HOUTexans
2-6
7
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
59°F
25 mph
10
CLEBrowns
5-3
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
59°F
25 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Texans
0
0
0
7
7
Browns
3
0
0
7
10
Spread
+4.5
Total
UNDER
46
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
243
356
Total Plays
54
62
Yards / Play
4.5
5.7
EPA / Play
-0.11
-0.05
Passing Yards
153
125
Comp/Att
20/30(67%)
12/20(60%)
Yards / Pass
5.1
6.3
EPA / Pass
+0.02
-0.16
Rushing Yards
90
231
Rush Attempts
22
41
Yards / Rush
4.1
5.6
EPA / Rush
+0.00
+0.01
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
20
Passing 1st downs
7
5
Rushing 1st downs
8
13
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
50%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
7
6
3rd Down Attempts
14
12
Red Zone %
50%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-10
-7
Sack EPA
-3.45
-1.76
Penalties
6
6
Penalty Yards
49
63
Penalty EPA
-5.61
-5.68
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CLEBrownsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-4.5
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market66.1%
Model64.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+49
Home nfelo
1,509
Away nfelo
1,449
Home Field
+9.2
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+1.8
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+1.1
Net QB Adjustment
-20.2
Home QB Adjustment
-1.3
Away QB Adjustment
+18.9
Market Regression
+59.6
Final Difference
102.2
Model Spread
-4.0
Quarterbacks
D. Watson
Proj. Value
-2.7
Team Elo Adj
+18.9
B. Mayfield
Proj. Value
+1.2
Team Elo Adj
-1.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Texans Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
22
Yards / Game
11
21
Passing Yards / Game
3
24
Rushing Yards / Game
31
9
EPA
EPA / Play
10
22
EPA / Pass
6
23
EPA / Rush
23
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
28
Interceptions / Game
2
10
Fumbles / Game
20
8
Turnover EPA / Game
27
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
25
4th Down Efficiency
18
32
RZ Efficiency
25
16
Browns Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
27
Yards / Game
16
30
Passing Yards / Game
32
20
Rushing Yards / Game
4
32
EPA
EPA / Play
8
31
EPA / Pass
8
31
EPA / Rush
10
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
2
Interceptions / Game
4
32
Fumbles / Game
18
18
Turnover EPA / Game
23
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
29
4th Down Efficiency
27
14
RZ Efficiency
4
24
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Texans
3-7
SU
2-8
ATS
6-4
O/U
Browns
5-5
SU
3-7
ATS
6-4
O/U