HOUTexans
6-5
21
TBD
New Era Field
47°F
8 mph
30
BUFBills
5-6
TBD
New Era Field
47°F
8 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Texans
6
7
0
8
21
Bills
7
14
0
9
30
Spread
-3
Total
OVER
42
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
403
390
Total Plays
72
58
Yards / Play
5.6
6.7
EPA / Play
-0.03
+0.11
Passing Yards
275
203
Comp/Att
26/43(60%)
11/21(52%)
Yards / Pass
6.4
9.7
EPA / Pass
+0.06
+0.31
Rushing Yards
128
187
Rush Attempts
27
36
Yards / Rush
4.7
5.2
EPA / Rush
+0.13
+0.10
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
15
Passing 1st downs
14
7
Rushing 1st downs
6
8
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
47%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
7
8
3rd Down Attempts
15
16
Red Zone %
100%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
3
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-1.78
--
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-18
-8
Sack EPA
-3.07
-1.60
Penalties
10
5
Penalty Yards
--
42
Penalty EPA
--
-4.08
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+108
Home nfelo
1,527
Away nfelo
1,498
Home Field
+71.5
Base HFA
+60.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+10.8
Net QB Adjustment
+8.1
Home QB Adjustment
+2.4
Away QB Adjustment
-5.7
Market Regression
-23.4
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
B. Hoyer
Proj. Value
-3.7
Team Elo Adj
-5.7
T. Taylor
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
+2.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Texans Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
15
Yards / Game
20
20
Passing Yards / Game
10
22
Rushing Yards / Game
16
16
EPA
EPA / Play
28
16
EPA / Pass
26
15
EPA / Rush
22
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
11
Interceptions / Game
21
6
Fumbles / Game
20
15
Turnover EPA / Game
17
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
23
4th Down Efficiency
32
1
RZ Efficiency
14
17
Bills Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
10
Yards / Game
13
3
Passing Yards / Game
28
4
Rushing Yards / Game
1
11
EPA
EPA / Play
12
3
EPA / Pass
14
4
EPA / Rush
2
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
17
Interceptions / Game
5
14
Fumbles / Game
11
22
Turnover EPA / Game
32
14
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
1
4th Down Efficiency
24
24
RZ Efficiency
26
19
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Texans
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
5-4-1
O/U
Bills
4-6
SU
4-5-1
ATS
6-4
O/U