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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. texans @ bengals week 2, 2017

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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HOU logo
HOUTexans
0-1
13
TBD
Paycor Stadium
69°F
2 mph
9
CINBengals
0-1
CIN logo
TBD
Paycor Stadium
69°F
2 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Texans
3
7
0
3
13
Bengals
0
6
3
0
9

Spread

HOU logo
+5.5

Total

UNDER
38

Game Statistics

General
Texans logo
Bengals logo
Total Yards
266
295
Total Plays
62
62
Yards / Play
4.3
4.8
EPA / Play
-0.16
-0.26
Passing Yards
98
213
Comp/Att
15/24(63%)
20/35(57%)
Yards / Pass
4.1
6.1
EPA / Pass
-0.20
-0.27
Rushing Yards
168
82
Rush Attempts
35
24
Yards / Rush
4.8
3.4
EPA / Rush
-0.11
-0.41
Downs & Conversions
Texans logo
Bengals logo
1st Downs
14
12
Passing 1st downs
6
8
Rushing 1st downs
6
4
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
27%
27%
3rd Down Conversions
4
4
3rd Down Attempts
15
15
Red Zone %
0%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
--
--
Red Zone Attempts
1
3
Negative Plays
Texans logo
Bengals logo
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-7.21
Sacks
3
3
Sack Yards
-27
-11
Sack EPA
-5.31
-4.80
Penalties
9
7
Penalty Yards
61
45
Penalty EPA
-9.02
-6.00

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
CIN logo
CINBengalsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-5.5
Model
-3.5

Win Probability

Market68.0%
Model62.2%
Spread Pick
HOU logo
Texans+5.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+5.0%
Cover Probability
55.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+37
Home nfelo
1,491
Away nfelo
1,429
Home Field
+47.8
Base HFA
+58.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-10.4
Net QB Adjustment
-72.1
Home QB Adjustment
-19.6
Away QB Adjustment
+52.6
Market Regression
+20.9
Final Difference
86.3
Model Spread
-3.5

Quarterbacks

D. Watson headshot

D. Watson

Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
+52.6
No recent game data available
A. Dalton headshot

A. Dalton

Proj. Value
-2.0
Team Elo Adj
-19.6
Value
Ptile
10/30
1.8
63
11/14
-4.0
20
11/20
-2.4
30
11/27
-1.3
39
12/04
7.9
92
12/11
-1.1
40
12/18
-2.4
31
12/24
-0.7
43
01/01
0.3
51
09/10
-15.7
0

Team Matchup Ranks

Texans Offense vs Bengals Defense
Texans logo
Bengals logo

Total

Points / Game
17
17
Yards / Game
20
18
Passing Yards / Game
12
8
Rushing Yards / Game
13
30

EPA

EPA / Play
21
14
EPA / Pass
25
10
EPA / Rush
12
25

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
10
13
Interceptions / Game
27
18
Fumbles / Game
28
28
Turnover EPA / Game
4
12

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
22
24
4th Down Efficiency
13
16
RZ Efficiency
20
5
Bengals Offense vs Texans Defense
Bengals logo
Texans logo

Total

Points / Game
25
32
Yards / Game
32
20
Passing Yards / Game
18
22
Rushing Yards / Game
31
12

EPA

EPA / Play
26
30
EPA / Pass
21
25
EPA / Rush
28
16

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
21
2
Interceptions / Game
13
18
Fumbles / Game
21
31
Turnover EPA / Game
12
10

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
29
5
4th Down Efficiency
21
27
RZ Efficiency
11
27

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

HOU logo

Texans

4-6
SU
2-8
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/21
-7
L
L
O
11/27
-8
L
L
U
12/04
-8
L
L
U
12/11
5
W
W
U
12/18
1
W
L
O
12/24
2
W
L
U
01/01
-7
L
L
U
01/07
13
W
W
O
01/14
-18
L
L
O
09/10
-22
L
L
U
CIN logo

Bengals

3-6-1
SU
4-6
ATS
2-8
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/30
0
T
L
O
11/14
-1
L
L
U
11/20
-4
L
L
U
11/27
-5
L
L
U
12/04
18
W
W
O
12/11
13
W
W
U
12/18
-4
L
L
U
12/24
-2
L
W
U
01/01
17
W
W
U
09/10
-20
L
L
U