HOUTexans
0-1
13
TBD
Paycor Stadium
69°F
2 mph
9
CINBengals
0-1
TBD
Paycor Stadium
69°F
2 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Texans
3
7
0
3
13
Bengals
0
6
3
0
9
Spread
+5.5
Total
UNDER
38
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
266
295
Total Plays
62
62
Yards / Play
4.3
4.8
EPA / Play
-0.16
-0.26
Passing Yards
98
213
Comp/Att
15/24(63%)
20/35(57%)
Yards / Pass
4.1
6.1
EPA / Pass
-0.20
-0.27
Rushing Yards
168
82
Rush Attempts
35
24
Yards / Rush
4.8
3.4
EPA / Rush
-0.11
-0.41
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
14
12
Passing 1st downs
6
8
Rushing 1st downs
6
4
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
27%
27%
3rd Down Conversions
4
4
3rd Down Attempts
15
15
Red Zone %
0%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
--
--
Red Zone Attempts
1
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-7.21
Sacks
3
3
Sack Yards
-27
-11
Sack EPA
-5.31
-4.80
Penalties
9
7
Penalty Yards
61
45
Penalty EPA
-9.02
-6.00
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CINBengalsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-5.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market68.0%
Model62.1%
Spread Pick
Texans+5.5
Expected Value
+5.0%
Cover Probability
55.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+36
Home nfelo
1,492
Away nfelo
1,430
Home Field
+47.2
Base HFA
+57.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-10.3
Net QB Adjustment
-72.1
Home QB Adjustment
-19.6
Away QB Adjustment
+52.6
Market Regression
+20.5
Final Difference
85.8
Model Spread
-3.5
Quarterbacks
D. Watson
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+52.6
No recent game data available
A. Dalton
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
-19.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Texans Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
17
17
Yards / Game
20
18
Passing Yards / Game
12
8
Rushing Yards / Game
13
30
EPA
EPA / Play
21
14
EPA / Pass
25
10
EPA / Rush
12
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
10
13
Interceptions / Game
27
18
Fumbles / Game
28
28
Turnover EPA / Game
4
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
24
4th Down Efficiency
13
16
RZ Efficiency
20
5
Bengals Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
32
Yards / Game
32
20
Passing Yards / Game
18
22
Rushing Yards / Game
31
12
EPA
EPA / Play
26
30
EPA / Pass
21
25
EPA / Rush
28
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
2
Interceptions / Game
13
18
Fumbles / Game
21
31
Turnover EPA / Game
12
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
5
4th Down Efficiency
21
27
RZ Efficiency
11
27
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Texans
4-6
SU
2-8
ATS
4-6
O/U
Bengals
3-6-1
SU
4-6
ATS
2-8
O/U