PITSteelers
6-4
17
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
58°F
5 mph
20
BALRavens
5-5
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
58°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Steelers
0
7
3
7
0
17
Ravens
7
7
0
3
3
20
Spread
+7.5
Total
OVER
35
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
298
393
Total Plays
64
69
Yards / Play
4.7
5.7
EPA / Play
-0.08
-0.06
Passing Yards
--
261
Comp/Att
12/26(46%)
23/35(66%)
Yards / Pass
--
7.5
EPA / Pass
-0.25
-0.11
Rushing Yards
153
132
Rush Attempts
38
29
Yards / Rush
4.0
4.6
EPA / Rush
+0.01
+0.06
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
21
Passing 1st downs
6
12
Rushing 1st downs
9
8
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
38%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
6
5
3rd Down Attempts
16
14
Red Zone %
NaN%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
--
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
-5.15
-8.49
Sacks
--
5
Sack Yards
--
-28
Sack EPA
--
-9.92
Penalties
5
9
Penalty Yards
59
80
Penalty EPA
-5.66
-5.33
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-9.0
Current
-7.5
Model
-7.5
Win Probability
Market74.4%
Model74.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+139
Home nfelo
1,612
Away nfelo
1,612
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+83.4
Home QB Adjustment
+6.1
Away QB Adjustment
-77.4
Market Regression
-16.2
Final Difference
185.3
Model Spread
-7.5
Quarterbacks
D. Dixon
Proj. Value
-3.0
Team Elo Adj
-77.4
No recent game data available
J. Flacco
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+6.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Steelers Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
2
Yards / Game
7
2
Passing Yards / Game
3
14
Rushing Yards / Game
20
3
EPA
EPA / Play
7
4
EPA / Pass
10
3
EPA / Rush
14
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
17
Interceptions / Game
10
5
Fumbles / Game
19
11
Turnover EPA / Game
13
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
8
4th Down Efficiency
4
10
RZ Efficiency
26
7
Ravens Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
11
Yards / Game
14
6
Passing Yards / Game
19
31
Rushing Yards / Game
4
5
EPA
EPA / Play
11
22
EPA / Pass
14
13
EPA / Rush
4
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
2
Interceptions / Game
13
25
Fumbles / Game
6
16
Turnover EPA / Game
27
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
28
4th Down Efficiency
24
30
RZ Efficiency
15
6
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Steelers
6-4
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U
Ravens
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U