U
Patriots
9-1
SU
8-2
ATS
5-5
O/U