PITSteelers
2-1
26
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
64°F
6 mph
9
BALRavens
2-1
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
64°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Steelers
3
16
0
7
26
Ravens
0
0
9
0
9
Spread
-3.5
Total
UNDER
42
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
381
288
Total Plays
74
69
Yards / Play
5.1
4.2
EPA / Play
+0.02
-0.29
Passing Yards
208
206
Comp/Att
18/31(58%)
31/49(63%)
Yards / Pass
6.7
4.2
EPA / Pass
+0.12
-0.25
Rushing Yards
173
82
Rush Attempts
42
16
Yards / Rush
4.1
5.1
EPA / Rush
+0.05
-0.45
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
18
Passing 1st downs
10
14
Rushing 1st downs
10
4
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
47%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
7
5
3rd Down Attempts
15
13
Red Zone %
60%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
5
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
3
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-4.10
-13.52
Sacks
1
4
Sack Yards
-8
-29
Sack EPA
-1.59
-6.74
Penalties
8
6
Penalty Yards
60
55
Penalty EPA
-5.20
-5.81
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.9%
Model62.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-72
Home nfelo
1,510
Away nfelo
1,597
Home Field
+31.4
Base HFA
+57.3
Divisional Adj
-25.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-16.9
Home QB Adjustment
-18.8
Away QB Adjustment
-1.9
Market Regression
-45.6
Final Difference
-91.7
Model Spread
+3.5
Quarterbacks
B. Roethlisberger
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
-1.9
J. Flacco
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
-18.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Steelers Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
5
Yards / Game
3
12
Passing Yards / Game
5
12
Rushing Yards / Game
22
16
EPA
EPA / Play
5
2
EPA / Pass
6
2
EPA / Rush
19
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
25
Interceptions / Game
24
1
Fumbles / Game
3
4
Turnover EPA / Game
18
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
8
4th Down Efficiency
13
11
RZ Efficiency
18
9
Ravens Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
11
Yards / Game
27
5
Passing Yards / Game
31
13
Rushing Yards / Game
10
13
EPA
EPA / Play
14
17
EPA / Pass
20
12
EPA / Rush
14
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
28
Interceptions / Game
17
11
Fumbles / Game
1
22
Turnover EPA / Game
17
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
13
4th Down Efficiency
4
9
RZ Efficiency
9
31
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Steelers
8-2
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Ravens
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U