PITSteelers
3-2
32
TBD
Allegiant Stadium
70°F
013
OAKRaiders
2-3
TBD
Allegiant Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Steelers
3
9
10
10
32
Raiders
7
0
0
6
13
Spread
-3.5
Total
OVER
36.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
293
275
Total Plays
63
61
Yards / Play
4.7
4.5
EPA / Play
+0.11
-0.34
Passing Yards
110
218
Comp/Att
14/25(56%)
27/41(66%)
Yards / Pass
4.4
5.3
EPA / Pass
-0.02
-0.09
Rushing Yards
183
57
Rush Attempts
35
19
Yards / Rush
5.2
3.0
EPA / Rush
+0.11
-0.58
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
16
Passing 1st downs
6
11
Rushing 1st downs
10
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
31%
18%
3rd Down Conversions
4
2
3rd Down Attempts
13
11
Red Zone %
50%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
3
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
--
-14.46
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-35
-9
Sack EPA
-5.89
-1.74
Penalties
7
4
Penalty Yards
--
42
Penalty EPA
--
-6.32
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.9%
Model62.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-41
Home nfelo
1,455
Away nfelo
1,528
Home Field
+53.8
Base HFA
+45.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+8.2
Net QB Adjustment
-21.7
Home QB Adjustment
-11.3
Away QB Adjustment
+10.4
Market Regression
-23.4
Final Difference
-91.7
Model Spread
+3.5
Quarterbacks
J. Fields
Proj. Value
+0.8
Team Elo Adj
+10.4
A. O'Connell
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-11.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Steelers Offense vs Raiders Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
25
Yards / Game
23
12
Passing Yards / Game
14
27
Rushing Yards / Game
12
12
EPA
EPA / Play
16
12
EPA / Pass
19
26
EPA / Rush
28
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
13
9
Interceptions / Game
3
22
Fumbles / Game
31
31
Turnover EPA / Game
30
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
17
4th Down Efficiency
31
31
RZ Efficiency
29
22
Raiders Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
29
7
Yards / Game
27
15
Passing Yards / Game
9
23
Rushing Yards / Game
32
11
EPA
EPA / Play
31
8
EPA / Pass
24
16
EPA / Rush
32
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
8
Interceptions / Game
26
3
Fumbles / Game
29
4
Turnover EPA / Game
3
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
30
11
4th Down Efficiency
16
28
RZ Efficiency
26
13
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Steelers
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Raiders
5-5
SU
6-3-1
ATS
6-4
O/U