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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. steelers @ ravens week 18, 2023

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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PIT logo
PITSteelers
9-7
17
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
38°F
15 mph
10
BALRavens
13-3
BAL logo
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
38°F
15 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Steelers
7
0
0
10
17
Ravens
0
7
0
3
10

Spread

PIT logo
-3

Total

UNDER
34

Game Statistics

General
Steelers logo
Ravens logo
Total Yards
289
224
Total Plays
62
57
Yards / Play
4.7
3.9
EPA / Play
-0.11
-0.30
Passing Yards
134
118
Comp/Att
18/20(90%)
15/28(54%)
Yards / Pass
6.7
4.2
EPA / Pass
-0.12
-0.17
Rushing Yards
155
106
Rush Attempts
39
25
Yards / Rush
4.0
4.2
EPA / Rush
-0.07
-0.46
Downs & Conversions
Steelers logo
Ravens logo
1st Downs
16
13
Passing 1st downs
8
9
Rushing 1st downs
8
4
Penalty 1st downs
--
--
3rd Down %
40%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
6
4
3rd Down Attempts
15
13
Red Zone %
50%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
2
1
Negative Plays
Steelers logo
Ravens logo
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
2
2
Turnover EPA
-6.14
-10.09
Sacks
3
4
Sack Yards
-18
-28
Sack EPA
-4.61
-5.11
Penalties
4
3
Penalty Yards
25
26
Penalty EPA
-2.36
-1.35

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
PIT logo
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
+3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
+1.0

Win Probability

Market59.7%
Model48.1%
Spread Pick
BAL logo
Ravens+3.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+9.7%
Cover Probability
54.2%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+131
Home nfelo
1,681
Away nfelo
1,488
Home Field
+25.3
Base HFA
+46.0
Divisional Adj
-20.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-88.1
Home QB Adjustment
-77.1
Away QB Adjustment
+11.0
Market Regression
-77.3
Final Difference
13.1
Model Spread
-1.0

Quarterbacks

B. Rudolph headshot

B. Rudolph

Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+11.0
Value
Ptile
10/06
-2.1
37
10/28
-3.4
28
11/03
-1.0
47
11/10
-2.2
37
11/14
-12.1
2
11/24
-11.8
2
01/03
0.2
47
11/14
-0.4
49
12/23
3.7
74
12/31
1.2
57
T. Huntley headshot

T. Huntley

Proj. Value
-1.1
Team Elo Adj
-77.1
Value
Ptile
11/21
-5.1
19
12/19
11.5
98
01/02
-3.7
26
01/09
-5.8
15
12/11
-3.3
26
12/17
-7.4
8
12/24
-3.4
26
01/01
-1.8
40
01/15
2.4
72

Team Matchup Ranks

Steelers Offense vs Ravens Defense
Steelers logo
Ravens logo

Total

Points / Game
28
1
Yards / Game
25
4
Passing Yards / Game
26
15
Rushing Yards / Game
11
12

EPA

EPA / Play
25
2
EPA / Pass
24
2
EPA / Rush
20
11

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
21
13
Interceptions / Game
5
10
Fumbles / Game
8
20
Turnover EPA / Game
27
22

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
21
9
4th Down Efficiency
25
1
RZ Efficiency
25
2
Ravens Offense vs Steelers Defense
Ravens logo
Steelers logo

Total

Points / Game
4
8
Yards / Game
6
21
Passing Yards / Game
20
23
Rushing Yards / Game
1
21

EPA

EPA / Play
6
10
EPA / Pass
9
10
EPA / Rush
4
18

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
32
25
Interceptions / Game
1
13
Fumbles / Game
30
5
Turnover EPA / Game
18
25

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
11
21
4th Down Efficiency
2
11
RZ Efficiency
7
6

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

PIT logo

Steelers

5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/29
-10
L
L
U
11/02
4
W
W
U
11/12
4
W
W
O
11/19
-3
L
L
U
11/26
6
W
W
U
12/03
-14
L
L
U
12/07
-3
L
L
O
12/16
-17
L
L
O
12/23
23
W
W
O
12/31
7
W
W
O
BAL logo

Ravens

9-1
SU
7-3
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/22
32
W
W
O
10/29
7
W
L
O
11/05
34
W
W
U
11/12
-2
L
L
O
11/16
14
W
W
O
11/26
10
W
W
U
12/10
6
W
L
O
12/17
16
W
W
U
12/25
14
W
W
O
12/31
37
W
W
O