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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. texans @ browns week 10, 2020

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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HOU logo
HOUTexans
2-6
7
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
59°F
25 mph
10
CLEBrowns
5-3
CLE logo
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
59°F
25 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Texans
0
0
0
7
7
Browns
3
0
0
7
10

Spread

HOU logo
+4.5

Total

UNDER
46

Game Statistics

General
Texans logo
Browns logo
Total Yards
243
356
Total Plays
54
62
Yards / Play
4.5
5.7
EPA / Play
-0.11
-0.05
Passing Yards
153
125
Comp/Att
20/30(67%)
12/20(60%)
Yards / Pass
5.1
6.3
EPA / Pass
+0.02
-0.16
Rushing Yards
90
231
Rush Attempts
22
41
Yards / Rush
4.1
5.6
EPA / Rush
+0.00
+0.01
Downs & Conversions
Texans logo
Browns logo
1st Downs
16
20
Passing 1st downs
7
5
Rushing 1st downs
8
13
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
50%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
7
6
3rd Down Attempts
14
12
Red Zone %
50%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Texans logo
Browns logo
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-10
-7
Sack EPA
-3.45
-1.76
Penalties
6
6
Penalty Yards
49
63
Penalty EPA
-5.61
-5.68

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
CLE logo
CLEBrownsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-4.5
Model
-4.0

Win Probability

Market66.1%
Model64.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+51
Home nfelo
1,511
Away nfelo
1,449
Home Field
+9.2
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+1.8
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+1.1
Net QB Adjustment
-20.2
Home QB Adjustment
-1.3
Away QB Adjustment
+18.9
Market Regression
+60.2
Final Difference
102.8
Model Spread
-4.0

Quarterbacks

D. Watson headshot

D. Watson

Proj. Value
-2.4
Team Elo Adj
+18.9
Value
Ptile
01/04
2.9
72
01/12
6.7
89
09/10
-0.0
46
09/20
-0.1
45
09/27
-0.3
44
10/04
1.8
57
10/11
5.4
80
10/18
9.9
96
10/25
6.5
86
11/08
2.5
63
B. Mayfield headshot

B. Mayfield

Proj. Value
+0.1
Team Elo Adj
-1.3
Value
Ptile
12/22
1.3
63
12/29
-8.4
8
09/13
-4.0
19
09/17
1.2
52
09/27
-1.2
35
10/04
-1.3
35
10/11
-0.8
39
10/18
-7.0
8
10/25
8.6
93
11/01
-5.3
14

Team Matchup Ranks

Texans Offense vs Browns Defense
Texans logo
Browns logo

Total

Points / Game
18
22
Yards / Game
11
21
Passing Yards / Game
3
24
Rushing Yards / Game
31
9

EPA

EPA / Play
10
22
EPA / Pass
6
23
EPA / Rush
23
18

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
16
28
Interceptions / Game
2
10
Fumbles / Game
20
8
Turnover EPA / Game
27
30

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
12
25
4th Down Efficiency
18
32
RZ Efficiency
25
16
Browns Offense vs Texans Defense
Browns logo
Texans logo

Total

Points / Game
13
27
Yards / Game
16
30
Passing Yards / Game
32
20
Rushing Yards / Game
4
32

EPA

EPA / Play
8
31
EPA / Pass
8
31
EPA / Rush
10
30

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
17
2
Interceptions / Game
4
32
Fumbles / Game
18
18
Turnover EPA / Game
23
1

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
8
29
4th Down Efficiency
27
14
RZ Efficiency
4
24

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

HOU logo

Texans

3-7
SU
2-8
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/04
3
W
W
U
01/12
-20
L
L
O
09/10
-14
L
L
O
09/20
-17
L
L
U
09/27
-7
L
L
O
10/04
-8
L
L
O
10/11
16
W
W
U
10/18
-6
L
L
O
10/25
-15
L
L
U
11/08
2
W
L
O
CLE logo

Browns

5-5
SU
3-7
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/22
-16
L
L
U
12/29
-10
L
L
O
09/13
-32
L
L
U
09/17
5
W
L
O
09/27
14
W
W
O
10/04
11
W
W
O
10/11
9
W
W
O
10/18
-31
L
L
U
10/25
3
W
L
O
11/01
-10
L
L
U