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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. steelers @ ravens week 14, 2025

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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PIT logo
PITSteelers
6-6
27
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
44°F
6 mph
22
BALRavens
6-6
BAL logo
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
44°F
6 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Steelers
7
10
10
0
27
Ravens
3
6
7
6
22

Spread

PIT logo
+5.5

Total

OVER
43.5

Game Statistics

General
Steelers logo
Ravens logo
Total Yards
318
420
Total Plays
51
77
Yards / Play
6.2
5.5
EPA / Play
+0.28
+0.07
Passing Yards
--
203
Comp/Att
23/34(68%)
19/35(54%)
Yards / Pass
--
5.8
EPA / Pass
+0.31
-0.15
Rushing Yards
34
217
Rush Attempts
17
40
Yards / Rush
2.0
5.4
EPA / Rush
+0.17
+0.14
Downs & Conversions
Steelers logo
Ravens logo
1st Downs
13
22
Passing 1st downs
7
9
Rushing 1st downs
4
10
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
43%
39%
3rd Down Conversions
6
7
3rd Down Attempts
14
18
Red Zone %
50%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
6
Negative Plays
Steelers logo
Ravens logo
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-4.16
Sacks
--
2
Sack Yards
--
-16
Sack EPA
--
-4.42
Penalties
7
5
Penalty Yards
33
39
Penalty EPA
-5.80
-5.58

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
BAL logo
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-5.5
Model
-5.0

Win Probability

Market68.0%
Model67.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+98
Home nfelo
1,580
Away nfelo
1,499
Home Field
+24.4
Base HFA
+44.4
Divisional Adj
-20.0
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-7.2
Home QB Adjustment
-20.3
Away QB Adjustment
-13.1
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
124.1
Model Spread
-5.0

Quarterbacks

A. Rodgers headshot

A. Rodgers

Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
-13.1
Value
Ptile
09/14
-7.2
7
09/21
-1.2
40
09/28
1.1
58
10/12
4.8
83
10/16
3.4
75
10/26
-0.1
50
11/02
-1.7
38
11/09
-8.2
4
11/16
-2.7
32
11/30
-4.2
22
L. Jackson headshot

L. Jackson

Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
-20.3
Value
Ptile
01/19
4.3
77
09/07
8.0
94
09/14
4.3
79
09/22
1.8
63
09/28
-2.0
36
10/30
4.3
78
11/09
-0.1
50
11/16
-8.6
4
11/23
-4.2
23
11/27
-5.4
15

Team Matchup Ranks

Steelers Offense vs Ravens Defense
Steelers logo
Ravens logo

Total

Points / Game
15
18
Yards / Game
26
25
Passing Yards / Game
29
29
Rushing Yards / Game
26
11

EPA

EPA / Play
16
14
EPA / Pass
16
21
EPA / Rush
8
4

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
26
11
Interceptions / Game
9
15
Fumbles / Game
6
4
Turnover EPA / Game
28
21

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
19
9
4th Down Efficiency
20
19
RZ Efficiency
13
5
Ravens Offense vs Steelers Defense
Ravens logo
Steelers logo

Total

Points / Game
11
15
Yards / Game
16
27
Passing Yards / Game
19
30
Rushing Yards / Game
1
12

EPA

EPA / Play
14
13
EPA / Pass
25
16
EPA / Rush
1
21

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
3
24
Interceptions / Game
11
8
Fumbles / Game
28
2
Turnover EPA / Game
7
30

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
12
25
4th Down Efficiency
17
28
RZ Efficiency
29
6

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

PIT logo

Steelers

5-5
SU
5-4-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/21
7
W
W
U
09/28
3
W
W
O
10/12
14
W
W
U
10/16
-2
L
L
O
10/26
-10
L
L
O
11/02
7
W
W
U
11/09
-15
L
L
U
11/16
22
W
W
U
11/23
-3
L
P
O
11/30
-19
L
L
U
BAL logo

Ravens

5-5
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/22
-8
L
L
O
09/28
-17
L
L
O
10/05
-34
L
L
O
10/12
-14
L
L
U
10/26
14
W
W
O
10/30
22
W
W
U
11/09
8
W
W
U
11/16
7
W
L
O
11/23
13
W
L
U
11/27
-18
L
L
U