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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. steelers @ raiders week 6, 2024

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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    Team Power Ratings
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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PIT logo
PITSteelers
3-2
32
TBD
Allegiant Stadium
70°F
0
13
OAKRaiders
2-3
OAK logo
TBD
Allegiant Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Steelers
3
9
10
10
32
Raiders
7
0
0
6
13

Spread

PIT logo
-3.5

Total

OVER
36.5

Game Statistics

General
Steelers logo
Raiders logo
Total Yards
293
275
Total Plays
63
61
Yards / Play
4.7
4.5
EPA / Play
+0.11
-0.34
Passing Yards
110
218
Comp/Att
14/25(56%)
27/41(66%)
Yards / Pass
4.4
5.3
EPA / Pass
-0.02
-0.09
Rushing Yards
183
57
Rush Attempts
35
19
Yards / Rush
5.2
3.0
EPA / Rush
+0.11
-0.58
Downs & Conversions
Steelers logo
Raiders logo
1st Downs
18
16
Passing 1st downs
6
11
Rushing 1st downs
10
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
31%
18%
3rd Down Conversions
4
2
3rd Down Attempts
13
11
Red Zone %
50%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Steelers logo
Raiders logo
Turnovers
0
3
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
--
-14.46
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-35
-9
Sack EPA
-5.89
-1.74
Penalties
7
4
Penalty Yards
--
42
Penalty EPA
--
-6.32

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
PIT logo
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5

Win Probability

Market62.9%
Model62.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-40
Home nfelo
1,453
Away nfelo
1,526
Home Field
+53.8
Base HFA
+45.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+8.2
Net QB Adjustment
-21.7
Home QB Adjustment
-11.3
Away QB Adjustment
+10.4
Market Regression
-23.4
Final Difference
-91.7
Model Spread
+3.5

Quarterbacks

J. Fields headshot

J. Fields

Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+10.4
Value
Ptile
12/10
1.7
60
12/17
-5.8
15
12/24
3.7
74
12/31
3.1
71
01/07
-6.3
13
09/08
-1.1
41
09/15
-2.7
29
09/22
2.0
62
09/29
6.3
86
10/06
-1.9
35
A. O'Connell headshot

A. O'Connell

Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
-11.3
Value
Ptile
10/01
-6.9
11
11/05
-0.3
47
11/12
-5.0
20
11/19
-5.7
16
11/26
3.2
71
12/10
-7.5
10
12/14
5.0
81
12/25
-8.4
7
12/31
3.3
71
01/07
1.1
56

Team Matchup Ranks

Steelers Offense vs Raiders Defense
Steelers logo
Raiders logo

Total

Points / Game
20
25
Yards / Game
23
12
Passing Yards / Game
14
27
Rushing Yards / Game
12
12

EPA

EPA / Play
16
12
EPA / Pass
19
26
EPA / Rush
28
10

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
13
9
Interceptions / Game
3
22
Fumbles / Game
31
31
Turnover EPA / Game
30
5

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
12
17
4th Down Efficiency
31
31
RZ Efficiency
29
22
Raiders Offense vs Steelers Defense
Raiders logo
Steelers logo

Total

Points / Game
29
7
Yards / Game
27
15
Passing Yards / Game
9
23
Rushing Yards / Game
32
11

EPA

EPA / Play
31
8
EPA / Pass
24
16
EPA / Rush
32
13

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
11
8
Interceptions / Game
26
3
Fumbles / Game
29
4
Turnover EPA / Game
3
27

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
30
11
4th Down Efficiency
16
28
RZ Efficiency
26
13

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

PIT logo

Steelers

6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/16
-17
L
L
O
12/23
23
W
W
O
12/31
7
W
W
O
01/06
7
W
W
U
01/15
-14
L
L
O
09/08
8
W
W
U
09/15
7
W
W
U
09/22
10
W
W
U
09/29
-3
L
L
O
10/06
-3
L
L
U
OAK logo

Raiders

5-5
SU
6-3-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/10
-3
L
P
U
12/14
42
W
W
O
12/25
6
W
W
U
12/31
-3
L
W
O
01/07
13
W
W
O
09/08
-12
L
L
U
09/15
3
W
W
O
09/22
-14
L
L
O
09/29
4
W
W
U
10/06
-16
L
L
O