nfelo logo

nfelo

Live
Platform
Kalshi
$10

$10 Bonus

Receive $10 when you sign up with Kalshi prediction market

Affiliate Disclosure: Some of the links and placements on this site may be affiliate links or paid partnerships. This means nfelo may receive compensation when you click these links or sign up for a partner’s service.

Offer Disclosure: Offers are for informational purposes only. Age, location, and other restrictions may apply. nfelo does not validate offer availability. See provider for full terms.

  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. texans @ browns week 11, 2014

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

© 2025 nfelo. All rights reserved.

Entertainment purposes only. The information contained on nfeloapp.com is not intended to be, and shall not be construed as, gambling advice, financial advice, or any other professional advice or service. nfeloapp.com and its owners assume no responsibility for errors or omissions. Please gamble responsibly.

HOU logo
HOUTexans
4-5
23
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
34°F
9 mph
7
CLEBrowns
6-3
CLE logo
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
34°F
9 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Texans
7
7
3
6
23
Browns
0
7
0
0
7

Spread

HOU logo
+4

Total

UNDER
42

Game Statistics

General
Texans logo
Browns logo
Total Yards
424
375
Total Plays
84
76
Yards / Play
5.0
4.9
EPA / Play
+0.03
-0.22
Passing Yards
--
310
Comp/Att
20/30(67%)
20/50(40%)
Yards / Pass
--
6.2
EPA / Pass
+0.28
-0.22
Rushing Yards
213
65
Rush Attempts
54
23
Yards / Rush
3.9
2.8
EPA / Rush
-0.02
-0.32
Downs & Conversions
Texans logo
Browns logo
1st Downs
29
24
Passing 1st downs
12
18
Rushing 1st downs
13
4
Penalty 1st downs
4
2
3rd Down %
39%
20%
3rd Down Conversions
7
3
3rd Down Attempts
18
15
Red Zone %
50%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Texans logo
Browns logo
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-4.12
-8.23
Sacks
--
3
Sack Yards
--
-20
Sack EPA
--
-4.33
Penalties
5
8
Penalty Yards
55
67
Penalty EPA
-9.80
-12.42

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
CLE logo
CLEBrownsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-4.0
Model
-4.0

Win Probability

Market64.7%
Model64.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+83
Home nfelo
1,488
Away nfelo
1,468
Home Field
+25.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-48.6
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+37.8
Home QB Adjustment
+2.7
Away QB Adjustment
-35.1
Market Regression
+39.9
Final Difference
105.3
Model Spread
-4.0

Quarterbacks

R. Mallett headshot

R. Mallett

Proj. Value
-2.9
Team Elo Adj
-35.1
No recent game data available
B. Hoyer headshot

B. Hoyer

Proj. Value
-3.7
Team Elo Adj
+2.7
Value
Ptile
10/03
-3.9
25
09/07
-1.8
37
09/14
-0.3
48
09/21
5.1
82
10/05
2.8
70
10/12
-0.7
45
10/19
-10.3
2
10/26
1.3
59
11/02
-4.0
26
11/06
-0.5
47

Team Matchup Ranks

Texans Offense vs Browns Defense
Texans logo
Browns logo

Total

Points / Game
14
9
Yards / Game
16
22
Passing Yards / Game
32
17
Rushing Yards / Game
5
32

EPA

EPA / Play
19
8
EPA / Pass
17
3
EPA / Rush
14
29

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
15
20
Interceptions / Game
11
2
Fumbles / Game
19
16
Turnover EPA / Game
16
24

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
22
11
4th Down Efficiency
6
29
RZ Efficiency
15
6
Browns Offense vs Texans Defense
Browns logo
Texans logo

Total

Points / Game
27
6
Yards / Game
23
16
Passing Yards / Game
22
23
Rushing Yards / Game
16
9

EPA

EPA / Play
27
2
EPA / Pass
22
2
EPA / Rush
23
8

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
6
27
Interceptions / Game
19
3
Fumbles / Game
4
6
Turnover EPA / Game
25
32

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
32
2
4th Down Efficiency
27
7
RZ Efficiency
23
4

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

HOU logo

Texans

4-6
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/29
-6
L
W
U
09/07
11
W
W
U
09/14
16
W
W
O
09/21
-13
L
L
O
09/28
6
W
W
U
10/05
-3
L
W
U
10/09
-5
L
L
O
10/20
-7
L
L
O
10/26
14
W
W
O
11/02
-10
L
L
O
CLE logo

Browns

6-4
SU
5-3-2
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/29
-13
L
L
U
09/07
-3
L
W
O
09/14
2
W
W
O
09/21
-2
L
P
O
10/05
1
W
P
O
10/12
21
W
W
U
10/19
-18
L
L
U
10/26
10
W
W
U
11/02
5
W
L
U
11/06
21
W
W
U