HOUTexans
2-2
21
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
028
ARICardinals
1-2
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Texans
0
0
7
14
21
Cardinals
7
14
0
1
22
Spread
-6
Total
UNDER
50.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
416
340
Total Plays
71
55
Yards / Play
5.9
6.2
EPA / Play
-0.09
-0.02
Passing Yards
--
296
Comp/Att
35/50(70%)
26/38(68%)
Yards / Pass
--
7.8
EPA / Pass
+0.15
+0.07
Rushing Yards
45
44
Rush Attempts
21
16
Yards / Rush
2.1
2.8
EPA / Rush
-0.40
-0.05
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
23
19
Passing 1st downs
17
15
Rushing 1st downs
5
3
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
31%
22%
3rd Down Conversions
4
2
3rd Down Attempts
13
9
Red Zone %
60%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
5
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-7.69
-6.25
Sacks
--
1
Sack Yards
--
-6
Sack EPA
--
-2.21
Penalties
6
7
Penalty Yards
53
40
Penalty EPA
-4.41
-4.48
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ARICardinalsFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-6.0
Model
-6.0
Win Probability
Market69.3%
Model69.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+113
Home nfelo
1,529
Away nfelo
1,503
Home Field
+91.6
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+17.9
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-4.8
Home QB Adjustment
+4.8
Away QB Adjustment
+9.6
Market Regression
+10.5
Final Difference
141.4
Model Spread
-6.0
Quarterbacks
M. Schaub
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+9.6
K. Warner
Proj. Value
+2.9
Team Elo Adj
+4.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Texans Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
20
Yards / Game
5
24
Passing Yards / Game
10
20
Rushing Yards / Game
30
16
EPA
EPA / Play
9
15
EPA / Pass
6
15
EPA / Rush
29
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
28
Interceptions / Game
18
8
Fumbles / Game
25
26
Turnover EPA / Game
10
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
11
4th Down Efficiency
4
19
RZ Efficiency
12
18
Cardinals Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
16
Yards / Game
12
14
Passing Yards / Game
8
16
Rushing Yards / Game
27
10
EPA
EPA / Play
17
16
EPA / Pass
13
11
EPA / Rush
19
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
27
Interceptions / Game
17
21
Fumbles / Game
31
20
Turnover EPA / Game
5
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
20
4th Down Efficiency
13
7
RZ Efficiency
1
30
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Texans
7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
2-2-6
O/U
Cardinals
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
1-2-7
O/U