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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. texans @ bengals week 6, 2009

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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HOU logo
HOUTexans
2-3
28
TBD
Paycor Stadium
49°F
2 mph
17
CINBengals
4-1
CIN logo
TBD
Paycor Stadium
49°F
2 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Texans
7
7
14
0
28
Bengals
0
17
0
0
17

Spread

HOU logo
+4

Total

UNDER
46

Game Statistics

General
Texans logo
Bengals logo
Total Yards
472
296
Total Plays
73
53
Yards / Play
6.5
5.6
EPA / Play
+0.11
-0.12
Passing Yards
385
250
Comp/Att
28/40(70%)
23/35(66%)
Yards / Pass
9.6
7.1
EPA / Pass
+0.59
-0.21
Rushing Yards
87
46
Rush Attempts
31
17
Yards / Rush
2.8
2.7
EPA / Rush
-0.28
-0.12
Downs & Conversions
Texans logo
Bengals logo
1st Downs
26
14
Passing 1st downs
21
9
Rushing 1st downs
5
3
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
50%
42%
3rd Down Conversions
7
5
3rd Down Attempts
14
12
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Texans logo
Bengals logo
Turnovers
2
3
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
1
2
Turnover EPA
-6.22
-12.59
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-7
-9
Sack EPA
-2.30
-2.48
Penalties
7
4
Penalty Yards
60
--
Penalty EPA
-5.72
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
CIN logo
CINBengalsFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-4.0
Model
-4.0

Win Probability

Market64.7%
Model64.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+68
Home nfelo
1,480
Away nfelo
1,496
Home Field
+95.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-12.5
Home QB Adjustment
+4.7
Away QB Adjustment
+17.2
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
105.3
Model Spread
-4.0

Quarterbacks

M. Schaub headshot

M. Schaub

Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+17.2
Value
Ptile
11/02
-5.4
13
12/07
8.2
95
12/14
2.2
67
12/21
-3.5
25
12/28
8.8
95
09/13
-5.1
20
09/20
11.7
99
09/27
5.5
84
10/04
-5.0
21
10/11
8.0
92
C. Palmer headshot

C. Palmer

Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+4.7
Value
Ptile
12/30
8.3
93
09/07
-7.9
6
09/14
-5.3
13
09/21
1.9
65
10/05
0.1
53
09/13
-4.9
21
09/20
1.9
63
09/27
-0.8
45
10/04
-0.3
47
10/11
1.9
63

Team Matchup Ranks

Texans Offense vs Bengals Defense
Texans logo
Bengals logo

Total

Points / Game
10
5
Yards / Game
5
5
Passing Yards / Game
10
12
Rushing Yards / Game
30
8

EPA

EPA / Play
9
7
EPA / Pass
6
10
EPA / Rush
29
14

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
5
22
Interceptions / Game
18
11
Fumbles / Game
25
32
Turnover EPA / Game
10
9

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
15
13
4th Down Efficiency
4
12
RZ Efficiency
12
9
Bengals Offense vs Texans Defense
Bengals logo
Texans logo

Total

Points / Game
22
16
Yards / Game
24
14
Passing Yards / Game
21
16
Rushing Yards / Game
7
10

EPA

EPA / Play
19
16
EPA / Pass
16
11
EPA / Rush
12
13

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
13
27
Interceptions / Game
8
21
Fumbles / Game
21
20
Turnover EPA / Game
17
19

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
14
20
4th Down Efficiency
4
7
RZ Efficiency
21
30

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

HOU logo

Texans

6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
2-3-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/01
13
W
W
P
12/07
3
W
W
P
12/14
1
W
W
P
12/21
-11
L
L
P
12/28
7
W
W
P
09/13
-17
L
L
U
09/20
3
W
W
O
09/27
-7
L
L
O
10/04
23
W
W
U
10/11
-7
L
L
U
CIN logo

Bengals

7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
3-2-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/30
-31
L
L
P
12/07
-32
L
L
P
12/14
7
W
W
P
12/21
14
W
W
P
12/28
10
W
W
P
09/13
-5
L
L
U
09/20
7
W
W
O
09/27
3
W
W
O
10/04
3
W
L
O
10/11
3
W
W
U