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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. texans @ broncos week 7, 2016

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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HOU logo
HOUTexans
4-2
9
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
71°F
5 mph
27
DENBroncos
4-2
DEN logo
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
71°F
5 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Texans
6
0
3
0
9
Broncos
0
14
7
6
27

Spread

DEN logo
-8.5

Total

UNDER
40

Game Statistics

General
Texans logo
Broncos logo
Total Yards
271
347
Total Plays
67
60
Yards / Play
4.0
5.8
EPA / Play
-0.27
+0.00
Passing Yards
131
--
Comp/Att
22/41(54%)
14/25(56%)
Yards / Pass
3.2
--
EPA / Pass
-0.43
+0.08
Rushing Yards
140
190
Rush Attempts
25
35
Yards / Rush
5.6
5.4
EPA / Rush
-0.01
+0.11
Downs & Conversions
Texans logo
Broncos logo
1st Downs
14
19
Passing 1st downs
8
8
Rushing 1st downs
5
11
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
39%
27%
3rd Down Conversions
7
3
3rd Down Attempts
18
11
Red Zone %
0%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
--
3
Red Zone Attempts
1
5
Negative Plays
Texans logo
Broncos logo
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-9.40
--
Sacks
1
--
Sack Yards
--
--
Sack EPA
-4.53
--
Penalties
2
7
Penalty Yards
15
83
Penalty EPA
-1.63
-7.29

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
DEN logo
DENBroncosFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-8.5
Model
-8.5

Win Probability

Market76.8%
Model76.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+160
Home nfelo
1,564
Away nfelo
1,485
Home Field
+88.4
Base HFA
+57.9
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.2
Time Adj
+10.3
Net QB Adjustment
-6.5
Home QB Adjustment
-6.9
Away QB Adjustment
-0.4
Market Regression
+22.6
Final Difference
207.9
Model Spread
-8.5

Quarterbacks

B. Osweiler headshot

B. Osweiler

Proj. Value
-2.8
Team Elo Adj
-0.4
Value
Ptile
12/13
-1.0
44
12/20
2.1
66
12/28
2.6
69
01/03
-3.3
26
09/11
-0.5
45
09/18
-3.5
23
09/22
-4.6
16
10/02
1.0
56
10/09
-8.0
5
10/16
0.5
53
T. Siemian headshot

T. Siemian

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-6.9
Value
Ptile
09/08
-2.8
27
09/18
-0.6
44
09/25
7.5
91
10/02
-6.4
10
10/13
-1.0
41

Team Matchup Ranks

Texans Offense vs Broncos Defense
Texans logo
Broncos logo

Total

Points / Game
28
3
Yards / Game
29
4
Passing Yards / Game
28
5
Rushing Yards / Game
7
28

EPA

EPA / Play
31
1
EPA / Pass
29
1
EPA / Rush
26
27

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
9
9
Interceptions / Game
25
14
Fumbles / Game
10
2
Turnover EPA / Game
11
28

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
27
5
4th Down Efficiency
29
8
RZ Efficiency
31
9
Broncos Offense vs Texans Defense
Broncos logo
Texans logo

Total

Points / Game
21
12
Yards / Game
27
1
Passing Yards / Game
19
7
Rushing Yards / Game
27
11

EPA

EPA / Play
25
3
EPA / Pass
23
4
EPA / Rush
30
4

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
29
22
Interceptions / Game
12
13
Fumbles / Game
31
25
Turnover EPA / Game
18
17

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
31
7
4th Down Efficiency
11
3
RZ Efficiency
27
16

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

HOU logo

Texans

7-3
SU
6-3-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/20
6
W
W
U
12/27
28
W
W
O
01/03
24
W
W
U
01/09
-30
L
L
U
09/11
9
W
W
U
09/18
7
W
W
U
09/22
-27
L
L
U
10/02
7
W
W
O
10/09
-18
L
L
O
10/16
3
W
P
O
DEN logo

Broncos

8-2
SU
6-3-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/03
7
W
L
O
01/17
7
W
P
U
01/24
2
W
W
U
02/07
14
W
W
U
09/08
1
W
W
O
09/18
14
W
W
O
09/25
12
W
W
O
10/02
20
W
W
U
10/09
-7
L
L
U
10/13
-8
L
L
U