PITSteelers
6-4
30
TBD
Lumen Field
38°F
2 mph
39
SEASeahawks
5-5
TBD
Lumen Field
38°F
2 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Steelers
3
15
3
9
30
Seahawks
0
14
6
19
39
Spread
-3
Total
OVER
46.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
540
436
Total Plays
77
61
Yards / Play
7.0
7.1
EPA / Play
+0.13
+0.28
Passing Yards
482
336
Comp/Att
37/61(61%)
21/31(68%)
Yards / Pass
7.9
10.8
EPA / Pass
+0.04
+0.66
Rushing Yards
58
100
Rush Attempts
14
28
Yards / Rush
4.1
3.6
EPA / Rush
+0.32
-0.16
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
26
21
Passing 1st downs
18
15
Rushing 1st downs
6
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
45%
54%
3rd Down Conversions
5
7
3rd Down Attempts
11
13
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
4
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
4
0
Interceptions
4
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-17.86
--
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-10
-9
Sack EPA
-2.93
-2.81
Penalties
6
8
Penalty Yards
65
76
Penalty EPA
-4.83
-10.42
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SEASeahawksFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+73
Home nfelo
1,619
Away nfelo
1,568
Home Field
+57.0
Base HFA
+61.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-47.7
Surface Adj
+21.4
Time Adj
+21.9
Net QB Adjustment
-34.7
Home QB Adjustment
+0.6
Away QB Adjustment
+35.3
Market Regression
-39.9
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
B. Roethlisberger
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+35.3
R. Wilson
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+0.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Steelers Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
3
Yards / Game
3
1
Passing Yards / Game
13
6
Rushing Yards / Game
14
3
EPA
EPA / Play
9
8
EPA / Pass
12
6
EPA / Rush
7
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
5
Interceptions / Game
29
19
Fumbles / Game
7
14
Turnover EPA / Game
16
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
7
4th Down Efficiency
29
2
RZ Efficiency
13
3
Seahawks Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
9
Yards / Game
8
19
Passing Yards / Game
18
30
Rushing Yards / Game
3
5
EPA
EPA / Play
3
9
EPA / Pass
1
13
EPA / Rush
12
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
18
Interceptions / Game
7
8
Fumbles / Game
5
2
Turnover EPA / Game
27
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
15
4th Down Efficiency
1
4
RZ Efficiency
15
6
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Steelers
6-4
SU
6-3-1
ATS
2-8
O/U
Seahawks
5-5
SU
3-6-1
ATS
5-5
O/U