HOUTexans
1-5
5
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
031
ARICardinals
6-0
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Texans
0
3
0
0
3
Cardinals
0
17
7
7
31
Spread
-20.5
Total
UNDER
47
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
160
397
Total Plays
49
69
Yards / Play
3.3
5.8
EPA / Play
-0.56
+0.03
Passing Yards
118
225
Comp/Att
23/32(72%)
20/28(71%)
Yards / Pass
3.7
8.0
EPA / Pass
-0.51
+0.31
Rushing Yards
42
172
Rush Attempts
15
37
Yards / Rush
2.8
4.6
EPA / Rush
-0.41
-0.07
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
8
24
Passing 1st downs
6
15
Rushing 1st downs
--
7
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
15%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
2
6
3rd Down Attempts
13
12
Red Zone %
NaN%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
--
3
Red Zone Attempts
--
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-5.94
-4.47
Sacks
2
4
Sack Yards
-17
-36
Sack EPA
-8.01
-6.35
Penalties
8
7
Penalty Yards
80
54
Penalty EPA
-11.38
-6.01
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ARICardinalsFavored
Opening
-17.0
Current
-20.5
Model
-19.0
Win Probability
Market94.2%
Model93.0%
Spread Pick
Texans+20.5
Expected Value
+2.5%
Cover Probability
53.7%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+374
Home nfelo
1,577
Away nfelo
1,399
Home Field
+62.9
Base HFA
+41.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.4
Time Adj
+7.4
Net QB Adjustment
+133.1
Home QB Adjustment
+11.9
Away QB Adjustment
-121.1
Market Regression
+49.4
Final Difference
449.2
Model Spread
-19.0
Quarterbacks
D. Mills
Proj. Value
-1.6
Team Elo Adj
-121.1
K. Murray
Proj. Value
+2.4
Team Elo Adj
+11.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Texans Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
16
Yards / Game
32
12
Passing Yards / Game
22
10
Rushing Yards / Game
32
21
EPA
EPA / Play
30
9
EPA / Pass
28
15
EPA / Rush
30
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
15
Interceptions / Game
21
19
Fumbles / Game
13
2
Turnover EPA / Game
22
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
13
4th Down Efficiency
27
9
RZ Efficiency
27
22
Cardinals Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
27
Yards / Game
9
31
Passing Yards / Game
10
26
Rushing Yards / Game
14
31
EPA
EPA / Play
14
26
EPA / Pass
11
26
EPA / Rush
12
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
9
Interceptions / Game
10
8
Fumbles / Game
1
18
Turnover EPA / Game
24
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
26
4th Down Efficiency
10
20
RZ Efficiency
14
20
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Texans
1-9
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Cardinals
8-2
SU
7-3
ATS
4-6
O/U