HOUTexans
4-5
23
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
34°F
9 mph
7
CLEBrowns
6-3
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
34°F
9 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Texans
7
7
3
6
23
Browns
0
7
0
0
7
Spread
+4
Total
UNDER
42
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
424
375
Total Plays
84
76
Yards / Play
5.0
4.9
EPA / Play
+0.03
-0.22
Passing Yards
--
310
Comp/Att
20/30(67%)
20/50(40%)
Yards / Pass
--
6.2
EPA / Pass
+0.28
-0.22
Rushing Yards
213
65
Rush Attempts
54
23
Yards / Rush
3.9
2.8
EPA / Rush
-0.02
-0.32
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
29
24
Passing 1st downs
12
18
Rushing 1st downs
13
4
Penalty 1st downs
4
2
3rd Down %
39%
20%
3rd Down Conversions
7
3
3rd Down Attempts
18
15
Red Zone %
50%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-4.12
-8.23
Sacks
--
3
Sack Yards
--
-20
Sack EPA
--
-4.33
Penalties
5
8
Penalty Yards
55
67
Penalty EPA
-9.80
-12.42
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CLEBrownsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-4.0
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market64.7%
Model64.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+83
Home nfelo
1,488
Away nfelo
1,468
Home Field
+25.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-48.6
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+37.8
Home QB Adjustment
+2.7
Away QB Adjustment
-35.1
Market Regression
+39.9
Final Difference
105.3
Model Spread
-4.0
Quarterbacks
R. Mallett
Proj. Value
-2.9
Team Elo Adj
-35.1
No recent game data available
B. Hoyer
Proj. Value
-3.7
Team Elo Adj
+2.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Texans Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
9
Yards / Game
16
22
Passing Yards / Game
32
17
Rushing Yards / Game
5
32
EPA
EPA / Play
19
8
EPA / Pass
17
3
EPA / Rush
14
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
20
Interceptions / Game
11
2
Fumbles / Game
19
16
Turnover EPA / Game
16
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
11
4th Down Efficiency
6
29
RZ Efficiency
15
6
Browns Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
6
Yards / Game
23
16
Passing Yards / Game
22
23
Rushing Yards / Game
16
9
EPA
EPA / Play
27
2
EPA / Pass
22
2
EPA / Rush
23
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
27
Interceptions / Game
19
3
Fumbles / Game
4
6
Turnover EPA / Game
25
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
32
2
4th Down Efficiency
27
7
RZ Efficiency
23
4
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Texans
4-6
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Browns
6-4
SU
5-3-2
ATS
4-6
O/U