PITSteelers
6-4
27
TBD
Nissan Stadium
25°F
9 mph
24
TENTitans
2-7
TBD
Nissan Stadium
25°F
9 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Steelers
7
0
0
14
21
Titans
7
10
7
0
24
Spread
+7
Total
OVER
46.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
386
312
Total Plays
73
39
Yards / Play
5.3
8.0
EPA / Play
+0.15
+0.12
Passing Yards
180
--
Comp/Att
21/32(66%)
15/24(63%)
Yards / Pass
5.6
--
EPA / Pass
+0.14
+0.19
Rushing Yards
206
49
Rush Attempts
36
15
Yards / Rush
5.7
3.3
EPA / Rush
+0.14
-0.07
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
29
14
Passing 1st downs
14
10
Rushing 1st downs
15
3
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
54%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
7
3
3rd Down Attempts
13
8
Red Zone %
50%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-3.65
-7.99
Sacks
5
--
Sack Yards
-27
--
Sack EPA
-5.70
--
Penalties
4
1
Penalty Yards
39
--
Penalty EPA
-3.65
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-5.0
Current
-7.0
Model
-6.0
Win Probability
Market73.2%
Model69.3%
Spread Pick
Titans+7.0
Expected Value
+6.2%
Cover Probability
51.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-106
Home nfelo
1,416
Away nfelo
1,508
Home Field
+73.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-87.3
Home QB Adjustment
-57.8
Away QB Adjustment
+29.5
Market Regression
-14.8
Final Difference
-141.7
Model Spread
+6.0
Quarterbacks
B. Roethlisberger
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+29.5
Z. Mettenberger
Proj. Value
-4.9
Team Elo Adj
-57.8
Value
Ptile
Team Matchup Ranks
Steelers Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
29
Yards / Game
2
27
Passing Yards / Game
6
2
Rushing Yards / Game
17
31
EPA
EPA / Play
4
30
EPA / Pass
3
26
EPA / Rush
19
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
7
6
Interceptions / Game
7
22
Fumbles / Game
21
30
Turnover EPA / Game
21
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
19
4th Down Efficiency
10
14
RZ Efficiency
20
24
Titans Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
21
Yards / Game
29
17
Passing Yards / Game
16
22
Rushing Yards / Game
26
6
EPA
EPA / Play
30
27
EPA / Pass
30
25
EPA / Rush
17
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
17
Interceptions / Game
19
26
Fumbles / Game
13
14
Turnover EPA / Game
13
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
9
4th Down Efficiency
28
32
RZ Efficiency
26
19
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Steelers
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Titans
3-7
SU
2-7-1
ATS
3-7
O/U