HOUTexans
4-4
30
TBD
Paycor Stadium
56°F
6 mph
27
CINBengals
5-3
TBD
Paycor Stadium
56°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Texans
0
10
10
10
30
Bengals
7
0
10
10
27
Spread
+5
Total
OVER
46
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
544
380
Total Plays
74
60
Yards / Play
7.4
6.3
EPA / Play
+0.12
+0.07
Passing Yards
356
314
Comp/Att
23/39(59%)
27/40(68%)
Yards / Pass
9.1
7.8
EPA / Pass
+0.13
+0.08
Rushing Yards
188
66
Rush Attempts
34
16
Yards / Rush
5.5
4.1
EPA / Rush
+0.07
-0.20
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
28
20
Passing 1st downs
16
11
Rushing 1st downs
10
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
4
3rd Down %
31%
43%
3rd Down Conversions
4
6
3rd Down Attempts
13
14
Red Zone %
60%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
5
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
2
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-13.59
-9.95
Sacks
1
4
Sack Yards
--
-33
Sack EPA
-3.67
-7.67
Penalties
7
4
Penalty Yards
50
63
Penalty EPA
-8.95
-5.70
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CINBengalsFavored
Opening
-8.0
Current
-5.0
Model
-7.5
Win Probability
Market67.1%
Model73.8%
Spread Pick
Bengals-5.0
Expected Value
+20.7%
Cover Probability
62.7%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+225
Home nfelo
1,611
Away nfelo
1,417
Home Field
+51.6
Base HFA
+43.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+7.8
Net QB Adjustment
-20.6
Home QB Adjustment
+4.6
Away QB Adjustment
+25.3
Market Regression
-17.6
Final Difference
179.8
Model Spread
-7.5
Quarterbacks
C. Stroud
Proj. Value
-1.9
Team Elo Adj
+25.3
J. Burrow
Proj. Value
+4.0
Team Elo Adj
+4.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Texans Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
20
Yards / Game
15
31
Passing Yards / Game
21
30
Rushing Yards / Game
28
26
EPA
EPA / Play
14
26
EPA / Pass
11
25
EPA / Rush
27
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
7
Interceptions / Game
1
5
Fumbles / Game
13
21
Turnover EPA / Game
32
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
23
4th Down Efficiency
31
8
RZ Efficiency
16
10
Bengals Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
11
Yards / Game
23
15
Passing Yards / Game
9
6
Rushing Yards / Game
32
8
EPA
EPA / Play
12
13
EPA / Pass
15
16
EPA / Rush
15
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
15
Interceptions / Game
19
15
Fumbles / Game
1
25
Turnover EPA / Game
25
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
6
4th Down Efficiency
25
18
RZ Efficiency
10
15
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Texans
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Bengals
6-4
SU
5-4-1
ATS
3-7
O/U