HOUTexans
4-2
9
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
71°F
5 mph
27
DENBroncos
4-2
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
71°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Texans
6
0
3
0
9
Broncos
0
14
7
6
27
Spread
-8.5
Total
UNDER
40
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
271
347
Total Plays
67
60
Yards / Play
4.0
5.8
EPA / Play
-0.27
+0.00
Passing Yards
131
--
Comp/Att
22/41(54%)
14/25(56%)
Yards / Pass
3.2
--
EPA / Pass
-0.43
+0.08
Rushing Yards
140
190
Rush Attempts
25
35
Yards / Rush
5.6
5.4
EPA / Rush
-0.01
+0.11
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
14
19
Passing 1st downs
8
8
Rushing 1st downs
5
11
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
39%
27%
3rd Down Conversions
7
3
3rd Down Attempts
18
11
Red Zone %
0%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
--
3
Red Zone Attempts
1
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-9.40
--
Sacks
1
--
Sack Yards
--
--
Sack EPA
-4.53
--
Penalties
2
7
Penalty Yards
15
83
Penalty EPA
-1.63
-7.29
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DENBroncosFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-8.5
Model
-8.5
Win Probability
Market76.8%
Model76.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+159
Home nfelo
1,567
Away nfelo
1,488
Home Field
+87.2
Base HFA
+57.1
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+19.9
Time Adj
+10.2
Net QB Adjustment
-6.5
Home QB Adjustment
-6.9
Away QB Adjustment
-0.4
Market Regression
+22.6
Final Difference
207.9
Model Spread
-8.5
Quarterbacks
B. Osweiler
Proj. Value
-2.8
Team Elo Adj
-0.4
T. Siemian
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-6.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Texans Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
3
Yards / Game
29
4
Passing Yards / Game
28
5
Rushing Yards / Game
7
28
EPA
EPA / Play
31
1
EPA / Pass
29
1
EPA / Rush
26
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
9
Interceptions / Game
25
14
Fumbles / Game
10
2
Turnover EPA / Game
11
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
5
4th Down Efficiency
29
8
RZ Efficiency
31
9
Broncos Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
12
Yards / Game
27
1
Passing Yards / Game
19
7
Rushing Yards / Game
27
11
EPA
EPA / Play
25
3
EPA / Pass
23
4
EPA / Rush
30
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
22
Interceptions / Game
12
13
Fumbles / Game
31
25
Turnover EPA / Game
18
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
7
4th Down Efficiency
11
3
RZ Efficiency
27
16
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Texans
7-3
SU
6-3-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Broncos
8-2
SU
6-3-1
ATS
4-6
O/U