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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. texans @ bengals week 10, 2023

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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HOU logo
HOUTexans
4-4
30
TBD
Paycor Stadium
56°F
6 mph
27
CINBengals
5-3
CIN logo
TBD
Paycor Stadium
56°F
6 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Texans
0
10
10
10
30
Bengals
7
0
10
10
27

Spread

HOU logo
+5

Total

OVER
46

Game Statistics

General
Texans logo
Bengals logo
Total Yards
544
380
Total Plays
74
60
Yards / Play
7.4
6.3
EPA / Play
+0.12
+0.07
Passing Yards
356
314
Comp/Att
23/39(59%)
27/40(68%)
Yards / Pass
9.1
7.8
EPA / Pass
+0.13
+0.08
Rushing Yards
188
66
Rush Attempts
34
16
Yards / Rush
5.5
4.1
EPA / Rush
+0.07
-0.20
Downs & Conversions
Texans logo
Bengals logo
1st Downs
28
20
Passing 1st downs
16
11
Rushing 1st downs
10
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
4
3rd Down %
31%
43%
3rd Down Conversions
4
6
3rd Down Attempts
13
14
Red Zone %
60%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
5
3
Negative Plays
Texans logo
Bengals logo
Turnovers
3
2
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-13.59
-9.95
Sacks
1
4
Sack Yards
--
-33
Sack EPA
-3.67
-7.67
Penalties
7
4
Penalty Yards
50
63
Penalty EPA
-8.95
-5.70

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
CIN logo
CINBengalsFavored
Opening
-8.0
Current
-5.0
Model
-7.5

Win Probability

Market67.1%
Model73.8%
Spread Pick
CIN logo
Bengals-5.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+20.7%
Cover Probability
62.7%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+225
Home nfelo
1,612
Away nfelo
1,418
Home Field
+52.1
Base HFA
+44.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+7.9
Net QB Adjustment
-21.5
Home QB Adjustment
+4.8
Away QB Adjustment
+26.3
Market Regression
-17.4
Final Difference
180.0
Model Spread
-7.5

Quarterbacks

C. Stroud headshot

C. Stroud

Proj. Value
-0.5
Team Elo Adj
+26.3
Value
Ptile
09/10
-3.2
28
09/17
0.6
53
09/24
5.2
82
10/01
5.3
83
10/08
0.3
52
10/15
-2.8
30
10/29
-0.5
46
11/05
12.9
99
J. Burrow headshot

J. Burrow

Proj. Value
+2.2
Team Elo Adj
+4.8
Value
Ptile
01/22
6.0
89
01/29
-5.0
17
09/10
-8.0
8
09/17
1.3
58
09/25
-5.0
20
10/01
-4.9
20
10/08
4.6
79
10/15
-1.3
40
10/29
10.2
98
11/05
7.7
92

Team Matchup Ranks

Texans Offense vs Bengals Defense
Texans logo
Bengals logo

Total

Points / Game
13
20
Yards / Game
15
31
Passing Yards / Game
21
30
Rushing Yards / Game
28
26

EPA

EPA / Play
14
26
EPA / Pass
11
25
EPA / Rush
27
28

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
24
7
Interceptions / Game
1
5
Fumbles / Game
13
21
Turnover EPA / Game
32
23

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
20
23
4th Down Efficiency
31
8
RZ Efficiency
16
10
Bengals Offense vs Texans Defense
Bengals logo
Texans logo

Total

Points / Game
16
11
Yards / Game
23
15
Passing Yards / Game
9
6
Rushing Yards / Game
32
8

EPA

EPA / Play
12
13
EPA / Pass
15
16
EPA / Rush
15
9

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
15
15
Interceptions / Game
19
15
Fumbles / Game
1
25
Turnover EPA / Game
25
13

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
19
6
4th Down Efficiency
25
18
RZ Efficiency
10
15

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

HOU logo

Texans

5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/01
-28
L
L
U
01/08
1
W
W
O
09/10
-16
L
L
U
09/17
-11
L
L
O
09/24
20
W
W
O
10/01
24
W
W
U
10/08
-2
L
W
U
10/15
7
W
W
U
10/29
-2
L
L
U
11/05
2
W
L
O
CIN logo

Bengals

6-4
SU
5-4-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/22
17
W
W
U
01/29
-3
L
L
U
09/10
-21
L
L
U
09/17
-3
L
L
O
09/25
3
W
P
U
10/01
-24
L
L
U
10/08
14
W
W
O
10/15
4
W
W
U
10/29
14
W
W
O
11/05
6
W
W
U