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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. steelers @ ravens week 16, 2015

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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PIT logo
PITSteelers
9-5
17
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
64°F
9 mph
20
BALRavens
4-10
BAL logo
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
64°F
9 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Steelers
0
3
7
7
17
Ravens
7
6
0
7
20

Spread

BAL logo
+11.5

Total

UNDER
47.5

Game Statistics

General
Steelers logo
Ravens logo
Total Yards
308
386
Total Plays
57
73
Yards / Play
5.4
5.3
EPA / Play
+0.02
+0.03
Passing Yards
198
265
Comp/Att
24/34(71%)
28/41(68%)
Yards / Pass
5.8
6.5
EPA / Pass
-0.18
+0.21
Rushing Yards
110
121
Rush Attempts
20
31
Yards / Rush
5.5
3.9
EPA / Rush
+0.04
-0.12
Downs & Conversions
Steelers logo
Ravens logo
1st Downs
21
22
Passing 1st downs
11
16
Rushing 1st downs
6
6
Penalty 1st downs
4
--
3rd Down %
25%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
2
9
3rd Down Attempts
8
18
Red Zone %
67%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Steelers logo
Ravens logo
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-7.63
--
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-22
-9
Sack EPA
-3.79
-1.98
Penalties
3
12
Penalty Yards
--
121
Penalty EPA
--
-13.16

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
PIT logo
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-10.0
Current
-11.5
Model
-11.5

Win Probability

Market83.2%
Model83.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-258
Home nfelo
1,455
Away nfelo
1,627
Home Field
+53.7
Base HFA
+59.8
Divisional Adj
-26.9
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.9
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-139.5
Home QB Adjustment
-95.6
Away QB Adjustment
+44.0
Market Regression
-36.0
Final Difference
-277.9
Model Spread
+11.5

Quarterbacks

B. Roethlisberger headshot

B. Roethlisberger

Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+44.0
Value
Ptile
01/03
-1.1
43
09/10
2.6
69
09/20
11.0
98
09/27
-3.3
26
11/01
-6.2
11
11/08
1.2
59
11/29
4.1
79
12/06
11.2
98
12/13
1.6
62
12/20
5.5
85
R. Mallett headshot

R. Mallett

Proj. Value
-2.9
Team Elo Adj
-95.6
Value
Ptile
11/16
2.0
65
11/23
-7.0
11
09/20
-1.6
39
09/27
-1.7
38
10/04
-6.8
8
10/08
-7.3
6

Team Matchup Ranks

Steelers Offense vs Ravens Defense
Steelers logo
Ravens logo

Total

Points / Game
7
24
Yards / Game
3
10
Passing Yards / Game
13
16
Rushing Yards / Game
14
12

EPA

EPA / Play
9
21
EPA / Pass
12
24
EPA / Rush
7
8

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
28
30
Interceptions / Game
29
32
Fumbles / Game
7
15
Turnover EPA / Game
16
3

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
24
20
4th Down Efficiency
29
11
RZ Efficiency
13
11
Ravens Offense vs Steelers Defense
Ravens logo
Steelers logo

Total

Points / Game
24
9
Yards / Game
14
19
Passing Yards / Game
25
30
Rushing Yards / Game
26
5

EPA

EPA / Play
22
9
EPA / Pass
23
13
EPA / Rush
26
3

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
16
18
Interceptions / Game
31
8
Fumbles / Game
3
2
Turnover EPA / Game
8
28

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
21
15
4th Down Efficiency
15
4
RZ Efficiency
24
6

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

PIT logo

Steelers

7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/12
4
W
W
U
10/18
12
W
W
U
10/25
-10
L
L
U
11/01
-6
L
L
U
11/08
3
W
L
O
11/15
21
W
W
U
11/29
-9
L
L
O
12/06
35
W
W
O
12/13
13
W
W
O
12/20
7
W
L
O
BAL logo

Ravens

3-7
SU
3-6-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/11
-3
L
L
O
10/18
-5
L
L
O
10/26
-8
L
W
U
11/01
3
W
L
O
11/15
-2
L
L
U
11/22
3
W
P
U
11/30
6
W
W
O
12/06
-2
L
W
U
12/13
-29
L
L
U
12/20
-20
L
L
O