HOUTexans
3-5
10
TBD
Paycor Stadium
53°F
4 mph
6
CINBengals
8-0
TBD
Paycor Stadium
53°F
4 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Texans
0
3
0
7
10
Bengals
3
3
0
0
6
Spread
+10
Total
UNDER
46.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
256
256
Total Plays
61
62
Yards / Play
4.2
4.1
EPA / Play
-0.11
-0.19
Passing Yards
174
182
Comp/Att
17/33(52%)
22/38(58%)
Yards / Pass
5.3
4.8
EPA / Pass
+0.03
-0.26
Rushing Yards
82
74
Rush Attempts
25
20
Yards / Rush
3.3
3.7
EPA / Rush
-0.29
-0.06
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
16
Passing 1st downs
10
9
Rushing 1st downs
4
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
33%
29%
3rd Down Conversions
5
4
3rd Down Attempts
15
14
Red Zone %
0%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
--
--
Red Zone Attempts
1
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-0.07
-2.90
Sacks
3
4
Sack Yards
-18
-15
Sack EPA
-4.46
-4.72
Penalties
5
9
Penalty Yards
54
70
Penalty EPA
-5.48
-10.54
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CINBengalsFavored
Opening
-11.0
Current
-10.0
Model
-10.0
Win Probability
Market79.5%
Model79.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+198
Home nfelo
1,608
Away nfelo
1,437
Home Field
+2.7
Base HFA
+61.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-48.0
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-11.1
Net QB Adjustment
+23.8
Home QB Adjustment
+21.6
Away QB Adjustment
-2.2
Market Regression
-12.3
Final Difference
235.4
Model Spread
-10.0
Quarterbacks
B. Hoyer
Proj. Value
-3.7
Team Elo Adj
-2.2
A. Dalton
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
+21.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Texans Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
2
Yards / Game
20
13
Passing Yards / Game
10
24
Rushing Yards / Game
16
7
EPA
EPA / Play
28
7
EPA / Pass
26
5
EPA / Rush
22
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
23
Interceptions / Game
21
3
Fumbles / Game
20
27
Turnover EPA / Game
17
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
14
4th Down Efficiency
32
16
RZ Efficiency
14
4
Bengals Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
10
Yards / Game
16
3
Passing Yards / Game
30
4
Rushing Yards / Game
13
11
EPA
EPA / Play
6
3
EPA / Pass
2
4
EPA / Rush
23
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
25
17
Interceptions / Game
6
14
Fumbles / Game
25
22
Turnover EPA / Game
25
14
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
1
4th Down Efficiency
4
24
RZ Efficiency
5
19
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Texans
5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
6-3-1
O/U
Bengals
8-2
SU
7-2-1
ATS
5-5
O/U