PITSteelers
9-7
17
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
38°F
15 mph
10
BALRavens
13-3
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
38°F
15 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Steelers
7
0
0
10
17
Ravens
0
7
0
3
10
Spread
-3
Total
UNDER
34
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
289
224
Total Plays
62
57
Yards / Play
4.7
3.9
EPA / Play
-0.11
-0.30
Passing Yards
134
118
Comp/Att
18/20(90%)
15/28(54%)
Yards / Pass
6.7
4.2
EPA / Pass
-0.12
-0.17
Rushing Yards
155
106
Rush Attempts
39
25
Yards / Rush
4.0
4.2
EPA / Rush
-0.07
-0.46
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
13
Passing 1st downs
8
9
Rushing 1st downs
8
4
Penalty 1st downs
--
--
3rd Down %
40%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
6
4
3rd Down Attempts
15
13
Red Zone %
50%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
2
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
2
2
Turnover EPA
-6.14
-10.09
Sacks
3
4
Sack Yards
-18
-28
Sack EPA
-4.61
-5.11
Penalties
4
3
Penalty Yards
25
26
Penalty EPA
-2.36
-1.35
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
+3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
+0.5
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model48.6%
Spread Pick
Ravens+3.0
Expected Value
+9.1%
Cover Probability
53.9%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+136
Home nfelo
1,688
Away nfelo
1,489
Home Field
+25.3
Base HFA
+46.0
Divisional Adj
-20.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-88.1
Home QB Adjustment
-77.1
Away QB Adjustment
+11.0
Market Regression
-89.4
Final Difference
9.8
Model Spread
-0.5
Quarterbacks
B. Rudolph
Proj. Value
-1.6
Team Elo Adj
+11.0
T. Huntley
Proj. Value
-2.0
Team Elo Adj
-77.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Steelers Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
1
Yards / Game
25
4
Passing Yards / Game
26
15
Rushing Yards / Game
11
12
EPA
EPA / Play
25
2
EPA / Pass
24
2
EPA / Rush
20
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
13
Interceptions / Game
5
10
Fumbles / Game
8
20
Turnover EPA / Game
27
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
9
4th Down Efficiency
25
1
RZ Efficiency
25
2
Ravens Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
8
Yards / Game
6
21
Passing Yards / Game
20
23
Rushing Yards / Game
1
21
EPA
EPA / Play
6
10
EPA / Pass
9
10
EPA / Rush
4
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
25
Interceptions / Game
1
13
Fumbles / Game
30
5
Turnover EPA / Game
18
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
21
4th Down Efficiency
2
11
RZ Efficiency
7
6
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Steelers
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Ravens
9-1
SU
7-3
ATS
7-3
O/U