PITSteelers
1-0
6
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
82°F
6 mph
26
BALRavens
0-1
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
82°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Steelers
0
3
3
0
6
Ravens
7
3
7
9
26
Spread
-2.5
Total
UNDER
44
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
301
323
Total Plays
57
65
Yards / Play
5.3
5.0
EPA / Play
-0.24
+0.12
Passing Yards
202
--
Comp/Att
22/37(59%)
21/29(72%)
Yards / Pass
5.5
--
EPA / Pass
-0.36
+0.28
Rushing Yards
99
157
Rush Attempts
18
36
Yards / Rush
5.5
4.4
EPA / Rush
+0.04
-0.02
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
25
Passing 1st downs
11
11
Rushing 1st downs
5
9
Penalty 1st downs
1
5
3rd Down %
50%
42%
3rd Down Conversions
6
5
3rd Down Attempts
12
12
Red Zone %
0%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-15.61
--
Sacks
2
--
Sack Yards
-15
--
Sack EPA
-2.49
--
Penalties
9
4
Penalty Yards
75
35
Penalty EPA
-10.95
-6.06
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.1%
Model55.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+10
Home nfelo
1,487
Away nfelo
1,518
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-14.7
Home QB Adjustment
-8.0
Away QB Adjustment
+6.7
Market Regression
-8.4
Final Difference
36.0
Model Spread
-2.5
Quarterbacks
B. Roethlisberger
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+6.7
J. Flacco
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
-8.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Steelers Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
7
Yards / Game
2
13
Passing Yards / Game
6
27
Rushing Yards / Game
17
3
EPA
EPA / Play
4
13
EPA / Pass
3
23
EPA / Rush
19
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
7
32
Interceptions / Game
7
21
Fumbles / Game
21
9
Turnover EPA / Game
21
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
17
4th Down Efficiency
10
11
RZ Efficiency
20
2
Ravens Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
21
Yards / Game
12
17
Passing Yards / Game
30
22
Rushing Yards / Game
9
6
EPA
EPA / Play
5
27
EPA / Pass
6
25
EPA / Rush
13
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
17
Interceptions / Game
10
26
Fumbles / Game
7
14
Turnover EPA / Game
26
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
9
4th Down Efficiency
5
32
RZ Efficiency
14
19
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Steelers
7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
7-3
O/U
Ravens
5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U