HOUTexans
2-3
28
TBD
Paycor Stadium
49°F
2 mph
17
CINBengals
4-1
TBD
Paycor Stadium
49°F
2 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Texans
7
7
14
0
28
Bengals
0
17
0
0
17
Spread
+4
Total
UNDER
46
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
472
296
Total Plays
73
53
Yards / Play
6.5
5.6
EPA / Play
+0.11
-0.12
Passing Yards
385
250
Comp/Att
28/40(70%)
23/35(66%)
Yards / Pass
9.6
7.1
EPA / Pass
+0.59
-0.21
Rushing Yards
87
46
Rush Attempts
31
17
Yards / Rush
2.8
2.7
EPA / Rush
-0.28
-0.12
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
26
14
Passing 1st downs
21
9
Rushing 1st downs
5
3
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
50%
42%
3rd Down Conversions
7
5
3rd Down Attempts
14
12
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
3
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
1
2
Turnover EPA
-6.22
-12.59
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-7
-9
Sack EPA
-2.30
-2.48
Penalties
7
4
Penalty Yards
60
--
Penalty EPA
-5.72
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CINBengalsFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-4.0
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market64.7%
Model64.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+67
Home nfelo
1,481
Away nfelo
1,497
Home Field
+95.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-12.5
Home QB Adjustment
+4.7
Away QB Adjustment
+17.2
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
105.3
Model Spread
-4.0
Quarterbacks
M. Schaub
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+17.2
C. Palmer
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+4.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Texans Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
5
Yards / Game
5
5
Passing Yards / Game
10
12
Rushing Yards / Game
30
8
EPA
EPA / Play
9
7
EPA / Pass
6
10
EPA / Rush
29
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
22
Interceptions / Game
18
11
Fumbles / Game
25
32
Turnover EPA / Game
10
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
13
4th Down Efficiency
4
12
RZ Efficiency
12
9
Bengals Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
16
Yards / Game
24
14
Passing Yards / Game
21
16
Rushing Yards / Game
7
10
EPA
EPA / Play
19
16
EPA / Pass
16
11
EPA / Rush
12
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
13
27
Interceptions / Game
8
21
Fumbles / Game
21
20
Turnover EPA / Game
17
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
20
4th Down Efficiency
4
7
RZ Efficiency
21
30
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Texans
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
2-3-5
O/U
Bengals
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
3-2-5
O/U