HOUTexans
5-9
23
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
50°F
7 mph
24
DENBroncos
3-11
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
50°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Texans
7
10
6
0
23
Broncos
0
0
10
14
24
Spread
+2.5
Total
UNDER
49.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
401
431
Total Plays
55
63
Yards / Play
7.3
6.8
EPA / Play
+0.25
+0.20
Passing Yards
--
305
Comp/Att
23/33(70%)
16/29(55%)
Yards / Pass
--
10.5
EPA / Pass
+0.32
+0.38
Rushing Yards
91
126
Rush Attempts
22
33
Yards / Rush
4.1
3.8
EPA / Rush
-0.07
-0.01
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
25
Passing 1st downs
15
13
Rushing 1st downs
5
10
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
13%
45%
3rd Down Conversions
1
5
3rd Down Attempts
8
11
Red Zone %
67%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-1.94
-5.17
Sacks
--
1
Sack Yards
--
-3
Sack EPA
--
-0.67
Penalties
3
4
Penalty Yards
24
27
Penalty EPA
-3.87
-3.74
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
HOUTexansFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.6%
Model56.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-80
Home nfelo
1,343
Away nfelo
1,482
Home Field
+73.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-16.1
Home QB Adjustment
-15.6
Away QB Adjustment
+0.5
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-46.1
Model Spread
+2.5
Quarterbacks
M. Schaub
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+0.5
T. Tebow
Proj. Value
-1.4
Team Elo Adj
-15.6
Value
Ptile
Team Matchup Ranks
Texans Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
32
Yards / Game
3
32
Passing Yards / Game
13
4
Rushing Yards / Game
7
31
EPA
EPA / Play
2
31
EPA / Pass
5
30
EPA / Rush
4
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
10
Interceptions / Game
7
31
Fumbles / Game
3
22
Turnover EPA / Game
29
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
16
4th Down Efficiency
14
27
RZ Efficiency
5
26
Broncos Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
19
29
Yards / Game
11
29
Passing Yards / Game
5
30
Rushing Yards / Game
26
14
EPA
EPA / Play
17
32
EPA / Pass
12
32
EPA / Rush
30
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
21
Interceptions / Game
7
23
Fumbles / Game
26
32
Turnover EPA / Game
16
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
20
4th Down Efficiency
30
32
RZ Efficiency
13
31
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Texans
2-8
SU
2-8
ATS
7-3
O/U
Broncos
1-9
SU
2-8
ATS
7-3
O/U