HOUTexans
2-2
3
TBD
Candlestick Park
76°F
9 mph
34
SF49ers
2-2
TBD
Candlestick Park
76°F
9 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Texans
0
0
3
0
3
49ers
8
7
3
10
28
Spread
-4
Total
UNDER
43
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
313
284
Total Plays
71
52
Yards / Play
4.4
5.5
EPA / Play
-0.34
+0.12
Passing Yards
182
107
Comp/Att
22/40(55%)
6/15(40%)
Yards / Pass
4.5
7.1
EPA / Pass
-0.36
+0.23
Rushing Yards
131
177
Rush Attempts
30
36
Yards / Rush
4.4
4.9
EPA / Rush
-0.22
-0.04
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
17
Passing 1st downs
9
5
Rushing 1st downs
7
11
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
38%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
6
4
3rd Down Attempts
16
11
Red Zone %
0%
40%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
1
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
4
0
Interceptions
3
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-20.12
--
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-6
-6
Sack EPA
-1.56
-2.09
Penalties
7
3
Penalty Yards
52
17
Penalty EPA
-11.32
-3.33
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SF49ersFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-4.0
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market64.7%
Model64.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+118
Home nfelo
1,590
Away nfelo
1,549
Home Field
+84.9
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+22.4
Net QB Adjustment
-8.2
Home QB Adjustment
-5.1
Away QB Adjustment
+3.1
Market Regression
-42.6
Final Difference
105.3
Model Spread
-4.0
Quarterbacks
M. Schaub
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+3.1
C. Kaepernick
Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
-5.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Texans Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
31
3
Yards / Game
13
5
Passing Yards / Game
6
15
Rushing Yards / Game
20
4
EPA
EPA / Play
30
4
EPA / Pass
29
7
EPA / Rush
22
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
22
Interceptions / Game
28
13
Fumbles / Game
13
26
Turnover EPA / Game
3
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
10
4th Down Efficiency
26
13
RZ Efficiency
26
6
49ers Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
25
Yards / Game
24
6
Passing Yards / Game
26
10
Rushing Yards / Game
3
23
EPA
EPA / Play
11
19
EPA / Pass
7
28
EPA / Rush
17
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
17
Interceptions / Game
4
32
Fumbles / Game
26
31
Turnover EPA / Game
31
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
7
4th Down Efficiency
5
8
RZ Efficiency
16
32
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Texans
4-6
SU
2-8
ATS
5-5
O/U
49ers
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
8-2
O/U