HOUTexans
4-3
31
TBD
New Era Field
49°F
5 mph
10
BUFBills
3-4
TBD
New Era Field
49°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Texans
0
6
3
22
31
Bills
7
3
0
0
10
Spread
-3.5
Total
UNDER
42
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
441
204
Total Plays
77
45
Yards / Play
5.7
4.5
EPA / Play
+0.19
-0.24
Passing Yards
255
107
Comp/Att
25/35(71%)
15/23(65%)
Yards / Pass
7.3
4.7
EPA / Pass
-0.00
-0.52
Rushing Yards
186
97
Rush Attempts
40
20
Yards / Rush
4.7
4.8
EPA / Rush
+0.37
-0.14
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
24
9
Passing 1st downs
11
5
Rushing 1st downs
12
4
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
54%
20%
3rd Down Conversions
7
2
3rd Down Attempts
13
10
Red Zone %
60%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
3
--
Red Zone Attempts
5
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
2
Interceptions
2
2
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-12.10
-6.04
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-15
-10
Sack EPA
-3.09
-4.47
Penalties
5
4
Penalty Yards
45
36
Penalty EPA
+2.90
-4.43
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
HOUTexansFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.9%
Model62.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-37
Home nfelo
1,435
Away nfelo
1,507
Home Field
+95.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-60.8
Home QB Adjustment
-35.7
Away QB Adjustment
+25.0
Market Regression
-23.4
Final Difference
-91.7
Model Spread
+3.5
Quarterbacks
M. Schaub
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+25.0
R. Fitzpatrick
Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
-35.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Texans Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
14
Yards / Game
5
19
Passing Yards / Game
10
7
Rushing Yards / Game
30
31
EPA
EPA / Play
9
13
EPA / Pass
6
2
EPA / Rush
29
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
4
Interceptions / Game
18
2
Fumbles / Game
25
30
Turnover EPA / Game
10
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
24
4th Down Efficiency
4
23
RZ Efficiency
12
20
Bills Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
16
Yards / Game
30
14
Passing Yards / Game
27
16
Rushing Yards / Game
15
10
EPA
EPA / Play
28
16
EPA / Pass
27
11
EPA / Rush
17
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
27
Interceptions / Game
24
21
Fumbles / Game
8
20
Turnover EPA / Game
16
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
32
20
4th Down Efficiency
19
7
RZ Efficiency
32
30
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Texans
6-4
SU
5-4-1
ATS
3-4-3
O/U
Bills
4-6
SU
6-4
ATS
3-4-3
O/U