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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. steelers @ patriots week 20, 2016

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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PIT logo
PITSteelers
13-5
17
TBD
Gillette Stadium
41°F
10 mph
36
NEPatriots
15-2
NE logo
TBD
Gillette Stadium
41°F
10 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Steelers
0
9
0
8
17
Patriots
10
7
16
3
36

Spread

NE logo
-5.5

Total

OVER
49.5

Game Statistics

General
Steelers logo
Patriots logo
Total Yards
370
431
Total Plays
68
71
Yards / Play
5.4
6.1
EPA / Play
-0.06
+0.23
Passing Yards
--
374
Comp/Att
31/48(65%)
32/42(76%)
Yards / Pass
--
8.9
EPA / Pass
+0.08
+0.42
Rushing Yards
54
57
Rush Attempts
20
27
Yards / Rush
2.7
2.1
EPA / Rush
-0.22
-0.17
Downs & Conversions
Steelers logo
Patriots logo
1st Downs
22
26
Passing 1st downs
18
17
Rushing 1st downs
3
8
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
60%
65%
3rd Down Conversions
9
11
3rd Down Attempts
15
17
Red Zone %
33%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
5
Negative Plays
Steelers logo
Patriots logo
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-9.95
--
Sacks
--
2
Sack Yards
--
-10
Sack EPA
--
-3.13
Penalties
3
2
Penalty Yards
19
10
Penalty EPA
-3.99
-1.06

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NE logo
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-5.5
Model
-6.0

Win Probability

Market68.0%
Model69.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+189
Home nfelo
1,694
Away nfelo
1,643
Home Field
+78.3
Base HFA
+58.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.3
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+42.6
Home QB Adjustment
+37.4
Away QB Adjustment
-5.2
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
142.8
Model Spread
-6.0

Quarterbacks

B. Roethlisberger headshot

B. Roethlisberger

Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
-5.2
Value
Ptile
11/06
-1.7
36
11/13
12.1
99
11/20
-2.4
31
11/24
4.4
81
12/04
2.2
65
12/11
-7.4
6
12/18
0.8
55
12/25
3.7
76
01/08
-2.3
31
01/15
-2.4
30
T. Brady headshot

T. Brady

Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+37.4
Value
Ptile
10/30
6.8
89
11/13
0.4
52
11/20
5.9
86
11/27
3.8
76
12/04
4.1
79
12/12
7.0
90
12/18
-3.3
24
12/24
2.7
70
01/01
8.0
93
01/14
-3.3
25

Team Matchup Ranks

Steelers Offense vs Patriots Defense
Steelers logo
Patriots logo

Total

Points / Game
12
1
Yards / Game
6
8
Passing Yards / Game
25
6
Rushing Yards / Game
8
3

EPA

EPA / Play
6
5
EPA / Pass
7
8
EPA / Rush
3
13

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
25
27
Interceptions / Game
21
12
Fumbles / Game
4
10
Turnover EPA / Game
20
19

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
10
4
4th Down Efficiency
11
7
RZ Efficiency
16
12
Patriots Offense vs Steelers Defense
Patriots logo
Steelers logo

Total

Points / Game
3
10
Yards / Game
4
10
Passing Yards / Game
8
10
Rushing Yards / Game
12
8

EPA

EPA / Play
2
18
EPA / Pass
2
15
EPA / Rush
16
17

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
17
32
Interceptions / Game
1
19
Fumbles / Game
14
15
Turnover EPA / Game
31
18

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
2
24
4th Down Efficiency
6
19
RZ Efficiency
8
5

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

PIT logo

Steelers

9-1
SU
7-3
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/13
-5
L
L
O
11/20
15
W
W
U
11/24
21
W
W
U
12/04
10
W
W
U
12/11
7
W
W
O
12/18
4
W
W
U
12/25
4
W
L
O
01/01
3
W
L
O
01/08
18
W
W
U
01/15
2
W
W
U
NE logo

Patriots

9-1
SU
8-2
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/30
16
W
W
O
11/13
-7
L
L
O
11/20
13
W
W
U
11/27
5
W
L
U
12/04
16
W
W
U
12/12
7
W
W
O
12/18
13
W
W
U
12/24
38
W
W
U
01/01
21
W
W
O
01/14
18
W
W
O