PITSteelers
9-5
17
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
64°F
9 mph
20
BALRavens
4-10
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
64°F
9 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Steelers
0
3
7
7
17
Ravens
7
6
0
7
20
Spread
+11.5
Total
UNDER
47.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
308
386
Total Plays
57
73
Yards / Play
5.4
5.3
EPA / Play
+0.02
+0.03
Passing Yards
198
265
Comp/Att
24/34(71%)
28/41(68%)
Yards / Pass
5.8
6.5
EPA / Pass
-0.18
+0.21
Rushing Yards
110
121
Rush Attempts
20
31
Yards / Rush
5.5
3.9
EPA / Rush
+0.04
-0.12
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
22
Passing 1st downs
11
16
Rushing 1st downs
6
6
Penalty 1st downs
4
--
3rd Down %
25%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
2
9
3rd Down Attempts
8
18
Red Zone %
67%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-7.63
--
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-22
-9
Sack EPA
-3.79
-1.98
Penalties
3
12
Penalty Yards
--
121
Penalty EPA
--
-13.16
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-10.0
Current
-11.5
Model
-11.5
Win Probability
Market83.2%
Model83.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-259
Home nfelo
1,455
Away nfelo
1,627
Home Field
+53.0
Base HFA
+59.1
Divisional Adj
-26.6
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.6
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-139.5
Home QB Adjustment
-95.6
Away QB Adjustment
+44.0
Market Regression
-36.0
Final Difference
-277.9
Model Spread
+11.5
Quarterbacks
B. Roethlisberger
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+44.0
R. Mallett
Proj. Value
-2.9
Team Elo Adj
-95.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Steelers Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
24
Yards / Game
3
10
Passing Yards / Game
13
16
Rushing Yards / Game
14
12
EPA
EPA / Play
9
21
EPA / Pass
12
24
EPA / Rush
7
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
30
Interceptions / Game
29
32
Fumbles / Game
7
15
Turnover EPA / Game
16
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
20
4th Down Efficiency
29
11
RZ Efficiency
13
11
Ravens Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
9
Yards / Game
14
19
Passing Yards / Game
25
30
Rushing Yards / Game
26
5
EPA
EPA / Play
22
9
EPA / Pass
23
13
EPA / Rush
26
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
18
Interceptions / Game
31
8
Fumbles / Game
3
2
Turnover EPA / Game
8
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
15
4th Down Efficiency
15
4
RZ Efficiency
24
6
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Steelers
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Ravens
3-7
SU
3-6-1
ATS
5-5
O/U