PITSteelers
2-4
18
TBD
Ring Central Coliseum
56°F
17 mph
21
OAKRaiders
2-4
TBD
Ring Central Coliseum
56°F
17 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Steelers
0
3
0
15
18
Raiders
14
7
0
0
21
Spread
+2.5
Total
UNDER
40
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
278
279
Total Plays
70
59
Yards / Play
4.0
4.7
EPA / Play
-0.18
-0.20
Passing Yards
241
82
Comp/Att
29/45(64%)
10/19(53%)
Yards / Pass
5.4
4.3
EPA / Pass
-0.08
-0.63
Rushing Yards
37
197
Rush Attempts
20
38
Yards / Rush
1.9
5.2
EPA / Rush
-0.13
+0.06
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
13
Passing 1st downs
13
5
Rushing 1st downs
5
8
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
27%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
4
5
3rd Down Attempts
15
14
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
3
Interceptions
2
2
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-5.24
-10.96
Sacks
5
2
Sack Yards
-34
-6
Sack EPA
-6.13
-2.62
Penalties
3
6
Penalty Yards
12
39
Penalty EPA
-1.80
-4.67
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.6%
Model56.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-35
Home nfelo
1,378
Away nfelo
1,499
Home Field
+91.6
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+17.9
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-5.6
Home QB Adjustment
-0.7
Away QB Adjustment
+5.0
Market Regression
+22.1
Final Difference
-46.1
Model Spread
+2.5
Quarterbacks
B. Roethlisberger
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+5.0
T. Pryor
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
-0.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Steelers Offense vs Raiders Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
29
Yards / Game
20
21
Passing Yards / Game
14
30
Rushing Yards / Game
27
11
EPA
EPA / Play
18
26
EPA / Pass
9
32
EPA / Rush
29
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
7
11
Interceptions / Game
13
31
Fumbles / Game
17
11
Turnover EPA / Game
16
14
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
28
4th Down Efficiency
9
6
RZ Efficiency
20
22
Raiders Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
13
Yards / Game
23
13
Passing Yards / Game
30
14
Rushing Yards / Game
11
21
EPA
EPA / Play
24
13
EPA / Pass
24
10
EPA / Rush
16
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
14
Interceptions / Game
24
29
Fumbles / Game
27
16
Turnover EPA / Game
9
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
20
4th Down Efficiency
10
17
RZ Efficiency
5
19
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Steelers
3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U
Raiders
3-7
SU
5-4-1
ATS
2-8
O/U